Re-signing Tavares is better or easier than the contingencies for the Maple Leafs

For some people, John Tavares’ playoff performances in the past few seasons is reason enough to move on from him. Others will point to the decline in his 5v5 numbers and reliance on either linemates or the powerplay to keep his numbers afloat. Age is a factor for some. Others just don’t see Tavares as a player you can win with.

Respectfully, Tavares is a still the best option for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the coming seasons and moving on from him would be a mistake, up to a certain price. And unless Tavares is asking for that price (for me it would involve a $6M+ AAV) it’s probably best to bring him back and continue with someone who very much seems capable of delivering as a solid second line centre.

Things are more complicated than we know about. Term, bonus structure, and the extent of his no movement clause will matter. The gap between the Brock Nelson 3 year deal at $7.5M AAV and the Matt Duchene four year deal at $4.5M is where Tavares will likely reside and that’s probably fair. The case for Nelson is his two-way play, the case against Duchene is the lack of goal scoring, the argument for Tavares is that there are fewer options available after those two have signed, and there is a greater consistency to his production than with either of the others. A lot can happen in a week and all it takes is for one side to send a counteroffer that works to get the ball rolling, but it wouldn’t hurt to take a look at what life without Tavares could look like for the Leafs.

The problem

The problem is pretty simple, the Leafs are already thin at centre, they are already losing a lot of top end talent, and neither centres nor top end talent are easily replaced in free agency. The Leafs also lack future draft picks and a deep prospect pool that make the trade market a compelling option either. They also already needed to be looking at the centre position as an area that needed upgrading and this almost certainly ensures they’d be taking a step back now.

Of course, replacing John Tavares and his 38-goals and 74-points on his own is intimidating. If you look at the Leafs potentially replacing John Tavares and David Kampf, replacing two centres with an average of 21-goals and 43-points seems doable. At least there are three centres in free agency who have numbers that exceed that.

The solution

Free Agency

So, when it comes to free agent centres who produced offence last season, the best available players after Tavares are Sam Bennett, Mikael Granlund, and Pius Suter. Sam Bennett doesn’t seem like he’s going to happen, but Granlund and Suter are interesting options that come with a lot of risk and neither seemingly addressing the direction the Leafs want to go in.

Both Suter and Granlund bring a two-way game that the Leafs have struggled to receive from their second and third line centres and that is a plus, but neither brings the size that Brad Treliving and Craig Berube crave for the Leafs. As short term options, both have appeal, but both lack Tavares’ goal scoring and have recent experience with being poor fits with previous clubs. Other options like Jack Roslovic, Anthony Beauvillier, and Adam Gaudette seem like potential style fits with what the Leafs want, but seem like Toronto would be very much doubling down on the Scott Laughton type of player that served Toronto well in a fourth line capacity, not a middle six one.

Another name that is a curious and maybe has the potential for breakout on a new team is Christian Dvorak. At 29 it would be a little late for Dvorak to have a breakout season, but as an offensive player with little to work with in Arizona and Montreal, perhaps building a strong line around a less compelling but offensively driven centre is a short term stop gap for the Maple Leafs.

Trades

Marco Rossi, Mason McTavish, and Elias Pettersson are certainly three interesting centres who have their names come up frequently in trade rumours. The issue, of course, is trying to imagine the circumstance where the Leafs have the trade assets to be players on options that could allow the Leafs to legitimately upgrade their centre situation. Throw these players on your dream board and manifest away but here are some more practical options or situations to consider.

As the Golden Knights prepare to take a run at Mitch Marner, players like Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson are players worth dreaming a little about. They are legitimate second line centre options and could even be considered upgrades. Depending on how the St. Louis Blues are feeling after just squeaking into the playoffs, and what direction new GM Alex Steen is planning on going in, now might be the time that the Leafs can revisit their interest in Brayden Schenn. Brad Treliving has already done the legwork at the trade deadline and could find a deal (although at that time the Leafs had first round picks and a few more prospects to offer the Blues.)

Other teams like the Oilers, Stars, and Avalanche are certainly in salary dumping mode, and that is going to make players like Charlie Coyle and Adam Henrique (at the very least) available.

For some additional optimism in the trade market, having three new GMs in the league might open up some potential movement with the Islanders, Kraken, and (maybe) the Kings.

In short, the options are better via trade but the Leafs are short on trade chips. It’s either about finding a fit with a team that Morgan Rielly would accept a trade to, giving up on their goaltending depth, moving on from a recent first rounder like Ben Danford or Easton Cowan, or hoping that a GM is willing to wait until 2028 to use their newly-acquired first round pick. (That’s why the salary dump and deckchair shuffling options are the most feasible here too.)

The complications

Marner hitting free agency and not knowing what is happening with Matthew Knies’ next contract complicate matters. If the Leafs find themselves without Marner and Tavares, it might be reasonable to view this season as a calculated step back and one where committing to lesser long term options will close their competitive window even further.

On the other hand, not having Marner and Tavares on the books and being able to commit to the right players and the pipe dream of going big on someone like Elias Pettersson and still having money to throw at someone like Nik Ehlers would be the high bar of what is possible this off-season.

Tavares is returning is the safe bet and probably the right choice but if the Leafs have built a strong contingency for their former captain not returning and not just scrambling in free agency, Toronto could improve.