Red Wings Weekly #5 – Detroit’s Top-Six is Missing

Viva Loss Vegas

Tuesday, Nov. 4 vs. Vegas Golden Knights, 1-0 Loss

Despite the loss, I thought this was one of Detroit’s better games so far this season, battling hard with a team as strong as Vegas and really challenging them. The loaded top pair of Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson looked elite, putting up excellent underlying results in massive minutes. Seider played over 27 minutes and Edvinsson over 23, and Detroit held roughly 60% of the shot share during their minutes despite playing much of their time against Vegas’ top forwards (stats via. Natural Stat Trick). 

Quick Thinking

Friday, Nov. 7 vs. New York Rangers, 4-1 Loss

With Patrick Kane back in the lineup, Detroit’s power play looked like it had some real jump again, although they failed to capitalize on any of their four chances. Detroit’s top line was buzzing but couldn’t produce any goals despite throttling their 5v5 competition. Also, Jonathan Quick made one of the most impressive stick checks I’ve seen in my entire life

The line of Emmitt Finnie, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond had a Corsi For Percentage north of 70%, outshot their opponents five to zero, and had an expected goals for percentage of 94%(!). If their top line continues to create shots and chances, then Detroit should be alright, but they are bound to have other nights like this where they need their offensive depth to step up. 

Tale of Two Söderbloms

Sunday, Nov 9 vs. Chicago Blackhawks, 5-1 Loss

Despite the shot count in this one, Detroit really made it too easy on Arvid Söderblom in net for Chicago, putting a lot of their shots on net from distance and without significant traffic. Detroit won the advanced stats battle by a hefty margin, but we’re not really in moral victory territory there. Did they control 70% of the expected goals, yes but that doesn’t matter much when they only scored a single goal. Detroit’s top-six created lots of chances but if this team can’t score without their top players running hot, then they’ve got some other issues to worry about.

Recap

3 Takeaways From the Week

Depth Isn’t Good Enough to Carry When Top-6 Goes Quiet

Detroit’s top-six created lots of chances but if this team can’t score without their top players running hot, then they’ve got some other issues to worry about. Their typical top-six of Finnie/Larkin/Raymond and then DeBrincat/Kasper/Kane accumulated a total of 2 points in their three games this week. Some of that is just shooting percentage regression, but it’s also an issue that the top power play unit has gone 0/11 in these games.

With their top-six mostly playing well but being snake-bitten, Detroit has needed their depth players, guys like JT Compher, Andrew Copp, Mason Appleton, and more, to step up and create something offensively. They simply haven’t been good enough, and Detroit’s lack of depth offense has hit them especially hard with their top lines going cold.

Kasper’s Sophomore Slump

I’ve seen lots of people talking about Marco Kasper’s sophomore slump so let’s do a quick dive into the numbers. Kasper has just three points so far this season through 16 games, just a 15 point pace. However, when we take a look under the hood it’s clear that Kasper is actually having a decent start and should be due for some increased puck luck going forward. 

His rate metrics (CF%, SF%, xGF%) are all improved this year compared to his impressive rookie season, but the really telling thing is that Detroit’s shooting percentage this year with Kasper on the ice is an abysmal 6.72%. Detroit as a team is scoring on 9.44% of their shots this season (which is 25th in the league), so even if the team was scoring at their average rate with him on the ice, his box stats could look a lot more solid.

Danielson is Ready For Primetime

Nate Danielson (ninth overall, 2023 Draft) made his NHL debut on Sunday against the Blackhawks and looked like one of Detroit’s top six or seven forwards right from the jump. Whether it was his forechecking pressure, his dangerous shot, or his playmaking on the second power play unit, he looked just like Red Wings fans hoped he would. 

I do think Danielson was on track to make the Red Wings out of training camp if he hadn’t been hurt (I think he would’ve taken Michael Brandsegg-Nygård’s spot), so it’s great to see him jumping into the lineup and making an impact right away. I wouldn’t be surprised if Danielson played his way into being a coin flip for 2C/3C with Kasper in the near future. 

3 Stars of the Week

Okay, we can do this, did the goalies look good? No. Okay, did anyone score an important or memorable goal? Also no. Hmm, did anyone get multiple points or a win or anything? No?

Alright, let’s skip this one this week, meet you back here next weekend.

Prospect to Watch

Trey Augustine, G, Michigan State University (NCAA)

Trey Augustine had a phenomenal weekend, landing back-to-back wins against the high-powered Penn State who have three of the NCAA’s top-9 scorers as well as projected first overall pick in the upcoming NHL Draft Gavin McKenna (17th in NCAA scoring).

Augustine held the Nittany Lions to just one goal on Friday night on 24 shots (.958 sv%) and had an even better game on Saturday, putting up a shutout against 36 shots. That adds up to a weekend save percentage of .983 which is absurd! Augustine continues to show why he is so highly regarded in the goaltending world, and is looking more than ready for a serious opportunity as a pro. 

Upcoming Games

Thursday, Nov. 13 vs. Anaheim Ducks at 7PM ET

Saturday, Nov. 15 vs. Buffalo Sabres at 7PM ET

Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. New York Rangers at 7PM ET

In Other News

Nicholas Giannone:
How Patrick Kane’s Injury Impacts the Red Wings’ Top Six and Power Play

Tony Wolak:
Red Wings Need to Improve Lack Lustre 5-on-5 Offense

Devin Little:
Red Wings Prospect Report: Plante, Elite Goaltending & More

Logan Horn:
Red Wings Call Up Nate Danielson From AHL