Projecting where the Calgary Flames are picking in the 2026 NHL Draft

A high draft pick is very likely

First things first, wow, there is a lot of talent listed in this table. Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Macklin Celebrini, John Tavares, Matthew Tkachuk, Logan Cooley, and more. There are so many star players in this table. Sure, some names ended up being misses as well, but many of these picks are quite high picks, which is exactly what the Flames would love to see if they do find themselves in the draft lottery.

Based on the above, more often than not, the team’s first-round draft pick ends up in a pretty optimal spot. For all teams that have secured at most five points in their first 10 games since 2005:

• 89% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 10
• 71% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 5
• 61% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 4
• 57% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 3
• 36% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 2
• 14% of the draft picks ended up being first overall

This is fantastic news for Calgary, as based on this historical data, they have a greater than 50% chance to draft one of Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff, or Ivan Stenberg. The first two names have been discussed as franchise talents, potentially generational. Stenberg, on the other hand, may not get the same hype as the other two, but he is flirting with being a point per game in the SHL as an 18-year-old. No question about it, he would be a potential star for the Flames.

Additionally, of all teams that have secured at most five points in their first 10 games, the average draft pick positioning is sixth overall. If Calgary ends up with the sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft, this would be the highest they have drafted since selecting Matthew Tkachuk in 2016.

Now, if you are curious about what the data looks like for teams that have only secured five points in their first 10 games of the season:

• 82% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 10
• 64% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 5
• 45% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 4
• 36% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 3
• 18% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 2
• 9% of the draft picks ended up being first overall

Additionally, the average draft pick for teams with five points in their first 10 games is 8th overall. However, it is important to note that this is somewhat skewed by the Edmonton Oilers and their start from 2023, where they started the year 2–7–1. However, this same year, they made an incredible run to make their way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Because they have a Stanley Cup-calibre roster and have had one for quite some time, I would consider this an outlier. If we don’t include Edmonton’s season, the average draft pick ends up being sixth overall once again. This is fantastic news for the franchise that is hoping to take full advantage of this very talented and deep draft class.

Flames might have a star on their hands

The numbers indicate that the Flames might find themselves with a top-five pick by year’s end, and there is a strong likelihood that this pick is in the top three as well. If this pick does end up being in the top 3, this would the the highest draft pick in Flames history, and it would give the team a big boost in building their team to get back to a contending status. This season may be a long and gruelling watch, but the numbers don’t lie; the future is starting to look very bright for this franchise.