The Panthers ability to switch positions at full speed as the puck moves side to side is incredibly impressive. They challenge you in every part of the offensive to make the perfect play to exit. Here is another example with the emphasis on how strong the pressure is along the wall.

The clip starts with the ideal F1-F2-F3 set-up. Then when the puck goes up the wall notice how many Panthers are squeezed to the one side. This shrinks the area of play for Carolina to the point where they have limited options and eventually give up the puck.

Here is one final clip on quickly this forecheck can deliver bad results to the opposition. Brad Marchand enters as the F1, and look at his linemates position already as he drives the puck carrier around the net. The option the puck carrier chooses is to go high off the glass with his backhand. It fails. The puck is turned over and in the Leafs net seconds later.

Now that does not mean this forecheck cannot be defeated, but it requires a commitment from all five players with an emphasis on a forward, likely the centre, being low in his zone to help the defence.

Let’s take a look at the last clip again from a different angle because the Leaf puck carrier had an option. It was in the middle of the ice as soon as he rounded the net. The player was there but O’Reilly wasn’t comfortable making the play.

Here is another example of how low support can help. In this instance, the Leaf defender gathers the puck and makes a nice reverse play. He can do this because his defence partner is nice and low as is the centre. Now the Leafs have two passing options to exit. Once the Leafs puck carrier makes the pass over, the Leafs can exit the zone on the attack because the Panthers are overcommitted low.

The Oilers have the defensive skill on all three pairings to make plays like this to counter the forecheck. In addition, the centre group is very adept at playing low in its zone and being able to breakout on their own. If there is one concern, it would be the Nurse-Kulak pairing. Neither is an exceptional passer of the puck. More importantly, one of them will always be on their weak side which can cause handling and passing issues, which we saw Kulak struggle with against Dallas in the last game.

Florida’s Neutral Zone is the same as the Offensive Zone

This will be the theme of the entire post. The Panthers neutral zone forecheck is aggressive with the goal of pushing up the ice and making the other team make plays quicker than they want. It is the standard 1-2-2 forecheck where F1 attacks the puck and the two forwards will hold the ice between the blue line and centre. The defenders read off their forwards and will be very aggressive. Here is a good example of the pressure and the chaos.

First, the F1 for the Panthers on the check is very aggressive. The forward will come right to the puck taking away a passing option. Now look at the up ice shot. First, the Leafs have only one player in a position to receive a pass because of the quick pressure. Second, the Panthers are askew as well with their one defender way up ice. However, it works because the Panthers still outnumber the Leafs up ice. The puck is transitioned and the Panthers move it back into the Leafs zone.

However, the Panthers neutral zone is not as effective as its offensive zone. Remember at the opening we talked about the Panthers want to push up the ice and also push out to the walls. The key to a lot of this is the Panthers defenders. The Florida defensive group will move up the ice on passing options. This can take them away from the middle of the ice which leaves some gaps. Take a look at a couple of clips.

In the first one, the Leafs winger heads up the ice and as the pass goes, you can see the Florida defender is marking him outside. So the pass through the middle is easy.

Here is another clip with the same set-up. The Leafs winger moves up the ice. The Panthers defender steps up to take him. This leaves the middle of the ice open and the Leafs take advantage.

Now these are not easy plays, but they are there for a team willing to attack the middle. I wonder if the Oilers would be willing to try the set play they have run with one of their defenders posting up at centre ice to create a new look for the Panthers. Remember this play. The Oilers create a confusion by setting up in the middle of the ice with one of their defenceman. Notice the Utah defenders spread out to the wall. This is something the Panthers will do. Can it work?

The Panthers Defensive Zone

This is the most chaotic zone from a tactical perspective for the Panthers. They can be effective here, but they will also give up some ten bell chances against. The defensive scheme is really a pressure scheme all over the zone. It is a de facto man on man style of defending with some focus on ensuring the net front is protected. What is certain is when the puck goes up to the blue line, the Panthers will press up looking for transition plays by squeezing teams against the blue line.

The reverse happens when the puck gets low. The Panthers will collapse low to where ever the puck goes.

Here is a clip which shows what the Panthers are willing to trade. Being hyper-aggressive leads to some opportunities that are fairly wide open. Watch this clip and notice what happens net front.

Here is another one where a high skill play leads to a great chance.

The Panthers will absolutely trade these chances for this type of defensive pressure all night. The belief being the opposition will not be able to handle the pressure on most occasions and lead to counter-attacks. This will be a battle for the Oilers. Can their skill players make plays under intense time and space pressure? If they can, the Oilers will likely get some great looks at the net.

Series Notes

For me, I believe this series will get decided in the battle of the Florida forecheck and the Oilers ability to break it. The Oilers ran a group last season that has four returnees to this Cup Final in Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse and Kulak. Two of those players dominated in Ekholm and Bouchard. Kulak and Nurse struggled. The difference is Kulak does not have Ceci as a partner and Nurse does not have Philip Broberg. Kulak and Nurse have each other this season with the third pairing made up of Jake Walman and John Klingberg. That is a much better set-up for the Oilers.

As mentioned, the worry is whether Nurse and Kulak struggle passing out of the forecheck. The pairing has been ok in the playoffs — they are mostly breakeven on expected goals with their actual goals for being 2-6 at 5v5 according to Natural Stat Trick. Against Dallas, the pairing broke even in expected and actual goals. The third pairing has a nice combination of mobility in Walman and passing in Klingberg. This pairing might struggle if they get hemmed in, but on the forecheck there should be options for them.

In terms of forward match-ups, the Panthers went strength on strength with Barkov on McDavid. McDavid handled it well, but had Zach Hyman on the wing. This is an important caveat. Hyman’s size and play this playoffs will be missed without a doubt. The Leon Draisaitl line will likely see the Bennett line who had a very strong series against Carolina. The winger pair of Kane and Kapanen can size up very well against the line as opposed to Aho and Jarvis. Indeed, I really like this line against Florida.

The issue that sticks out loud and clear is the Adam Henrique line. His line with Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark were dominated territorially by the Florida third line. Two-thirds of that line return in Lundell and Luostarinen, although Luostarinen’s health is a concern. Brad Marchard joined the line after the trade line and the group has been successful. There was some struggle against Carolina, but Adam Henrique’s group with Brown and Frederic will be challenged. I wonder a lot if the Janmark line plays a more prominent role for the Oilers against this line. This will be a very interesting match-up look given the Oilers have the home ice advantage.

I don’t really expect the specialty teams to make an outsized impact, however, it should be noted the Oilers scored twice short-handed last year against the Panthers. The Panthers run a two defencemen unit to start the powerplay with Jones and Aaron Ekblad which is a new look. This should help stabilize on the chances against.  The Panthers then slide to a one defenceman look with the second group, which is interesting to me. If the Oilers run McDavid out there later in the penalty kill, he should get some looks.

The critical piece for the Oilers is they cannot start the series like they did last season. This first game is far more important to them then the Panthers. The entire team needs to be ready to go and Stuart Skinner needs to give them some timely goaltending like he provided in the Stars series. If the Oilers had one just one of the first three last season, they win the Stanley Cup.

That’s it for the tactical preview of the Edmonton and Florida Stanley Cup rematch. Thanks for reading.

ee you back here on Thursday morning to review Game 1.