Potential free agency targets for the Edmonton Oilers

Brock Boeser is a very weird player. He’s an absolutely elite finisher, but he is by no means a play-driver or a good defensive player. Boeser also has major problems with his foot-speed. So you may be wondering why the Oilers would consider him when he doesn’t fit the system at all. I mean look what what Coach Kris Knoblauch did with Jeff Skinner. I think Boeser differs slightly here though.

The one thing the Oilers have lacked is an elite finisher during the McDavid era. Sure, Skinner was supposed to be that guy, but Knobaluch was also very-much against that signing when you see the behind the scenes clip from the Oilers “The Drop” show. Boeser has been an absolute beast during his two times in the playoffs with the Vancouver Canucks having 11 goals and 23 points in 29 games. Over the past few seasons, he’s scored 4.8, 4.6, -0.1, and 2.1 goals above expected over the past few seasons in a Rick Tocchet system that negates all offence. I do think it’s risky to throw out cash and term to him, but the Oilers and GM Stan Bowman have said they want to add a top-six addition if possible and have been linked to him a lot.

I will say that Boeser also has some durability issues and is extremely hot and cold. It’s a risky signing, but the rumours are growing louder by day. If he does sign here, I’m just happy he’s not a Canuck anymore since he torches us every single time we play them.

Andrew Mangiapane

Now if you want to talk about a good stylistic fit for the Edmonton Oilers, let’s talk about former Calgary Flame Andrew Mangiapane. Although he had a poor season on the Washington Capitals, being banished to the fourth line, there’s a lot of attributes to like about “Bread.” First, he’s quick and agile and loves to hem guys on the forecheck. Mangiapane also can drive play 5v5 which is critical for the Oilers. He’s like a smaller Warren Foegele with more offence to his game. He’s defensively responsible enough 5v5 and you can count on him to score at least 15 goals a season and end up around 40 points.

He might not be the best solution for the top-six, but he’s a better option than a guy like Perry at this point and would be a good fit next to Podkolzin and Draisaitl.

Mangiapane though still isn’t the best finisher and his 35 goal season with the Flames is an outlier. Maybe he can score 20 to 25 goals with a whole season next to McDavid or Draisaitl, but I rather them trade for another winger at the deadline to push Mangiapane down to the third line for the playoffs. A third line consisting of both him and Frederic would be incredible for a deep playoff run. The Oilers have also been connected to Mangiapane so this is definitely worth to keep your eye on on July 1. (Although I 100% think he’s Toronto-bound but time will tell.)

Mason Appleton

Mason Appleton would be one of the better depth options if the Oilers decide to let a couple of their UFA wingers walk. Appleton will likely cost around $2.5M over a two-year deal.

While he doesn’t penalty kill or defend the best, bringing him just for some depth scoring wouldn’t be the worst idea. Appleton usually played in the Jets’ bottom-six and scored 10 and 14 goals over the past two seasons. He’d definitely get some increased ice time here to improve those numbers.

Appleton is also a right-handed centre, something Edmonton has been lacking over the past few years besides Derek Ryan. If they feel like Noah Philp isn’t ready yet, I can see them going through this route. Appleton won 46% of his draws this season and 52% last year.

Anthony Beauvillier

Beauvillier is interesting. He was a dawg for the New York Islanders when he was younger, averaging 15 goals and 35 points a season. He then gets dealt to Vancouver and gets lost in Rick Tocchet’s doghouse. Then he signs in Pittsburgh after a brief stop in Chicago/Nashville and does well in a middle-six role, and ends the year fine with the Washington Capitals.

This is a low-risk, high reward move the Oilers should make. Beauvillier probably won’t make more than $1.5M and could be a candidate to provide an extra 15 goals and 30 points for the Oilers. He has a high motor like Mangiapane and is a strong skater. Another perfect candidate for Knoblauch’s system.

Anthony Mantha

Mantha started the season with the Calgary Flames before suffering a season ending ACL injury. Mantha had seven points in 13 games before the injury. Does this scenario sound familiar? It’s exactly like Connor Brown from two seasons ago.

Mantha is guy I’d love the Oilers to take a flier on. Mantha would make both of the analytics community and the heavy-hockey guys happy. He’s a 6’5”, 234lb tank who drives play in all the right ways. He’s scored 0.4, 9.1, -1, and 0.6 goals above expected in the last few seasons and is a guy that gets under the opponents skins.

The only thing is he doesn’t use his size to his advantage that much, but in the grand scheme of things that’s not an issue at all. He uses his size to excute perfect hockey IQ plays to create offence for his team. If the Oilers give him the Brown treatment (with a better structure of the bonuses), this is a guy well worth the risk. (Mantha didn’t play enough this season to warrant an updated player card.)

Defence is not as high a priority

While the Oilers are not actively looking for defence, I’d consider signing one of these two guys if the price is cheap enough.

Nick Perbix

The Oilers right-side is still in need of help and after Dante Fabbro re-signed in Columbus, Perbix is next best option. Perbix is just a smart hockey player. He excels at generating offence for his team, a great breakout passer, retreives the puck well, defends the blueline, and can carry the puck out of the zone with ease.

He has no negative qualities to his game besides not playing a lot against tough competition. I think it’s smart for Edmonton to go this route to prevent another year of having a LHD playing on their offside, something that crippled them come the final. If they need to trade Nurse (please) or hell, Brett Kulak to make room, you do it. Great player.

Joel Hanley

Hanley would be another lowkey nice target for Edmonton and probably the most realistic option to go after. He’s a wall on the backend. He’s super reliable and is perfect to play on your bottom pair for 14 minutes a night.

He also excels at the penalty kill, an area of improvment the Oilers need to make. He’s exactly what you want in a third pair D—just blocks, eats up shots, and does not allow anything high-danger.

He’s also extremely good at creating chances and holding possession in the O-zone. Yes, he’s a left-handed D and the Oilers have a ton of those, but like my Perbix comment above, you need to find those cap efficient players and Hanley can be just that.

There is a huge need for a goalie

To my eye, there’s only two good options in free agency for the Oilers. They should 100% go through the trade route and grab a guy like Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, but if they want to save their assets for the deadline to upgrade the wings and defencemen, these two guys are the best options in between the pipes.

Jake Allen

Allen is pretty easily the best goalie available this free agent class, but is reportedly looking for a multi-year deal with the AAV in the $5M which is way too expensive. Allen hasn’t played more than 41 games since the 2018–19 season, where he lost the starting role to Jordan Binnington, who won the Cup for them.

Allen is also pretty injury-prone and with him being 35 this August, the likelihood of him getting injured each year increases. Allen would be a decent fit for how the Oilers play and would be a good tandem guy for Skinner but not at that price.

Allen had a .908 SV% and a +18.4 GSAx on the New Jersey Devils this season which are dang good numbers. Over the last few years he had a raw SV% of .900, .891, .905, and .907 on those terrible Canadiens teams. In his last year for the St. Louis Blues, he had a .927. GSAx-wise he had a -1.9, -2.2, 2.3, and a 4.2. So again, some solid numbers. I wouldn’t pay him above $4Mm but if the Oilers cannot get anyone else, he’s the best guy on the market.

Alex Lyon

If I were a betting man, I think Lyon is going to be the opening night starter with Skinner as the backup. Lyon had a decent year on the awful Detroit Red Wings squad. This season he had a .896, but a +2.4 GSAx. Compare that to Skinner’s .895 and -1.5 on a good Oilers team and it shows Lyon in a good light.

Lyon was also the starter last season where he had a .905 and a 2.1 GSAx. The year before that, he basically dragged Florida into the playoffs when they were in the wild card hunt. He went 9–4–2 with a .914 and a +7.5 GSAx. He’s also incredible at stopping high danger shots but is mostly prone to medium danger for some reason. He probably commands a two-year $2M on the market and I think that’s a fair price to pay.

Let’s see what happens

I got zero clue what to expect when free agency begins. I can see us being active and signing guys like Allen or Boeser, or I can see us quiet and waiting until July 5 after the inevitable Arvidsson trade and go cheap after guys like Mangiapane with Beauvillier/Appleton and Lyon, etc.

As of writing this, the team has yet to announce any extensions, but I still do believe one of Perry or Brown is back (I think Perry is FWIW). Time will tell but the Oilers must make the most of the offseason especially with the McDavid extension looming.

Let’s just hope this Free Agency class doesn’t turn into one like 2016 or 2022 with a bad contract, or one like last year where it looked so good but turned into a dud.