Pre-Scout: Oilers control their fate in Mammoth matchup

This spot seems eerily similar for the Edmonton Oilers.

Exactly two weeks ago, the Oilers visited the Utah Mammoth fresh off a home Saturday night loss where the team didn’t really have it. At that time, the Oilers were third in the Pacific Division. Vibes were low.

Fast forward a fortnight, and the Oilers have gone 5-1 in that stretch, and are first in the division via a tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights fired a coach and have three in a row, and the Anaheim Ducks have lost three straight and loosened their grip on the Pacific.

Much has changed in 14 days. Starting Tuesday night, the Oilers control their own seeding fate.

“That’s exciting,” said veteran blueliner Mattias Ekholm, who’s been in these situations umpteen times.

“We put ourselves in that position, so now it’s up to us to take care of it. Yeah, we’ve got some big games coming up. These teams are all fighting for their lives, especially these next three, so it’s gonna be a big challenge. But I do like our game. I do think our game has been pretty solid in the last six or seven. Obviously, we didn’t love our Saturday game, but you’ve got to move on.”

But the spot still smacks of familiarity, especially because the Mammoth will surely draw into the Pacific Division playoff bracket and play the division winner in the first round.

Top of mind for the Oilers? A return to those pesky, important details.

“As the league goes on throughout the season, it tightens up. It’s harder to score goals, the details, the physicality, all that. It’s mandatory,” said Curtis Lazar.

‘Work in progress’

Kris Knoblauch said the story of Saturday’s 5-1 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights was defending the rush. Four VGK goals came after quick entries into the zone, something the Oilers had done much better against in their five game winning streak.

Those details had begun to slip against the Blackhawks the game before, but Edmonton was not punished for it.

The Oilers homestand saw the team dominate stretches of the game offensively, but not be rewarded on the scoreboard those moments they poured chances onto the enemy. With a comprised lineup that is now missing Zach Hyman on top of Leon Draisaitl, converting when the pendulum is swung in their favour is crucial to banking points.

The power play struggles are well documented. The Draisaitl-less man advantage is 2/24 and hasn’t scored a goal on a shot toward goal in eight games.

“We’re missing them a lot on the power play,” McDavid admitted on Monday, saying it hasn’t been nearly as effective. “I still think we’re getting looks. We’re just not putting them in. The power play obviously has to help offensively. That’s it. Be a part of it. Obviously, we’re working hard at it. It’s been a work in progress.”

It’s times like these you think of Mark Letestu. The utility knife fourth liner used a wicked one-timer in 2016-17 to score 11 powerplay goals.

The Oilers PP is most dangerous when Bouchard is throwing bombs from the blueline. A second option hasn’t been established and the Oilers improved five-on-five play can only provide so much.

‘It’s not over’

The young nucleus of the Utah Mammoth haven’t been through these pressures yet. You can’t blink down the stretch.

So far, they’re handling their business. Utah won all three road games on their recent western trip, scoring 19 goals in routs of Vancouver, Seattle, and Los Angeles. The Mammoth can put the puck in the net.

“Everybody’s winning, so we need to win,” said Utah coach Andre Tourigny after the 7-4 victory over the Canucks on Saturday night.

“At the end of the day, we want to play game 83. In order to do that, you need to win games. You’re not going in because anybody let you in. You need to keep winning games and it’s not over.”

While the Oilers power play is struggling, the Mammoth are red-hot. The man advantage has scored in five straight games, and is operating at a nine-for-17 run in that span.

Clayton Keller snapped a six-game goalless drought with a hat-trick on Saturday. On a four-game point streak, Keller has produced 10 points.

But it’s depth contributions that make lopsided boxscores. Mackenzie Weegar missed Saturday’s game and is listed as day-to-day. Barrett Hayton and Jack McBain will likely be out for a while still.

Liam O’Brien suited up for the first time after 18 straight healthy scratches. His breakaway goal dashed any thoughts of comeback for Vancouver.

“We have a deep lineup and anyone that steps in is a great player, and someone that knows our systems well and can contribute,” Keller said. “We reacted good to a little adversity. Great effort by everyone and heck of a goal by ‘OB’ there, too. That was unreal. He’s such a great teammate, great guy, and he grinds every single day so that’s awesome to see too.”

Notes:

• Knoblauch wouldn’t say for sure whether Colton Dach will play Tuesday, but he skated on a third-line with Jason Dickinson and Trent Frederic at practice on Monday. Josh Samanski and Owen Michaels were the 13th and 14th forwards.
• Samanski suffered from a tough night on Saturday, and was a career-worst minus-three in his 20th career game.
• After tinkering with Nugent-Hopkins back on McDavid’s wing for a period-and-a-half, Knoblauch put Roslovic in his place. Nuge looks like he’ll stay separated, with the line of Podkolzin-McDavid-Savoie skated together again at practice.
• If Connor Ingram starts, it would be the first time he’d play his former team since the October trade to Edmonton. He’d also be the third different goalie to start vs the Mammoth this season.
• Tristan Jarry made 16 saves in the Oilers 5-2 win on March 24. With the Oilers on a back-to-back, it seems like a pick your poison spot for Knoblauch.
• The Oiler are 8-4-2 on the road in the calendar year of 2026.
• The Mammoth play five of their last six games at home. At the Delta Center, they are 19-14-3.
• Mikhail Sergachev has nine assists on a four-game point streak. This is his second best offensive season of his career, with 10 goals and 55 points, nine back of his career high set in 2022-23.
• Karel Vejmelka has struggled mightily against the Oilers in his career. He’s 1-6-1 with a 4.96 goals against average and .851 save percentage. He was yanked for Vitek Vanacek two weeks ago after allowing four goals on 15 shots.
• The Mammoth made a big splash in trading for JJ Peterka in the off-season after a 68-point season. Utah sent Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring to the Buffalo Sabres. Doan has the same number of goals, 23, and four more points than Peterka. Buffalo’s gotten the best of those returns.
• With the blueline comprised without Weegar, the Mammoth have recalled former sixth overall draft pick Dmitri Simashev. He’s played 25 games in his rookie season, providing one assist in an average of 15:21 of ice-time.
• Kevin Rooney has also been called up. In one game, he’s scored a goal.
• The Oilers are a perfect 5-0 against the Mammoth all-time, with a plus-16 goal differential.