Predicting Anaheim Duck Troy Terry’s Stat Line for 2025-26 Season

While the Anaheim Ducks continue their long rebuild, one constant offensively has been Troy Terry. While prospects like Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier draw headlines, Terry remains the Ducks’ most reliable offensive forward. He posted 21 goals and 55 points in 77 games last season, pacing Anaheim in playmaking and finishing top three in team scoring. With new additions like Chris Kreider and Gauthier in the lineup, the question becomes, what should fans expect from Terry in 2025–26? That’s where our Troy Terry point projection comes in.

The Steady Producer

Over the past three seasons, Terry has averaged 57 points per year, despite Anaheim ranking near the bottom of the league in scoring. His production comes from a mix of strong even-strength play and creative puck distribution on the top power play. He logged nearly 19 minutes per night in 2024–25, including just under three minutes on the man advantage, and tallied 11 power play points.

What sets Terry apart is his consistency. Even when the Ducks’ offence sputtered, his underlying play-driving numbers stayed positive. He posted a +4.0 relative CF% last season, meaning Anaheim generated more chances with him on the ice compared to without. For a team still finding its identity, that’s quietly underrated in its value.

A Quick Primer on the Analytics Applied

Perhaps not everyone is familiar with hockey’s new metrics. Therefore, here’s a simple breakdown of the concepts behind this projection.

Expected Goals (xG): Measures shot quality. Terry’s expected goals (28) were higher than his actual 21 goals, suggesting he could have scored more with average puck luck.

Percentiles: Ranked in respective categories, relative to other qualifying forwards. Offensively, Terry ranked in the 74th percentile, but just average defensively.

Monte Carlo Simulation: By simulating 10,000 seasons varying ice time, PP touches, and shot volume, we create a range of outcomes, rather than one rigid prediction. These estimates are based simply on the empirical distribution of the available data. Monte Carlo simulations rely on historical data, probability distributions, and the correlation of the variables. Due to these assumptions, the generated outcomes of the simulation may not perfectly reflect reality, but it should help with the confidence in the prediction. As a note, we do assume statistical independence between the variables. Meaning that, even though they could be correlated, in our variance calculation for our Monte Carlo simulations, we assume they are not.

Linemates and Role in 2025–26

Anaheim’s forward depth chart is evolving quickly. Terry is projected to remain on the first line, most likely alongside Leo Carlsson at centre and either Chris Kreider or Cutter Gauthier on the left. That means he’ll continue to be the primary playmaker for Anaheim’s most talented scoring unit.

On the power play, Terry is locked into PP1 minutes, where he operates as a distributor on the half-wall. The Ducks’ man advantage finished dead last in the NHL last season. Even modest improvement, say, moving from 32nd to 20th, could add five to seven points to Terry’s totals.

Contract Context

Terry is entering Year 3 of a seven-year, $7.0 million deal that carries him through 2030. Models like Dom Luszczyszyn’s peg his current market value at $6.1 million, meaning he’s slightly underwater but still providing acceptable value for a top-line winger. The key point is that Anaheim isn’t paying him to be an 80-point star. What they are doing is paying him to be a steady top-six winger, mentor the young core, and keep producing 55–65 points per year.

Troy Terry Point Projection (2025–26, 80 GP)

Ceiling vs. Floor

The most likely outcome is another 58–62 point season, with Terry producing slightly more assists than goals. The floor is around 50 points if the Ducks’ power play remains stagnant, while the ceiling is 65+ if Carlsson and Gauthier take big steps forward. Terry’s elite penalty differential (+20 last season) also provides hidden value, as his ability to draw calls gives Anaheim extra chances with the man advantage.

The Bigger Picture

For Anaheim, Terry’s role is as much about stability as star power. He may never repeat the near point-per-game pace he teased in 2021–22, but he’s the reliable complement to a young, evolving core. His steady playmaking and low-penalty style make him invaluable to head coach Joel Quenneville’s plans, even if his surplus value is slightly negative by the models.