Revisiting Anaheim Ducks Expectations After Their Hot Start

Kreider and Trouba Bring New York Grit to the “Rangers South”

Coaching and Structure Elevating Anaheim Ducks Expectations

Joel Quenneville’s arrival brought instant stability. Anaheim now plays with detail, pace, patience, and consistent effort, hallmarks of his previous Stanley Cup teams. The breakout patterns are cleaner, the neutral-zone turnovers are down, and the counter-attacks are lethal. These are not Greg Cronin’s Ducks, as Quenneville has refined the team into a disciplined five-man system. Also behind the bench, Jay Woodcroft has quietly transformed the power play into one of the league’s best. Anaheim ranks 10th at 23.7 percent, driven by fluid puck movement and net-front traffic. The Ducks have outshot opponents 70–7 on the man advantage and posted a 96 percent expected-goal share at 5v4, per Natural Stat Trick. The penalty kill remains a weakness (76.5 percent), but the structure is tightening.

The Statistical Picture

At five-on-five, Anaheim’s improvement is clear. Their 51.8 percent Corsi-for rate and 56.1 goals-for percentage signal growing control, even if the 48 percent expected-goals rate warns of slight overperformance. The team’s PDO of 1.029 reflects hot shooting (11.4 percent) and reliable goaltending (.915 at even strength). Offence drives the success: 4.14 goals per game, first in the NHL, with balanced contributions across the lineup. The Ducks have already scored seven or more goals four times in their first 13 games, becoming the first team to do so since the 1990s Pittsburgh Penguins led by Jaromir Jagr. The Ducks’ top line of Kreider–Carlsson–Terry has posted a 68.6 percent expected-goal share at 5v5 per MoneyPuck, elite by any standard. Defensively, the blue line has tightened behind Trouba, LaCombe, Zellweger, and Mintyukov, each averaging above 47 percent in shot quality metrics.

The Dostal Effect and Defensive Reality

Goaltender Lukas Dostal has brought calm to the chaos. Through 12 starts, he’s 8-3-1 with a .908 save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against average. While the numbers aren’t spectacular, the timing of his saves has been. Anaheim’s penalty kill still surrenders dangerous looks, allowing 26 percent of shots and over 20 percent of high-danger attempts, but Dostal’s positioning and rebound control have prevented blowouts. Backup Petr Mrazek’s limited workload (3-0-0) underscores Dostal’s reliability as the true starter. As Quenneville’s defensive layers develop and solidify, expect the goals-against numbers to fall closer in line with their possession trends.

Power Play Precision

Woodcroft’s design has brought purpose and variety. Carlsson orchestrates from the half-wall, manipulating penalty kills with poise beyond his years. Kreider camps in front, where he’s become one of the league’s most efficient tip threats again. The Ducks have already scored ten power-play goals, equal to their total from mid-December last year. Their 93 percent Corsi-for rate and 90 percent shot-share with the man advantage rank among league leaders. It’s not just the structure that stands out; it’s the confidence. Anaheim’s power play now looks deliberate rather than desperate, a signature of elite coaching coordination.

Analytics vs. Reality

Models still show caution. MoneyPuck gives Anaheim an 82.5 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 7.3 percent shot at reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Advanced Hockey Stats projects them for 86 points and just a 36 percent playoff probability, citing a modest expected-goal share profile. Yet every metric agrees on one thing, the Ducks are trending up fast. They currently sit sixth in MoneyPuck’s power rankings, ahead of perennial contenders like Tampa Bay and Toronto. While their 48 percent xGF% suggests they’re outperforming expectations, it’s not unsustainable given the team’s strong finishing talent and above-average goaltending.

Resetting Anaheim Ducks Expectations Going Forward

Before the season, Anaheim’s internal goal was simple. They wanted to stay competitive, develop young talent, and make the playoffs. That narrative has shifted entirely. Now, the expectation is a top-three finish in the Pacific Division. With Quenneville’s system settling in, Carlsson emerging as a true top-line centre, and Gauthier pacing for 40 goals, this isn’t a fluke stretch, it’s an inflection point. Veterans like Kreider and Trouba have legitimized the dressing room culture, and the kids have responded. If the penalty kill sharpens and Dostal maintains consistency, Anaheim’s underlying numbers will catch up to their record.

The Last Word

For the first time in nearly a decade, Anaheim Ducks expectations feel both ambitious and realistic. Their offence is unstoppable, their stars are emerging, and their veterans are leading. The metrics show progress, not luck. As they continue to blend youthful creativity with championship-calibre guidance, the Ducks are no longer playing for respect, they’re playing for position. And if this start is any indication, the rest of the Pacific is suddenly on the clock.