Oilers Thoughts: Looking at the Dallas Stars’ struggling offence

There’s no denying that the Dallas Stars will be a formidable opponent for the Oilers. They’ve made it to three straight Western Conference Finals but haven’t reached the final dance. Why? because they can’t score goals.

You’ll remember the battle between Edmonton and Dallas last season. The Oilers took Game 1 in double overtime on the road, thanks to Connor McDavid, but the Stars held the series lead heading into Game 4. They scored five goals in Game 3, and it looked like Edmonton didn’t belong.

Things changed quickly, with Edmonton outscoring them 10-4 and closing the series in six games. Granted, it took a career performance from Stuart Skinner in Game 6 — allowing one goal on 34 shots — but perhaps that also tells the tale of what the Stars’ offence is about.

The most significant difference for Dallas this season is Mikko Rantanen. Acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes at the trade deadline, Rantanen had a slow start in Texas but has found his footing in the playoffs. He was outstanding in closing the Colorado series, racking up 11 points in three games and netting a third-period hat trick in Game 7. Rantanen started the Winnipeg series similarly, with a hat trick in Game 1 and another three-point outing in Game 3. When he’s on, he’s hard to stop — but when the offence isn’t flowing, few on the Stars step up to replace his impact.

Nine Dallas forwards have scored one or fewer goals this postseason. Outside their top line of Roope Hintz, Mikael Granlund and Mikko Rantanen, only Wyatt Johnston has more than two goals (four). Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson and Matt Duchene have combined for one goal and are a collective -18. They’ve scored the sixth-most goals (34), but they’re 11th in goals against (2.62) and have been shut out in three games — the most in the playoffs.

Dallas has the playoff team that can show up, but they haven’t yet. So when you see people suggesting the Stars have a superior forward group to Edmonton, they’re wrong. The Oilers have the edge at five-on-five because they get significantly more contributions from players other than Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The Stars hold the advantage on special teams, with a power play converting at 30.8 per cent and a penalty kill running at 86.1 per cent. Edmonton did get the penalty kill clicking towards the end of the Vegas series, but still couldn’t find a way to connect on the power play. That unit needs to get going early in this series.

Once again, Edmonton is being undervalued while its opponent is overrated. Let’s hope the outcome mirrors the last two series.