Oilers, Trent Frederic are ‘close to getting done’ an eight-year contract

Frederic, 27, arrived in Edmonton ahead of the deadline in a three-team trade that saw the Oilers give up a 2025 second round pick, a 2026 fourth round pick and prospects Max Wanner and Shane Lachance. Injured at the time of acquisition, Frederic would remain out of the lineup before returning for a game on April 5th against the Los Angeles Kings, only playing 7:10 as he re-aggravated an ankle injury.

He was on the shelf for the remainder of the regular season but played in all 22 playoff games, scoring one goal and four points, though he was playing through some kind of injury, as Friedman highlighted above.

There’s undeniable risk in such a long-term contract for a player of Frederic’s type, as power forwards often suffer a steeper aging curve than others. The Oilers have signed bigger forwards like him to longer term deals before.

Milan Lucic, then 28, signed a seven-year, $6-million AAV deal with his cap hit taking up 8.22 percent of the salary cap. Evander Kane, then 30, signed a four-year, $5.125-million AAV deal with his cap hit taking up 6.21 percent of the salary cap. Zack Kassian, then 29, signed a four-year, $3.2-million AAV deal with his cap hit taking up 3.93 percent of the salary cap.

Looking at what those cap hit percentages applicable to next years $95.5-million salary cap, Lucic’s deal would cost $7.85-million, Kane’s $5.93-million and Kassian’s $3.75-million.

Evolving Hockey projects Frederic to sign a three-year, $2.712-million cap hit deal, with a projected eight-year deal carrying a $4.81-million cap hit. AFP Analytics, meanwhile, project him to sign a two-year deal carrying a $3.448-million cap hit.

A longer term deal should mean the Oilers are able to lower Frederic’s cap hit, but here’s some risk to it. The biggest concern is the term and if Frederic, who according to Hockey Viz has produced at the level of a top-six player or better in each of the last three seasons, can remain healthy. Over the last five seasons he’s missed, on average, 13.5 games per season.

But with the salary cap set to potentially rise to $112.5-million by 2027-28, a deal carrying a cap hit in the $3.5-million range shouldn’t be too difficult to manage. In the short term, it could mean that more roster changes are coming.