Predicting which Maple Leafs forwards remain on the 2024-25 roster

This article is brought to you by bet365!

Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving found his guy. The team formally announced Craig Berube as head coach on Tuesday and now Treliving can dig into his roster to evaluate who he’d like to keep, who he’ll be shopping on the trade market, and which pending free agents he wants to secure.

Toronto will look different next season. It won’t just be the structural changes Berube makes on the ice and the new level of intensity around the team, the roster itself will be getting a makeover this summer.

There’s already been a ton of speculation about some major trade scenarios taking shape. With the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning pulling off a rare trade during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the rumour mills are in mid-season form.

We’re going to predict the chances of each Maple Leafs forward remaining on the 2024-25 roster.

Auston Matthews:
Chances of Staying: 100 percent
What a year for Matthews. Matthews led the league in goals and finished 3rd in Selke voting as the NHL’s best defensive forward. Truly a remarkable season. ‘Papi’ isn’t going anywhere, anytime soon. Give him the ‘C’ already!

William Nylander:
Chances of Staying: 100 percent
Treliving inked Nylander to an extension easily, which was something Kyle Dubas seemed to struggle with. Nylander is signed through the 2031-32 season and let’s hope by that time he’s getting inserted into Legends Row. Nylander isn’t scared by the playoffs at all, but his off nights in front of Berube might be a scary sight.

Matthew Knies
Chances of Staying: 100 percent
Berube is going to absolutely love Knies’ playing style and expect to hear him singing his praise on a nightly basis. Knies just finished his rookie season and he improved every day. With his size, speed, physicality, defensive awareness and hockey IQ, the sky is the limit for the 2021 second-round pick. A full-time top-six role and consistent power-play time next season is a must.

John Tavares
Chances of Staying: 80 percent 
Tavares has one season left on his contract and it’s very unlikely he signs a new contract extension before next season. It feels extremely unlikely that management will ask him to move his no-movement clause, out of respect. Instead, they could let Tavares play through a contract in a show-me campaign. If Tavares re-signs, it appears likely he’ll need to take a pay cut.

Morgan Rielly
Chances of Staying: 75 percent
Rielly is the second most-likely to move out of the ‘Core 5’. He skates like the wind, he does a lot of the little things right, but for some reason, he leaves many wanting more. He’s not a threat on the power play and shouldn’t be on PP1. He’s not good enough defensively to be a true No. 1 defenseman. He’s shown throughout his tenure with the Maple Leafs that can be the best player on the ice on some nights. The 30-year-old doesn’t have any more major signing bonuses in his contract, so even though he holds all the cards with a no-movement clause, opposing teams won’t be scared away by the money involved. 

Mitch Marner
Chances of Staying: 30 percent 
Marner certainly became the scapegoat to end the season and looked disengaged during the playoffs.

Several NHL insiders believe there’s no doubt Marner will be discussed on the trade market. It’s all going to come down to where he wants to play. The flip side of it all is the fact having Marner motivated in a contract year, with a new coach, new goalie and a new-look defense core could go a long way. So far, Marner’s camp has not been asked about waiving his no-movement clause or to supply a list of teams he’d be interested in playing for long-term. No team is going to trade serious assets for Marner if there isn’t a contract extension in place. Some may believe 30 percent is too high, but we’re rolling with it.

Max Domi
Chances of Staying: 75 percent
Domi showed off his facilitation abilities throughout the entire year and there were stretches of the first-round series where he was the Leafs’ best player. He loved his first season in his hometown and it appears likely he re-signs a long-term contract extension before July 1. It appears both parties have a mutual interest in returning.

Tyler Bertuzzi
Chances of Staying: 60 percent
If Bertuzzi isn’t re-signed before free agency opens, the Maple Leafs will be in tough because there’s going to be a team or two who are willing to overpay. After a very slow start, Bertuzzi was able to settle down and find the back of the net on a regular basis. Bertuzzi said he’d like to return: now let’s see how Treliving uses his $18.5 million in cap space to make it happen.

David Kampf
Chances of Staying: 65 percent
Kampf’s contract extension last summer may be one move Treliving would like back from his early days as GM. Playing with a $2.4 million AAV for the next three seasons, the deal is a bit rich. Kampf is supposed to be a shut-down centre who is an above-average penalty killer. Unfortunately for the Maple Leafs, he wasn’t consistent enough at either. Kampf could be on the trade block, especially with Pontus Holmberg and Fraser Minten’s emergences looming.

Calle Jarnkrok
Chances of Staying: 85 percent
Jarnkrok’s motor should mesh well with Berube, who mentioned during Tuesday’s press conference that he doesn’t want to get outworked by anybody. He can do a little bit of everything and is versatile enough to play all over the lineup. Playing at a $2.1 million AAV against the cap, he should be safe from any offseason deals. Treliving loved him enough to trade multiple draft picks while he was running the Calgary Flames, and his opinion hasn’t changed.

Ryan Reaves
Chances of Staying: 70 percent
Berube will certainly love the intimidation factor but he also wants players he can trust defensively. Reaves had an up-and-down season but when he was ‘on’, the bruising winger was very effective. While it was head-scratching to see Treliving give an enforcer in his late 30’s a three-year contract, at this point the job of ‘security guard’ appears to still be Reaves’ for the taking.

Bobby McMann
Chances of Staying: 95 percent
McMann made the most of his oppourtunity last season and ended up being rewarded with a two-year contract extension. His game is perfectly suited for playing left wing on the third line as he’s physical, he’s sound defensively and can chip in on the score sheet. McMann scored in bunches last season and if he can consistently find the back of the net, 20 goals isn’t out of the question. Not bad for a player making $1.3 million against the cap.

Pontus Holmberg
Chances of Staying: 95 percent
The 25-year-old Holmberg has one season left on his contract at just $800,000. It’s likely the GM loved what he saw from the shutdown centre, who at times, showed flashes of brilliance offensively. Holmberg’s a cost-effective player who showed lots of versatility last season. He’s not going anywhere, anytime soon.

Connor Dewar
Chances of Staying: 90 percent
After being acquired ahead of the trade deadline, it took Dewar a little while to find his feet in Toronto but once the playoffs came around, he was very effective on the fourth line. His aggressive style and defensive awareness should impress Berube and considering he’s a pending restricted free-agent, turning 25 years old and won’t be too expensive against the cap, the Maple Leafs would be wise to sign him to a multi-year extension.

Noah Gregor
Chances of Staying: 25 percent
Gregor started strong but unfortunately couldn’t consistently produce in his role throughout the entire season. He was in and out of the lineup come playoff time and with some top prospects expected to push for spots next season, there’s a good chance Treliving decides not to make a qualifying offer to the pending restricted free agent.

Nick Robertson
Chances of Staying: 50 percent
Scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL and it is Robertson’s best attribute. His work ethic fits into a Berube-coached team but the Maple Leafs are going to try and revamp their defense and find a goaltender, so moving Robertson makes a ton of sense. If there’s no trade available, Robertson ought to sign an extension as a pending RFA. It’s also worth noting if Tyler Bertuzzi walks in free agency, it could open up a top-six left-wing slot for Robertson.

Treliving has some major decisions to make this offseason as getting Berube behind the bench was only step one. More changes are coming, which could include a blockbuster trade before free agency begins. This has the makings of one of the more entertaining offseasons in Toronto, in a very long time.