Projecting Connor Zary’s Contract Extension With the Calgary Flames

Throughout the rest of his rookie season, Zary got into 63 games with the Flames, scoring 14 goals and adding 20 assists for 34 points. It was an impressive campaign that Zary looked like he was going to build on after having five straight points in five straight games to open the season for the Flames in 2024-25. However, his hot start did not materialize with him missing the majority of January and February with injuries, and after returning, he bounced around the lineup.

Zary finished last season with 14 goals and 13 assists for 27 points in 54 games. A 0.5 point-per-game pace, which was slightly less than the 0.54 he averaged in his rookie season with the Flames. While his production did not improve in his sophomore season, he did look more impactful on the ice with the quality of scoring chances he was creating. From his rookie season to his sophomore season, Zary was producing 0.28 more expected goals, 2.19 more scoring chances and 1.18 more high-danger chances per 60 minutes (via Natural Stat Trick).

Comparable Contracts to Zary

According to The Athletic‘s player value model based on net ratings off advanced analytics, the data suggests Zary played at a $3.7 million value last season. In a recent piece projecting the Flames’ 2025-26 roster, Sportsnet’s Eric Francis said, “Expect a two-year bridge deal so the talented youngster can up his value following an injury-riddled season.”

With these two things in mind, I have found three players of similar age and production who signed extensions this offseason to get an idea of what Zary’s contract will look like. Those comparables are…

Quinn and Foerster are the two players I want to focus on here. Both were taken in the same round of the same draft as Zary with Quinn going eighth overall to the Sabres and Foerster being selected one pick before Zary by the Philadelphia Flyers. The similarities between the three players don’t stop there. Throughout their young careers, all three of these players have produced between a 41 to 45 point-per-82-game pace.

Zary’s Contract Projection

Even though both Foerster and Quinn signed within $500,000 of one another, The Athletic’s player cards valued these players at quite different levels. Last season, Foerster played at a $5.9 million value and Quinn played at a $2.3 million value.

While this is a wide gap in valuation, it does still narrow down the window of what Zary can sign for. With Quinn’s deal at $3.375 million AAV, Zary’s camp now has precedent to say that Zary is worth more than Quinn given his $3.7 million valuation compared to Quinn at $2.3 million. At the same time, the Flames also have precedent to not pay Zary any more than Foerster’s $3.75 million with him performing at a $5.9 million valuation last season.

With Zary playing at a level in between Quinn and Foerster, and all three coming out of the same draft class, I think his contract is going to look quite similar to both. My prediction: Zary signs a two-year, $7 million deal that carries an AAV of $3.5 million.

The Athletic Player Cards Cited:

• (The Athletic, NHL Player Cards: Atlantic Division, April 18, 2025).
• (The Athletic, NHL Player Cards: Metropolitan Division, April 18, 2025).
• (The Athletic, NHL Player Cards: Pacific Division, April 18, 2025).