Pre-Scout: Flyers’ gambles parlaying into a playoff spot

Hook up a Philadelphia Flyers fan to a lie detector machine and ask them whether they truly believed this team could go to the playoffs. Whether Maury Povich wants the gig or not, the Flyers fall back to the earth hasn’t happened yet – if it will at all.

As the calendar flips to 2026, the Flyers sit third in the Metro Division, boasting a 20-12-7 record, and four points back of Carolina for first. They are positively stingy.

That is, until a December 31st lapse against the Calgary Flames, as Samuel Ersson’s struggles between the pipes continued in a decisive 5-1 loss. This is the fourth and final game of the Flyers’ road trip, as they aim for .500 on this western swing. Saturday’s game against the Edmonton Oilers begins another truncated month of hockey, the first of 15 games in January for Philly.

“Every team has kind of a compacted schedule with the Olympic break (in February),” said coach Rick Tocchet on Friday. “We’re playing almost every other day. So it’s important to get contributions from everyone on the roster. There’s not a lot of practice time when we get back. We have to be smart about how we prepare.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch talked in his Friday media availability that a sign of a good hockey team isn’t just going on winning streaks – which have eluded the Oilers of course – but good teams also avoid losing streaks.

That’s what the Flyers have done time and time again. Philadelphia is 13-1-4 after a loss (regulation or overtime/shootout) and has lost three in a row just once this season.

Impressive numbers from a team that finished 29th overall in the NHL a season ago. It’s too easy to give coach Rick Tocchet all the credit, but he’s instilled a structured approach to the Flyers game that’s hard to ignore.

Bro, I hit my parlay…

Philadelphia wagered on under-utilized free agents, or young players needing a change of scenery, having bounce-back seasons. It’s worked.

Trevor Zegras is on track for a career season with 39 points in 39 games. Same with Christian Dvorak, who is third in team scoring with 25 points, and couldn’t carve out a spot with the Montreal Canadiens.

Travis Konency’s name was hardly mentioned in the Team Canada discussion, despite being on the 4-Nations Face-Off team, yet he’s having another fine season. With 36 points on the year, he’s projected to be close to his career high of 76 in 2024-25, all while playing roughly a minute-and-a-half less, and sitting +11. He has three goals in his last four games.

That’s a legitimate NHL top line that’s finding success.

On the backend, Jamie Drysdale is looking more like the player scouts loved enough to draft sixth overall in 2020. Health is on his side, and he’s producing offensively, while playing over 21 minutes a night.

Vlad-ar the Tender

Another chance general manager Daniel Briere took in the off-season was signing Dan Vladar to a two-year, $3.35-million annual pact.

He’s already tied his career high for wins in a season with 14 victories in 23 starts. While Ersson seems to be unplayable at times, it’s the opposite for Vladar, who is providing quality goaltending at a .910 save percentage. He was in the starter’s net at Friday’s practice.

While some of their fancy stats suggest Philadelphia is over-performing, a strict plus-5 goal differential at 5-on-5 this season is evidence they’re hard to beat most nights.

Last time…

The Oilers narrowly escaped Xfinity Mobile Arena on November 12 with a 2-1 overtime victory, thanks in part to a crucial coaches’ challenge that proved Owen Tippett was juuuust offside on a potential go-ahead with seconds remaining in regulation.

Edmonton possessed the puck a ton that night, especially in the second period, where the Flyer faithful rained boos down to the ice, but couldn’t convert puck possession into quality scoring challenges. In fact, Natural Stat Trick tracked a 7-6 advantage for the Flyers in High Danger Scoring Chances.

Overall, with the Oilers looking sluggish since the Christmas break, and the Flyers smarting after a bad loss on Wednesday, both teams enter Saturday’s matinée looking to get back to their game.

Notes:

• Travis Sanheim might have the least acclaim of any Team Canada selection, but he’s as rock solid as they come. He draws the tougher assignments, starting in neutral or the defensive zone the majority of the time, and being on the ice for more chances for than against.
• Other Flyers choices going to the Olympics: Rasmus Ristolainen for Finland and Rodrigo Abols for Latvia.
• Philly’s power play is a sore spot. They sit tied for 28th in the NHL with…the Colorado Avalanche. How can that be? Conversely, their penalty kill is no slouch at 81.8 per cent. A good strength-on-strength matchup today.
• Trading with their sworn rivals in the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Flyers acquired Philip Tomasino for Egor Zamula this week, who they were looking to ship out.
• Tomasino was a first-round pick in 2019. He’s shown flashes, but was an odd man out with the Pens, mostly playing with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Tomasino is reporting to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
• In December, Zegras became the first player with a nine-game point streak in his first season with the Flyers since John LeClair. He’s been held pointless just three times in the last 17 games.
• Forever the lightning rod of discussion, Matvei Michkov is currently on the third line. He’s scored nine goals and 22 points in 39 games.
• I’ll be curious to watch what they do with Samuel Ersson. December was a rocky month, with four of his last five games being stinkers. On the year, his .868 save percentage is third third-worst among NHL goaltenders who’ve played 10 or more games. Only Sam Montembeault and Frederik Andersen fall below him.
• Oilers record in afternoon games: 1-3.
• Oilers record vs Eastern Conference: 11-8-3
• Flyers record vs Western Conference: 9-6-2.
• The Oilers have played well this decade against the Flyers, going 6-3-1 in their last 10 matchups. At home, the Oilers are 4-1 since 2019.