Red Wings Weekly #3 – The Legend of Emmitt Finnie

Finsanity Begins

Sunday, Oct 19 vs. Edmonton Oilers, 4-2 Victory

What a win! Detroit stretches their win streak to five games against two of the best players in the world. Edmonton has struggled a bit out of the gates so they loaded up their first line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to try and get some offense going.

However, they were shut down and outscored by Detroit’s top line with rookie winger Emmitt Finnie having a notable performance, scoring his first two NHL goals. John Gibson looked great in this game following his nightmare start on opening night, and added an assist for fun. Vibes were at an all time high following this game despite Lucas Raymond clearly playing at less than 100% and Patrick Kane being out with an upper body injury.

Game Recap

Embarrassing Loss to a Rookie Goalie? Big Surprise

Tuesday, Oct 22 vs. Buffalo Sabres, 4-2 Loss

Despite relatively high expectations coming into the season, the Buffalo Sabres have been . . . well, the Buffalo Sabres. They’ve been rocky to start the year and were starting Colten Ellis in net for his first career NHL game. That felt like a recipe for Detroit to drop 5+ goals on a fresh goalie, dominating the game offensively and capitalizing on chances to overwhelm Ellis. Yeah, that didn’t happen. 

About the only positive for Detroit coming out of this (and it’s not an important thing) was Finnie scoring once again and Dylan Larkin’s season opening point streak hit seven games. 

Game Recap

Burn the Tapes, Move on

Wednesday, Oct 23 vs. New York Islanders, 7-2 Loss

Detroit had a couple of really early power plays but they just couldn’t get anything done without Patrick Kane and with Lucas Raymond clearly banged up. They had no momentum coming out of the power plays and the Islanders were clearly motivated by the early kills. The Red Wings put Marco Kasper on the top power play unit to try and help him jumpstart his offensive game this season. They also shuffled their forward lines around a ton with Kane still out for the foreseeable future and I like seeing Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (MBN) taking a turn on the second line. 

He earned his first career point, an assist on Jonatan Berggren’s first goal of the season, and I think Detroit would benefit from having MBN’s heavy shot on their first power play unit while their lineup is in flux like this. It wasn’t a pretty night to say the least.

The Outcome Was Never in Doubt

Saturday, Oct 25 vs. St. Louis Blues, 6-4 Victory

Ahhh, the highs and lows of Detroit Red Wings Hockey. Coming off two consecutive losses, no reasonable person thought Detroit had enough fight in them to make this game interesting when the Blues made it 4-0 early in the second period. When Berggren scored a power play goal the team got a bit of life back, but it was two quick goals in the final minutes of the period that really made it a game. 

Emmitt “Finsanity” Finnie was at it again, scoring his fourth goal of the young season, and Alex DeBrincat finally potted his first of the year to tie it at four a piece. The Red Wings showed some real resilience in this one, it would’ve been easy to roll up in a ball and give up when they were down 4-0, and credit to guys like JT Compher and Berggren for keeping the fight up. 

Game Recap

3 Takeaways From the Week

Emmitt Finnie is the Real Deal

Considering how Detroit essentially held open auditions for the remaining winger slot on their top line at training camp, it was easy to see Finnie’s role as a bit of stunt-casting to grab some attention before replacing him with a less exciting but more experienced veteran. However, through his first nine games Finnie has absolutely proven himself worthy of that spot as a worker and finisher for Detroit’s first line. His four goals are second on the team behind only Larkin, and he has already begun to earn some time on the penalty kill because of his tenacity.

Now, Finnie isn’t going to score on 23% of his shots for the whole season, though each of his goals feel fairly repeatable. He has scored each of his goals from in tight, thanks to his precocious power game and the fact that he’s lining up with Detroit’s best playmakers in Larkin and Raymond who can get the pucks to him through tight windows. If Finnie plays the whole season on Detroit’s top line, that will be a success in itself, but if he keeps this up, I can clearly see a world where he cracks 20 goals as a rookie.

Somebody has Cursed Alex DeBrincat

Does anybody know any Etsy witches? Going into Saturday night’s game against the Blues, DeBrincat had 28 shots and no goals for the worst shooting percentage in the league (though technically zero is just zero). Only two other forwards in the league have taken at least 20 shots without scoring a goal. Let me remind you that DeBrincat scored 39 goals last season and he has scored over 250 goals in his career. 

Now that he finally got the monkey off his back with his first of the year against St. Louis, how long will it take for his shooting percentage to regress back to average? He took another six shots (not including two early crossbars) in Saturday’s game, putting him at 34 shots and one goal for roughly three percent shooting. His career average is 14%, and that means he is owed roughly 3-4 goals more than he has scored during his snakebitten start. The question is, are the goals going to start flooding in, normalizing his shooting numbers, or is he going to continue to struggle if Kane stays out of the lineup much longer?

How Good is This Team?

Okay, so we’ve seen two very different versions of this team already, with their five-game winning streak contrasting clearly with how they’ve looked in their three losses. One team has defensive contributions from throughout their three pairs, an explosive power play that can turn the tide of a game, and goalies who keep the team competitive in tough games. The other team looks lethargic, turns over pucks constantly, and hangs their goalies out to dry with odd-man rushes and breakaways.

So what is this team going to be this year? It’s probably fair to say this won’t be a feast or famine season where they alternate between lengthy winning and losing streaks, but Detroit’s true talent level is bound to be somewhere in the middle here. They’re going to need more depth production from guys like Berggren, Copp, and Compher to crack the playoffs this year, and they will need their young defensemen to continue to polish their puck play under pressure. When everything is clicking, this roster is capable of making some real noise in the Atlantic division, but as soon as that balance shifted with a couple of injuries up front, the team has faltered. Detroit is going to need to develop some resilience if these players are going to lead them to success in the long-term.

3 Stars of the Week

1. Emmitt Finnie 4G, 2A

1. Dylan Larkin – 3G, 3A

1. Jonatan Berggren – 2G, 2A

Wild Stat of the Week

88.68%

Despite losing their game against the Islanders 7-2, there was a bright spot for Detroit. Their third line of Berggren, Compher, and MBN was dominant in roughly seven minutes of ice time at even strength. Their expected goals for percentage (xGF%) was 88.68%, meaning they produced roughly eight times as many expected goals as their competition (via. Natural Stat Trick). They also put 11 shots on net in just seven minutes, with only one shot against. While Detroit’s top-six is in chaos, it would be wonderful if their third line can build on this success.

Prospect to Watch

Nate Danielson – 2 primary assists in return to AHL

Nate Danielson has returned from an injury he sustained in the preseason, and Detroit elected to send him to Grand Rapids to work back up to speed before considering calling him up. In his first game back he earned two primary assists and had a third on a disallowed goal. Sebastian Cossa also pitched a 30-save shutout with Steve Yzerman in the building so both young players made a great impression with the GM in for a visit. If Danielson looks consistently impactful on both ends in the AHL like he did throughout camp and the preseason, I don’t think the Red Wings will wait long before calling him up for his NHL debut. 

Upcoming Games

Tuesday, Oct 28 vs. St. Louis Blues

Thursday, Oct 30 vs. Los Angeles Kings

Friday, Oct 31 vs. Anaheim Ducks

In Other News

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Devin Little:
Griffins Will Appreciate Gustafsson and Holl While They Have Them

Tony Wolak:
Red Wings News & Rumors: Trade Talk, Larkin, Raymond, Danielson & More