Picking This Year’s Cinderella Run Has Never Been Easier

The Utah Mammoth enter play Saturday with a 37-30-6 record, squarely in position for their first playoff berth via the wild-card spot in the West. They’re 3-5-2 in their last 10 games. In the Eastern Conference, they’d be seven points out of a playoff berth.

If you lump in the Coyotes’ history with the rebirthed Utah franchise, this club hasn’t made the playoffs in a full season since 2012. If you want to go all the way back to their origins as the original Winnipeg Jets, this team has won just four playoff series since entering the NHL in 1979 – once each as the Jets in 1985 and 1987, twice as the Coyotes in their run to the ’12 Western Conference Final.

Yet the Utah Mammoth, in their first season with their new namesake, are a glaringly obvious pick to upset their way through the first two rounds of the playoff bracket and end up as one of the league’s final four teams. Why?

Everyone knows the Pacific Division is bad. Few realize how dire the situation truly is.

There are four regular-season stats that consistently predict postseason haves and have-nots, as Daily Faceoff’s Brock Seguin pointed out earlier this week. Of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, nine have been in the top 10 in 5-on-5 goals share, eight have been top 12 in 5-on-5 expected goals share, all have been top 12 in 5-on-5 save percentage, and nine have been top 12 in combined power play and penalty kill percentage.

Utah is all but guaranteed to end up in the Pacific bracket as the better wild card. A look at those numbers clearly shows that none of the three teams earning divisional berths stands much of a chance.

The Ducks, on track for their first division title in nine years and first postseason appearance in eight, might be the worst offenders of the bunch. They have a -15 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season for a GF% of 47.6%, 21st in the league. Their expected goals share is right at the 50% waterline, but still ranks 17th. Their goaltending, a boon earlier in the season, has fallen to a 26th-ranked .896 5-on-5 save percentage. Their combined special teams percentage of 96.7% is 24th.

Of course, the Ducks might just be a statistical anomaly. Very little about their profile suggests they should be the 40-win team they already are. They’re not particularly lucky, finishing 0.3% below league average with a 98.9 PDO, and own a -4 goal differential. Who’s to say that can’t continue in the playoffs?

They’ll be matching up against the Mammoth, though. For the second year in a row, Andre Tourigny’s Utah club is much, much better than its record indicates.

Take all the above stats in contrast. They’re eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 GF% (53.1). Sixth in xGF% (52.7%). 21st in save percentage (.902). 26th in combined special teams (96.4%).

Yes, their struggling power play is a significant reason why their record isn’t any better. In a playoff environment with tighter calls, there are fewer of them to be had, though, and it carries less weight than everything else.

Is Karel Vejmelka a Stanley Cup-caliber starting goaltender? Probably not. It’s clear, though, that Utah’s dominant 5-on-5 play should be more than enough to ensure a wild-card-over-division-champ upset over the Ducks. It should also be enough to get them past a similarly flawed Oilers or Golden Knights roster in the second round, as those clubs are likely ticketed for the #2/#3 matchup.

The only stats in which the Oilers grade out as a potential Cup contender are expected goals share (51.4%) – the least reliable indicator among the four stats outlined – and their combined 107.7% special teams rate. Penalty trouble could sink the Mammoth, sure. But even at the Oilers’ greatest 5-on-5 strength, Utah grades out as a better possession-control team. The Oilers’ horrid 5-on-5 goaltending – 31st in the league at a .887 SV% – could be enough on its own to offset any special teams gains.

If they face Vegas, they’d be coming up against the only team with a worse goaltending situation this year than Edmonton (.885). The Knights’ possession numbers do make them more of a threat, though, with their 5-on-5 GF% ranking 19th (48.5%) and their xGF% (53.1%) all the way up at fifth. That’s miles ahead of Edmonton, and they’ve got the league’s fourth-best special teams efficacy at 106.8%, so they pose a greater challenge. But like Edmonton, Vegas’ lack of a clear-cut #1 option in net – and not for a good reason – will likely be enough to sink them against an above-average finishing squad in Utah.

Of course, the narrative falls apart when pitting the Mammoth against a potential Central Division opponent in the Western Conference Final. Average the league-wide ranks of those four stats among the teams currently in playoff position, and the Avalanche, Stars, and Wild are three of the top four teams.

Still, it’s excessively rare to almost expect a wild-card team to be playing playoff hockey into late May. It would be a great story to see one of the league’s most exciting up-and-coming franchises in Utah, particularly one with such a meager history of success, make a deep run. It would also be one of the least surprising developments of the spring, despite what a traditional wild-card narrative may dictate.