It’s coming on Christmas, and they’re cutting down trees and putting up reindeer. It’s also time for the Ottawa Senators to send Santa Claus their wish list.
Not that it’s done them much good these past seven seasons. The miserly old elf has behaved more like the Grinch leaving the Senators feeling like little Cindy Lou Who of Whoville who mistook the Grinch for Santa and famously asked, “Santy Claus – why, why are you taking our Christmas tree? WHY?”
Even so, the team hopes they’ve avoided Kris Kringle’s Naughty List this year and that they’ll find what they want under their tree. Here’s a look at what they should be wishing for.
It’s a long shot, but the Senators and their fans might as well ask for the Cup. All the fat man in red can say is no. Besides, maybe Hell could freeze over if it’s a cold one in Ottawa this winter.
Even so, for the record, BetMGM puts the odds of a Stanley Cup parade down Elgin Street next spring at +5000. Dismal, to be sure, but for just a loonie, a bold Ottawa punter could walk away with $5,000 if the Senators pull a Miracle on 34th Street and win Lord Stanley’s silverware.
Shane Pinto – take special note. You can’t go anywhere near BetMGM, even if it is Christmas.
If the Stanley Cup isn’t something Santa Claus can get down the Senators’ chimney, then maybe a playoff run next spring could be. Still, the odds are against it. To clinch a spot in the postseason, the Senators will likely need at least 105 points. That means, from now on, they’ll need a points percentage (PTS%) of about .710. To put that into perspective, no playoff team last year notched a PTS% that high.
To take a wild-card spot, Ottawa would probably need at least 95 points, meaning they’ll need to notch a PTS% of .620 from here on in. Last season, only 10 of the NHL’s 32 teams played at that level or better. At this point, the Senators are ranked 25th in The Hockey Writers’ NHL power rankings.
Okay, if neither the Stanley Cup nor making the playoffs is in the cards this season, then the Senators might be okay with the faint hope of a playoff run. That would warm the frozen hearts of Senators fans in the depths of the cruel Ottawa winter.
Senators’ president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Seve Staios is rumoured to be shopping for a defenceman (from Graeme Nichols, “Josh Norris Trade Speculation: Are the Ottawa Senators Considering A Breakup Of Their Core?”, The Hockey News, 26/11/2024).
Despite the addition last summer of right-hand shot Nick Jensen to skate with Thomas Chabot, the Senators have a middling blue line ranked 18th in the league by The Hockey Writers – the venerable publication for which I happily toil.
The Senators’ weaknesses on the blue line are many and added to them this season is scanty goal-scoring. The team’s blueliners have turned the goal lamp red just five times. That pales in comparison to the 15 goals blueliners skating for the Atlantic Division-leading Florida Panthers have put up. What’s more, the Senators’ third defensive pair is unfailingly weak, year after year. This campaign is no exception, with rookie Tyler Kleven skating alongside Jacob-Bernard Docker with his shaky hold on a roster spot.
Yet signing a player of similar calibre to Artem Zub or Jensen could cost Staios at least $4 million. Santa – the Senators could use your help – or cash!
An actual NHL-sized rink is going to be tough for Rudolph and his team to pull down to Ottawa from the North Pole. So, a cool $1.5 billion in cash from one or all three levels of government for the Sens to build a new one in downtown Ottawa would be just fine!
Even so, not even Santa Claus could make the case that moving the team from Kanata to a more central location in the city makes any business sense. At least, not unless somebody other than owner Michael Andlauer and his partners pay all or at least most of it.
It’s more likely the Senators will win a Stanley Cup (or Hell freezes over) before one or more of the City of Ottawa, the Province of Ontario or the government of Canada fronts the cash for a new rink. They’re all broke, and Canadians are not likely to look too kindly on their rulers subsidizing billionaires to build new rinks where multi-millionaire hockey players can shoot rubber around.
Still, Senators fans – at least those who don’t live in Kanata – can dream.
Nothing is more nauseating for the Senators and their fans than listening to thousands of crazed Toronto Maple Leafs fans in Canadian Tire Centre (CTC) chanting “Go Leafs Go”. But it’s unbearable to hear those chants when the Maple Leafs are laying a beating on the Senators.
A ban on Hogtown fans even visiting Ottawa would be wonderful. Failing that, a new City of Ottawa bylaw banning the wearing of that blue garment Toronto fans pass off as a sweater would do.
On Dec. 10, Andlauer accused the New York Rangers of “soft tampering” with Brady Tkachuk, trying to plant the idea in his head that he’d be happier in the Big Apple. Apparently, the instrument of their diabolical plan was Larry Brooks who claimed in a Dec. 6 New York Post article that the Rangers were targeting Tkachuk.
Andlauer has yet to present a shred of evidence that the Rangers were in fact “softly” tampering (as opposed to “hard” tampering?) with the club’s contractual relationship with its young captain, and Gary Bettman says he’s still waiting on a formal complaint about it all.
Even so, Ottawa fans hope Santa shoves a big black bag of coal down the Rangers’ chimney for even thinking about stealing Tkachuk. Shame on them.
If borrowing a basketball metaphor and using it in a piece on hockey can be forgiven, 50 goals for Tkachuk isn’t a slam dunk. But if he’s nice and not too naughty (always a challenge for him), it’s something Santa may be able to put under the tree this year. At this point, the big captain is on track for 55 goals. That would be a personal best if he can do it.
His teammates just need to fire more pucks on net for him to shovel past sprawling opposing goaltenders.
The young German may well find a gift card under his Tannenbaum for over 100 points this season. He has marked up the score sheet for 36 of them after 28 games, and at that rate, he is on track for 105.
Could he lay claim to the title of top German point-getter in the NHL this season? Perhaps, but with the Edmonton Oilers’ Cologne-born Leon Draisaitl on track for 111 points, he has some work to do.
Between them, the Senators’ bottom-six has scored just 11 goals in 28 games. That’s about 12% of all the goals the team has scored this season, and it’s not good enough.
To win in the NHL, teams need a much more even distribution of production. To wit, the 2023-24 Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers can count on a potent bottom-six that this year accounts for over a quarter of all the goals the team has scored.
In the 15 games the Senators have played in CTC this season, they have won nine and lost six for a win percentage of 60%. On the road it’s almost the reverse, with the Senators losing nine of their 13 road games and winning only four.
That doesn’t bode well for the rest of December – where they’ll play seven of their remaining eight games on the road. How many of those games they can win, with four of them against opponents now holding a playoff berth, could determine their season.
Starter Linus Ullmark is starting to look more like the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner that led Staios to bring him to Bytown last summer, and this fall, extend his contract through to the end of the 2028-29 season. Even so, none of that has solved the Senators’ enduring problems between the pipes. The team needs dependable backup goaltending, and they don’t have it in Anton Forsberg.
Ullmark has never played many more than 40 games in a campaign, and that means Forsberg will see action in at least 20 or more games between now and the end of the regular season. Then there’s playoff games if the Senators make it that far. To this point, Forsberg has a record of five wins and six losses in the 11 games he’s played, notching an underwhelming save percentage of .889 and a goals-against average of 2.95. This is hardly the stuff on an NHL-calibre goaltender.
Better backup goaltending is going to be tough for Santa to deliver to Ottawa. Netminding talent in Belleville isn’t up to NHL standards at this point. Few goalies are on the market, and those that are would be a problem cap-wise for the Senators. Besides, Forsberg would be hard to move in a trade, given his performance.
Santa Claus is coming to town in just over 10 days, so Senators fans had better watch out and better not cry – not if they want something besides lumps of coal in their stockings. They should also be sure to leave some milk and cookies out for Old St. Nick – although I’m told he often prefers a little schnapps to help ward off the cold.
If Ottawa fans listen closely to the night sky on Christmas Eve, they may hear Santa say, “To all Senators fans, a Merry Christmas and to all of them a good playoff season!”
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