Oilers’ start will be more important if McDavid enters 2025-26 without extension

The Edmonton Oilers can’t afford to get off to another poor start this season. Especially not if there’s still uncertainty around Connor McDavid’s future with the team.

The Oilers have fallen flat on their faces to start the past few seasons. While they managed to bounce back and comfortably make the playoffs, bad starts don’t always come without consequences. Team morale may be more fragile this time around if things go south in October again.

Recent History

In 2023-24, the Oilers suffered a blowout loss on opening night, falling 8-1 to the Vancouver Canucks. They followed that up with another loss to the Canucks and continued that slide all the way until mid-November, when the team fired head coach Jay Woodcroft after a 3-9-1 start.

The Oilers flipped the script under Knoblauch and had a 46-18-5 record the rest of the season. Their Finishing, goaltending, and transition defence were all struggling prior to Knoblauch’s arrival, and all significantly improved. Their Save percentage and shooting percentage both went from bottom-two in the NHL to top-eight the rest of the season, and the odd man rushes against became fewer and farther in between.  Ultimately, they came up one game short of a Stanley Cup, losing to the Florida Panthers in 7 games.

The 2024-25 season started similarly, with an embarrassing 0-3 start where the Oilers got outscored 15-3. Fortunately, they clawed their way back to .500 by the ninth game of the season and quickly returned to form, again making it to the Stanley Cup Final by season’s end.

The McDavid Factor

Clearly, the Oilers are a mature group. They have proved they can handle the ups and downs of an NHL season and deal with external noise when they get off to a tough start. This season could be different.

The Preseason is just around the corner, and McDavid has yet to sign an extension. That fact alone isn’t necessarily a cause for panic, but he does not appear to be taking this decision lightly. There are a ton of factors for him to consider.

“All options are on the table. That would mean length of term, short term, long term, no term. It’s all options on the table, as I alluded to, so that would include a short-term deal,” said McDavid.

McDavid has stated his intention to win in Edmonton, but he also hasn’t publicly ruled out the possibility of signing a short-term deal or not signing in Edmonton at all. Ultimately, he wants to win above all else. If he feels any doubt about the direction of the Franchise, that may affect his decision.

The media has picked up on the uncertainty in McDavid’s recent comments, and his contract status has dominated the news cycle. The noise could reach a fever pitch if the Oilers get off to a poor start.

On the latest episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman compared that potential scenario to the drama in Vancouver last season when the Canucks didn’t play well to start the season, and rumours surrounding their fractured dressing room began to spiral out of control.

“Like I look at Vancouver last year, it got to a point where the noise absolutely affected them […] If you’re winning, you can shut out a lot of stuff, but if for whatever reason Edmonton starts badly, that’s where you really risk it,” said Friedman.

We don’t know yet if McDavid will put pen to paper before the start of the 2025-26 NHL season, but if he doesn’t, the best way to reduce the distraction is to win. It wouldn’t hurt to see young players like Matthew Savoie and Ike Howard make positive impacts early on, too. Reasons for optimism with the Franchise’s present and future could go a long way in easing the tension for players and fans.