Predicting Noah Dobson’s First Year With The Habs

After putting up a career-high 60 assists and 70 points in 79 games during the 2023-24 season, Dobson fell to only 29 assists and 39 points in 70 games last year with the Islanders. There is a risk that the Canadiens are taking on to pay him as much as they are. Fortunately for the Canadiens, Dobson’s goal scoring numbers didn’t dip throughout the last 2 seasons; therefore, they should continue to expect 10-15 goals this year as he enters his prime. One of Dobson’s best offensive assets is his big one-timer from the point, which will likely be a massive part of the Habs’ 2nd power-play unit. He is also a great playmaker who is capable of playing on the top power-play unit, but with how shifty and creative the reigning Calder Trophy winner, Lane Hutson, is, Dobson must be tasked with quarterbacking the 2nd power-play.

Due to likely getting less power-play time, Dobson likely won’t top 70 points again, as long as he and Hutson are both in the lineup. Then again, the Canadiens’ 2nd unit will still have elite talent like Patrik Laine and Ivan Demidov to play with, so anything can happen. Compared to last year with the Islanders, this is still an upgrade from just having Bo Horvat and an injured Matthew Barzal. His down year wasn’t necessarily his fault as proven by analytical charts.

Dobson should still manage to record around 50-55 points if he stays healthy for a full 82-game season. This will put him in the same range that he was in during the two previous seasons before his breakout 70-point season.

Although Dobson is a smooth-skating offensive defenseman, he can still be a good defender, as proven by his performances during the preseason. In fact, his play on the penalty kill was likely the best part of his last preseason game as he was dealing with a groin injury and still didn’t look 100% when he skated during Saturday’s game against the Ottawa Senators.

Although he reassured fans during an interview with Tony Marinaro earlier this week that his groin is feeling good. With that being said, we will have to see how he plays tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Dobson’s skating is a key part of both his offensive and defensive game on any given night, which means if his groin is affecting him, his game as a whole will suffer tremendously. Nonetheless, his groin should be better soon, and we’ll get to see what Dobson at his peak will look like.

On top of the expected 50-55 points on a 2nd power-play unit, we should expect Dobson to play 22-24 minutes a night on a top pairing. He may not play as a shutdown defenseman, but he will still get some penalty kill time, even though the majority of the PK minutes should be given to Kaiden Guhle and Mike Matheson. Dobson may not look like the dominant defenseman he was with the Islanders during the 2023-24 campaign, but we should expect him to be a top right-handed defenseman who plays big minutes at both ends of the ice.

How many points do you expect from Noah Dobson this upcoming season?