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Predicting Anaheim Duck Mason McTavish’s Stat Line for 2025-26 Season

Originally posted on Last Word On Sports
By Ken Culbertson | Last updated Sep 3, 2025 8:06 AM ET

Mason McTavish enters 2025-26 with a strong statistical base but one major question mark. That outstanding question is that he still does not have a contract. Anaheim’s former third-overall pick produced 22 goals and 52 points in 76 games last year, cementing his place as a reliable two-way centre. However, the Ducks and McTavish have yet to agree on a new deal, leaving both fans and fantasy managers waiting for clarity.

That wrinkle aside, his performance trajectory is clear. McTavish has developed into a sturdy middle-six anchor with enough skill to produce consistent offence. With Joel Quenneville now guiding the bench and Jay Woodcroft handling the power play, there are reasons to expect growth in his totals.

Mason McTavish Point Projection for the 2025-26 Season

Building the Projection

To project McTavish’s season, we combined multiple factors including usage, linear regression analysis, advanced metrics, and team context. The backbone is his ice time. Last season, he averaged 16:53 minutes per game, including 2:32 on the power play. Those minutes are expected to rise slightly, pushing him closer to 17:30 per game with steady secondary power play unit deployment.

From there, we examined his shooting. McTavish fired 181 shots, converting at 12.2 percent. That rate is right in line with his career average, suggesting sustainability rather than possible directional regression. With a modest bump in volume, he projects to take around 190 shots in 2025-26. Applying his historical efficiency, we arrive at roughly 23–24 goals.

OH, MASON MCTAVISH!!

That was absolutely gross. pic.twitter.com/4KHDfm2eEi

— NHL (@NHL) April 2, 2025

Assists and Linemates

Where McTavish can grow is in playmaking. He recorded 30 assists last season, supported by strong expected-goal creation. Models from Dom Luszczyszyn and Evolving Hockey both rated his offensive impact in the 70th–80th percentile, with his individual expected goals slightly higher than actual production. Playing alongside skilled wingers like Troy Terry or Cutter Gauthier should help him turn more chances into primary assists.

Because of this linemate context, his assists projection rises to around 32. In total, that places him in the mid-50s for points. This being a mark consistent with both his underlying numbers and age-based growth curves.

Power Play Factor

The Ducks’ power play was one of the league’s worst in 2024-25, finishing at just 11.8 percent. Even with those struggles, McTavish chipped in 12 power-play points. With Woodcroft expected to improve puck movement and entry success, Anaheim’s unit should climb into the mid-teens percentage-wise, at least.

Given similar usage but better efficiency, McTavish is projected for about 14 power play points this season. He may not lead the team in man-advantage production, but he will provide steady secondary scoring.

Other Metrics

For fantasy managers, McTavish adds value outside of points. He won 487 faceoffs last year at 50.7 percent. That is a solid figure that should climb toward 520 wins with more draws. His 69 hits and 31 blocks give him modest peripherals, while his 38 penalty minutes show he can contribute in formats that reward PIMs.

The main risk area remains that McTavish maintain a two-way game. He showed improvement last year from the previous season. Furthermore, Anaheim’s defensive structure under Quenneville should help him remain close to neutral, even if he continues to take tough minutes against top competition.

Projection Results

We ran a Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 seasons, varying games played, shooting percentage, power-play efficiency, and faceoff rates. The result provides both a median projection and a 95 percent confidence interval.

Mason McTavish Point Projection (80 GP, 2025-26):

Stat	2024-25 Actual	2025-26 Projection (Median)	95% Confidence Interval
Goals	22	23	18 – 28
Assists	30	32	25 – 37
Points	52	55	42 – 65
Plus/Minus	0	+2	-5 – +10
Power-Play Points	12	14	9 – 17
Short-Handed Points	0	0	0 – 1
Shots on Goal	181	190	160 – 215
Faceoffs Won	487	520	470 – 560
Hits	69	72	55 – 85
Blocks	31	35	25 – 45
Penalty Minutes	38	40	25 – 50
Average TOI	16:53	17:30	17:00 – 18:00

These projections blend McTavish’s 2024-25 usage, shooting rates, and team context with age-curve adjustments, then apply a 10,000-season Monte Carlo simulation to show both the most likely outcomes and the realistic high and low-end ranges.

Final Thoughts

McTavish projects as a safe mid-50s point scorer with reliable category coverage in shots, faceoffs, and PIMs. His offensive metrics suggest he could hit the 60-point mark if the Ducks’ power play improves significantly.

The only caveat is his contract situation. Until Anaheim signs him, fantasy managers must account for the slim chance of a holdout. Assuming a deal is reached, however, McTavish remains one of the most stable and valuable pieces of the Ducks’ forward group — and a dependable fantasy asset entering his age-22 season.