Oilers Out In Round 1, Start Offseason Planning

My realistic, unbiased expectation for the Edmonton Oilers in this year’s Playoffs was a second round appearance at the very least. I believed the experience advantage over Anaheim in Round 1 would prevail. It didn’t, but on the bright side, no goalie pads were pulled this time. Give credit where it’s due; we were bested by a great young team with fresher legs. Given how embarrassing the Pacific Division teams were during the regular season, a third round appearance may’ve seemed possible, but I would’ve viewed it as a miracle if they did go that far. It’s also pretty funny that a team with only two three game winning streaks all season long would’ve needed another three game winning streak just to advance. Remember how big a meme that was? Imagine if they pulled that off in late April?

Oilers fans who don’t spend every hour panicking on social media apps kind of already sensed that this wasn’t the season to win it all, even if they had beaten the Ducks. That doesn’t mean I was cheering against them; it doesn’t mean they didn’t try. We’ve watched them long enough to know when they really have it. While anything can happen between April and June, it was visibly evident that they didn’t really have it. None of us believed they could be a wacky roller coaster again. Was the Overtime winner in Game 4 controversial? Arguably, yes. Were some of Anaheim’s goals unlucky bounces against our team? Yes, they were. Going from 104 points in 2024, then to 101 in 2025, then way down to 91 and nearly missing the Playoffs entirely in 2026, is objectively bad. But this wasn’t a talent and ability issue; it was mostly a fatigue and energy issue.

After back-to-back Cup Finals, three Conference Finals in the four years prior to this one, nagging injuries either during this season or as a result of those longer Playoff runs, as well as key players taking part in both the 4Nations Face-Off and Winter Olympics, it’s not wrong or unfair to suggest that this group could use the extra two months off; provided, of course, that they make the necessary decisions before October 2026. Pro athletes won’t make excuses; it’s just human nature. This is also why I’d prefer some Oilers players not to spend up to a month at this year’s IIHF World Championships. But I can’t force them not to play for their countries. Congrats and good luck to them, though I secretly hope they’re not in it long. Nothing personal, strictly business.

The only annoying thing about losing is seeing other fanbases and media types do their annual tradition of taking season-ending interviews out of context and rage-baiting with the same, baseless “97 and 29 Want Out” narratives. I’m not overly worried about how this season ended because I have greater hopes and concerns for what is to come this summer. I won’t keep giving these excuses if they bow out early again next year, as the two faces of the franchise were still blunt and honest about what they want to see moving forward. What must they do to prevent another early exit? How can they regain their status as serious contenders? Other young teams similar to Anaheim are starting to trend upwards, so there’s no time to waste. The keys to the off-season are…

Goaltending: The most polarizing topic within the Oilersphere was somehow made worse by a trade in December. Just about every Oilers fan is on board with bringing back Connor Ingram as the #2 option, but Tristan Jarry didn’t turn out to be everyone’s favorite Christmas present. Ingram became the designated #1 because the goalie making over $5M disappointed. Jarry looked fine in his first couple of Oilers games, but then got injured. I hoped that the Olympic break would be the resting time he needed. Sadly, it made no difference. The Game 4 loss wasn’t his fault, but I’m still not a huge fan overall all of what I saw. We gave him a chance, and we quickly gave up. Just because you very badly need to improve something, that doesn’t make it okay to seek out any underwhelming option. It’s a universally hated plan that fails more often than it succeeds. Either go big or go home, as they say. If they attempt to move out Jarry, which team can be as easily convinced as Edmonton was to take him? If our team is just a league-average save percentage away from scaring the rest of the league, how many other teams are willing to help them without asking for an arm and a leg? Provided that the same desperation move doesn’t happen a second time in less than a calendar year, I couldn’t care less about the other positions on the Oilers. Focus on this one first, then worry about everything else.

Cap Friendly: Now begins Connor McDavid’s overly generous two-year discount extension, which he signed last year in October, just before the season opener. A longer term would’ve meant higher dollars, but our captain took another one for the team. As the salary cap starts to increase, Oilers management has this summer and next summer to spend their extra money wisely. “I want to win in Edmonton. That’s my focus.” is a quote from McDavid that’ll never be cherry-picked league-wide. But even with another future extension, he’s not always going to accept just $12.5M. This organization needs to set a standard with, not one, but two busy off-seasons before he becomes the first $20M hockey player in history.

How Much Change?: During his media availability, Leon Draisaitl mentioned that he thought the Oilers in 2024 were the best roster he’s been on, even naming a few former teammates. In hindsight, Jeff Jackson was wrong to change so much after losing a Finals Game 7 by one single goal. If Draisaitl and McDavid miss the camaraderie from two seasons ago, how does that impact any ideas of bold moves that might involve specific players or personnel? I feel that some pending UFA’s should stay, just to keep some familiarity for next season. There’s been talk of Kris Knoblauch not sticking around as the head coach, and I’ve rolled my eyes at constant coaching changes in the past. But if recent stories about how he’s coached are true, I’m changing my feelings on this matter and hoping for a new voice. Stan Bowman couldn’t choose his own coaching staff when he was brought in as the new GM. This would now be his chance. Potential for attempting to trade Darnell Nurse has gotten bigger than in previous years, with one rumor that he was offered to the Maple Leafs at the Trade Deadline. How does one simply move $9.25M per year without another bad contract going our way or without adding a sweetener? I’ve commented before about the strong friendship between Nurse, McDavid, and Draisaitl. Connor Murphy has only been an Oiler for two months, yet he spoke highly about Darnell as a partner and leader during his media availability. These things have always made the idea of moving the 11 year Oiler blueliner seem impossible. If firing McDavid’s current NHL and old OHL head coach actually happens, perhaps he needs to accept making another sacrifice.