Penguins’ Koivunen Contract Has a Hidden 2028 Escape Hatch

The salary cap charges would initially be even lower because the NHL calculation accounts for the difference between Koivunen’s original salary and the amount Pittsburgh saves through the buyout.

The projected cap penalties would be approximately $479,000 in 2028-29, $379,000 in 2029-30 and $329,000 in 2030-31. They would fall to approximately $229,000 during each of the following two seasons before returning to $479,000 in 2033-34.

Pittsburgh would then carry the full $729,167 annual charge from 2034-35 through 2039-40. The penalty would last an unusually long time. It would never become financially restrictive.

Penguins Have Created a Two-Season Evaluation Window

Koivunen’s contract is not legally a two-year deal with a team option. It could operate similarly from Pittsburgh’s perspective.

The Penguins will carry $8 million in total cap charges during the first two seasons. They will use that time to determine whether Koivunen’s American Hockey League (AHL) production can translate into consistent NHL offense.

He recorded 13 goals and 41 points in only 34 games for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton last season but managed seven points in 39 NHL appearances. That gap represents the central uncertainty surrounding the contract.

Pittsburgh’s earlier decision to make Koivunen one of its highest development priorities means he should receive enough opportunity to provide a meaningful answer. The Penguins must give him consistent top-nine minutes, skilled linemates and power-play work rather than evaluating him in a limited fourth-line role.

If Koivunen becomes a productive NHL forward, Pittsburgh can retain him for six additional seasons at a $4 million cap hit. That price could become increasingly affordable as the salary cap rises.

The NHL has already projected a $113.5 million salary cap for 2027-28. Koivunen’s $4 million charge would represent approximately 3.5% of that ceiling.

If he develops into a 40-point winger who contributes on the power play, the remaining term could provide substantial value.

If he fails to establish himself, Pittsburgh could accept a modest buyout penalty and redirect the roster spot elsewhere.

The Escape Hatch Does Not Make the Contract Free

Calling the buyout a complete escape would overlook several consequences.

Pittsburgh would still owe Koivunen $8.75 million after releasing him. It would also carry dead money through 2039-40, long after every current player and executive could be gone.

A 12-year cap penalty is not ideal roster management, even when the annual amount is small. It would remain visible on Pittsburgh’s books and remove some flexibility every season.

The buyout would also confirm that the organization badly misjudged one of its most important young players. Koivunen was acquired as part of the trade that sent Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes, and his development has remained central to how Pittsburgh’s return is evaluated.

The Penguins would also have spent two seasons giving Koivunen opportunities that could have gone to Rutger McGroarty, Hendrix Lapierre or another young forward.

The contract therefore remains a meaningful bet. The safety net only prevents a failed bet from becoming a cap disaster.

That distinction matters when evaluating the decision. My initial analysis described the Koivunen extension as Pittsburgh’s boldest bet. The buyout structure does not change how unusual it is to guarantee eight years to a forward with 14 NHL points. It changes the potential downside.

Dubas Built an Asymmetric Contract Gamble

President of hockey operations and general manager Kyle Dubas has created an unusually favorable balance between potential reward and financial risk.

If Koivunen succeeds, the Penguins control his entire prime at a cap hit that should become smaller relative to the league ceiling. Pittsburgh would secure a useful young forward without having to negotiate another contract after a breakout season.

If Koivunen fails, Pittsburgh can make a decision before his 26th birthday and take advantage of the reduced buyout rate. The organization would exchange six remaining years at a $4 million cap hit for 12 years of penalties ranging from approximately $229,000 to $729,167.

That is not a true get out of jail free card. It is close to the NHL contract equivalent.

The Penguins still need to use the next two seasons properly. Koivunen must receive a legitimate opportunity, and the organization must evaluate him honestly rather than allowing the contract to protect him from accountability.

By the summer of 2028, Pittsburgh should know whether Koivunen can become a significant part of its future. If the answer is yes, the eight-year commitment could become one of the most valuable contracts on the roster. If the answer is no, the Penguins have already built themselves a surprisingly inexpensive way out.