Red Wings Draft Profile: J.P. Hurlbert

Position: LW

HT/WT: 6’0″, 183lbs

Player Comparison: Jack Quinn

Detroit’s clearly grown some affection for drafting out of the WHL. Out of their last three first round picks, two have come out of the WHL. After years of trying to make players out of Sweden work at the pros, the scouting has shifted, and so far it’s looked good for Carter Bear. So how has it looked for Hurlbert to this point?

In his draft year, Hurlbert put up 42 goals, 55 assists, and 97 points in 68 games. The production alone should jump off the page for Red Wings fans familiar with Carter Bear’s similar 82 points in 56 games during his draft year. The production is similar, but the play style isn’t, and that will be what makes or breaks Hurlbert as a prospect.

Hurlbert is an offensive dynamo rather than a workhorse. His size, speed, and defensive game are all on the lower end of his skill set. He makes up for that with a great release, solid hands, and great vision and playmaking. It’s certainly an upside swing from Detroit, so after watching some film, let me do my best to give my take on the player.

Pros

The biggest strength for Hurlbert is undoubtedly the shot. While not a direct comparison, you can see the similarities to the way that Connor Bédard releases the puck. Hurlbert can change the angle of his shot well, and his wrist and snap shots both get off quickly with good power. Typically, smaller prospects who don’t have the muscle can struggle to get power behind their shots, and Hurlbert doesn’t. It’s a good foundation, but not his entire toolset.

Hurlbert pairs the threat to shoot with an above-average playmaking bag. He’s far from my favorite distributor in the class, but there’s no reason he won’t translate to a good NHL playmaker given his skill set. Hurlbert has great vision and a level of deception to him that can help him make those highlight-reel passes.

Finally, Hurlbert has really good hands both in tight and in space. He’s able to take on players one-on-one at a high clip despite being at a physical disadvantage. Hurlbert is automatic near the net, using the threat to shoot to open the goalie up for dekes. Even in space, he’s able to make small adjustments quickly to open up a shooting or passing lane.

Offensively, I think Hurlbert is a fairly complete player. Seeing as he just turned 18 in April, his past season being almost entirely as a seventeen-year-old is really impressive. I don’t think a 50-60 point guy is out of the question with Hurlbert; it’s just going to take some really solid development next season.

Cons

Unfortunately, the list is longer than I want it to be. I understand there’s no perfect prospect in the 20s, especially when Detroit needs an upside swing, but there’s some serious cause for concern here. This is the first pick in a long time where I don’t think the floor is a bottom-six guy. There is a non-zero chance Hurlbert doesn’t get much serious run in the NHL.

Let’s start with the biggest one for me, the skating. Hurlbert doesn’t take enough strides, nor is he quick enough to create any separation at the NHL level. A lot of his production in Kamloops involved him getting the first step on defencemen, and unfortunately, that’s not a given going forward with his speed.

Paired with that, there’s a lack of attention to detail on defense. I don’t want to use the term “floats,” but he certainly doesn’t apply himself much defensively. At best in the NHL, I could see him being a passable forward in his own end, which isn’t a bad thing, but he lacks the instinct to really stop plays in his own end. There are good signs in that department though, as Hurlbert did earn a role on the penalty kill in Kamloops.

Finally, there isn’t that Detroit engine they’ve been building around. The thing that surprised me most about the pick is that I wouldn’t call Hurlbert an elite competitor at all. He depends on his skill to break open games, but the toolkit doesn’t exist much beyond that. There’s a lack of impressive physicals across the board, be it in speed, size, or physicality, and the effort doesn’t exist to offset that.

What Could J.P. Hurlbert Be?

Absolute Ceiling: Clayton Keller

Realistic Comparable: Trevor Moore

Floor: Robby Fabbri

The player comparable I saw the most was Kyle Connor, and I want to shut that down pretty fast. Unfortunately, Hurlbert doesn’t have the same speed that Connor has mixed in with his skill set, or I’d be much higher on him. Though, I do think the absolute ceiling is a 30 goal, 80 point winger who runs a power play well. The odds on Hurlbert hitting that, unfortunately, aren’t super high.

I could see him being more of a Trevor Moore of seasons past. Effective 20-30 goal guy who can punch in around 50 points for you in a power play or depth role. Pure skill offensive guys like that aren’t nothing, so I certainly don’t say that in a bad way.

Though the concern is that the hometown kid will just end up being an ineffective scoring threat who needs too many touches to be worth it. As disappointing as that sounds, though, I think the skill is higher than the Berggrens and Lombardis of days past, where he is unlikely to translate at all.