
The Edmonton Oilers decided to bring back Paul Coffey behind the bench. This decision was made because the defence group hasn’t been good enough, and hopefully Coffey can provide a boost. They’ve struggled on the penalty kill, and they’ve given up too many quality chances at 5-on-5. Therefore, a change was necessary. However, they need more than just a new face behind the bench.
The Oilers are ranked 25th in the league in both the penalty kill and goals against. They’re only 76.9 percent on the penalty kill and have allowed 3.29 goals per game. Edmonton has also allowed the sixth-most high-danger shots against, at 123. For perspective, the Los Angeles Kings have allowed the least at only 76. If they want to find success down the stretch, those numbers must improve.
The Oilers need to do something different because what they’re doing clearly isn’t working. The coaching staff hasn’t hesitated to mix up the forward lines, but for whatever reason, the defensive pairings have mainly remained intact, especially in the top four. Evan Bouchard has been stapled alongside Mattias Ekholm, and Darnell Nurse has primarily played with Jake Walman when the latter has been healthy. But it might be time to make some changes and mix up the pairings.
While Nurse doesn’t necessarily deserve a promotion to the top pair, playing him with the team’s best defenceman could elevate his game and make the team better. The veteran blueliner has had the most success alongside Bouchard this season, so the team should explore that option.
In 85:23 of ice time at 5-on-5 with Bouchard, that pairing has been on for eight goals for and only three against for a 72.73 goals-for percentage. That duo has a 30-16 advantage in high-danger chances when on the ice, which is 65.22 percent of the high-danger opportunities.
To put that into perspective, Bouchard has 56.27 percent of the high-danger chances paired with Ekholm, and Nurse has an underwhelming 43.18 percent of the high-danger chances paired with Walman. The numbers speak for themselves, so Nurse should get a look with Bouchard after the break.
Ekholm has battled injuries, and his age looks to be catching up to him. So, it might be time to limit his minutes and shelter his matchups down the stretch. He’s still a capable blueliner and could find success in a lesser role. He can be a true shutdown defenceman on the third pair, and the team needs that.
An Ekholm and Ty Emberson pairing could work. They’ve only played together for 14:19 at 5-on-5, but they have shown potential. They’ve outscored their opponents 3-1, including having 60 percent of the high-danger opportunities in their limited ice time. They also have a 61.21 expected goals-for percentage. Those are positive numbers, so it would be interesting to see if they could sustain that over a larger sample size.
This pairing would have the most uncertainty, but why not try Walman with Spencer Stastney, especially if the other two pairs are effective? Out of these three suggested pairings, this one has been the worst, but that has a lot to do with Walman’s lacklustre play. They’ve played 70:01 together at 5-on-5 and haven’t looked great, which is why adding a right-shot blueliner at the trade deadline is imperative.
They only have 35 percent of the high-danger chances and have been outscored 3-1, but haven’t allowed a high-danger goal. Edmonton only has four games before the trade deadline, so hopefully, this pairing will be temporary. If they add a right-shot defenceman, they can finally move Walman to the left side, where he’s more comfortable, instead of playing him on the right side. At the end of the day, the Oilers need a lot more from Walman because he hasn’t been nearly good enough.
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Statistics are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.
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