Red Wings Weekly #8 – Turkey Hangover

Detroit controlled play for long stretches in this game, but some baffling defensive mistakes by their depth defenders put them in a 3-1 hole in the first period. The team fought well from that point on, but wasn’t able to make up the difference despite a power play goal from the second unit and another goal from Dylan Larkin

Game Recap

Red Wings vs. Last Place Team – What Could Go Wrong?

Wednesday, Nov. 26 vs. Nashville Predators – 6-3 Loss

Nashville came into this game with 16 points and a firm grasp on the 32nd spot in the league standings. We should’ve known at that point what was coming. Simon Edvinsson’s absence due to illness was really felt in this one, with Detroit’s already struggling defensive core taking a beating. After scoring two power play goals in the second period, Detroit fell apart in the third, allowing two goals in the first 140 seconds. After the Red Wings tied up the game, they let it go once again, allowing the next three goals. This game was the first time this season that Nashville has scored more than four goals in a game. 

Black-Eye Friday

Friday, Nov. 28 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning – 6-3 Loss

This game wasn’t as bad as the score looked on the whole, and it certainly wasn’t as embarrassing as losing to Nashville, but you don’t get any points in the standings for playing well. You get points for wins and this was Detroit’s third straight loss and their eighth loss this year by three goals or more. Again, defensive mistakes and lackluster goaltending was their undoing. Who could’ve guessed!?

Moose on the Loose(?)

Saturday, Nov. 29 vs. Boston Bruins – 3-2 Shootout Loss

Despite a late tying goal by Michael Rasmussen (a goal by a bottom-six forward?!), Detroit failed to put the game away despite a power play in overtime. At least the Red Wings earned a single point in the standings, although their outlook is a lot more grim than it was a week ago. Head coach Todd McLellan put Emmitt Finnie back on the top line and they scored a beautiful goal as a trio. I know they’re trying to get more forwards going, but that top line just works. 

3 Takeaways From the Week

1. Third Pairing Needs a Facelift

Detroit’s top four of Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider, Axel Sandin Pellikka, and Edvinsson has mostly been solid, with flashes of both brilliance and concerning mistakes. Overall, they’ve been good, but that can’t be said for the third pairing. Albert Johansson is the only consistent third pairing defender in Detroit this year, and the Red Wings have been outscored 11-23 in his 5v5 minutes so far, an abysmal 32% GF% (stats via. Natural Stat Trick). 

However, that pales to Travis Hamonic’s 16.7% GF%, getting outscored 3-15 in his nearly 200 5v5 minutes. Let me put that into perspective, when Hamonic is on the ice and a goal is scored, the chance that it’s Detroit’s opponent scoring is over 80%. The Red Wings could use an addition on the bottom pair, but even better would be someone capable of playing top-four minutes who could push either Chiarot or ASP further down the lineup to play softer minutes.

2. Detroit’s Top Pair is Absolutely Elite

In contrast, Detroit has often employed a super-charged top pairing of Seider and Edvinsson to exceptional results. Among defense pairings that have played a minimum of 100 minutes, Detroit’s top pair leads the league in shots for percentage (SF% of 63%), has the sixth highest Corsi For Percentage (CF% of 59%), and the 10th highest Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF% of 58%). 

Whenever Detroit is in trouble, it’s nice that they can always trot out this excellent pairing, much akin to how the Edmonton Oilers will double up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to make something happen. The Red Wings would surely love to have Seider and Edvinsson split duty, giving them a defender that they trust on the ice for at least 45 minutes a night, but they’ve been so porous defensively this year that they’ve needed to load up to at least win the 15-20 minutes that these two play together at even strength each night.

3. Ice Cold PDO

You may be familiar with the metric known as PDO, but for the uninitiated, here is how it works on the team level. You take the team’s total save percentage and their total shooting percentage and add them together. If you reach 100 (say with a save percentage of 91% or .910% and a shooting percentage of 9%), that is considered fair luck. A highly lucky team might be a couple of points above 100, and an unlucky team might be a few below. 

Detroit’s PDO to this point is an abysmal 96.7, good for 31st in the NHL ahead of only the Nashville Predators. While it’s not fair to say that Detroit’s luck is absolutely sure to rebound, since save percentage is largely skill-based and relies on a position of great need for the Red Wings, it is very likely to rise back up just a bit. The last time a team had a lower PDO than 96.7 over a full season was six years ago . . . when the 2019/20 Red Wings had a PDO of 96.0. 

I expect Detroit’s shooting percentage will increase a little, considering the talent they have, though their save percentage could hold at its current rate of .871 SV%. Detroit currently has the 30th ranked save percentage in the NHL, ahead of only the Predators and the much maligned Oilers goaltenders. 

3 Stars of the Week

1. Dylan Larkin – 2G, 3A

1. Lucas Raymond – 1G, 3A

1. Michael Rasmussen – 2G, 1A in 2GP

Prospect to Watch

Eddie Genborg, LW, Timrå IK (SHL)

Eddie Genborg has had a phenomenal first half for Timrå, scoring 15 points through 24 games, good enough for second among all U20 players as an 18-year-old. For reference, in his draft+1 year, Lucas Raymond scored 18 points in 34 games.

Genborg’s 6-foot-2 frame has helped his game translate well against men, winning puck battles, getting to the middle of the ice, and protecting the puck much better than I would typically expect from an 18-year-old. He’s scoring more than Anton Frondell, the third overall pick of the 2025 Draft so far, and is under contract with Timrå for the 2026-27 season.

Upcoming Games

Tuesday, December 2 vs. Boston Bruins @ 7pm ET

Thursday, December 4 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:30pm ET

Saturday, December 6 vs. Seattle Kraken @ 10pm ET

In Other News

Devin Little:
3 Things the Red Wings are Thankful For in 2025

Jordan Orth:
Red Wings Player Grades Through First Quarter of 2025-26 Season