Ridly Greig and his 2025-26 Point Total Projection for the Ottawa Senators

Today we are going to talk about a point projection, and it is for one of the Ottawa Senators biggest unknowns for this discussion, that being the super pest, Ridly Greig. Greig has many of the skills required to put up points. However, he is well suited for a depth role, to help you grind out games. He has puck skills, is often on the puck, skates hard, and has a nose for the net. So, let’s try to crack the code on if he will put up a breakout year offensively, or stick to his status-quo, grinder role.

Ridly Greig‘s 2025-26 Point Projection

If we start by reviewing Greig’s pre-NHL statistics, there is some potential. In his last year in junior, in 2021-22, he played for the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings. Moreover, that season could be recognized as a breakout offensive season. Despite only lacing them up in 39 games, he had 26 goals and totaled 63 points. Furthermore, he showed some touch in the professional ranks the next season. With the Belleville Senators that year, he had again just 39 games, but scored 15 times, he also added 14 assists. Impressive point-per-game numbers for a professional in his rookie year.

Now if we move on to his NHL career, let’s start with his individual statistics. He’s still just played 170 games, and carried an 11.4 shooting percentage. In addition, he has been trying to increase his offensive output, and doing well at it. In 2023-24, he had 13 goals and 13 assists for 26 points in 72 games played. Then last year, same amount of goals but he bumped up the other numbers. He tallied 21 assists, 34 points in 78 games. However, his rate of scoring didn’t really increase. That’s because his average ice time also jumped, from 14:45 to an impressive 17:05. So, even though he had eight more points, he played six more games, and had a lot more ice time.

Investigating Some of Greig’s Underlying Analytics

There’s another angle for Greig to look to improve, if he wants to post better offensive numbers. Some of his underlying stats have some room for improvement. His even-strength Corsi-for percent relative was -5.4 in 2024-25. Also, his points-per-60-minutes was only 1.5, that was, interestingly enough, the same as 2023-24. However, the idea is, that the level of Pts/60 isn’t going to get it done in terms of big offensive numbers.

Him having a better offensive season, is likely as simple as him going on a hot streak. At the very least, he has seemed to establish himself consistency-wise, thus developing a baseline for how many points to expect from him in a full NHL campaign.

In 2023-24, Greig had cycled through the lineup a lot more than he did in 2024-25. Most of his 2023-24 offensive productivity was from playing on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux, no kidding eh. However, he played a lot with Dominik Kubalik and Mathieu Joseph. That invariably hurt his bottom line.

He did play regularly on the power play in 2024-25, albeit in a secondary role. It can be difficult to develop rhythm and chemistry, if you are not on your team’s top power play unit. That was likely the case for Greig, as his nine points on the power play last year, wouldn’t do a lot to boost his bottom line, in terms of total points.

Who Could Possibly Forget, the GAP Line

Last year Greig teamed up with Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio on the GAP line. Even though there appears to be some questions on the Sens exact line combinations, it seems we can use that line as a good baseline for Greig. That line was so effective for Ottawa in 2024-25, a true third line, if they can find that same chemistry, why wouldn’t head coach Travis Green ride with them again in 2025-26. At the very least, it does seem like Greig and Pinto will link up on the Sens third line. They might even continue the connection on the specialty teams, whether that’s the second power play or even the penalty kill.

In any case, it does seem like Greig can expect similar ice time this year coming as he did in 2024-25. As we see it, his opportunity in terms of offensive situations, wouldn’t change tangibly either. Therefore, the only way for him to increase his offensive production, will be natural growth and development. Of course, from one year to the next, that is not necessarily easy to do. His biggest contributor to improved success, will likely fall on the chemistry with his linemates. Also, the more he plays with the top-end talent the Sens forward group possesses would drive up him numbers. The more he gets called to skate with Brady Tkachuk, or even Claude Giroux, the higher the probability of him increasing his career totals.

Of course, the Sens don’t need him to score. They need him to do what he does. Get in the face of opponents, don’t give them any space, and get that puck, and wear them down until the scorers jump on. The Senators have plenty of offensive talent like Batherson, Stutzle, and Tkachuk to cover that burden. Greig is a role player, and if he isn’t scoring a ton, it really doesn’t impact the Sens bottom line.

Finally, Our Point Estimate

So, to give you our final point projection for Ridly Greig, we will consider what we have discussed. It seems like the template for his game from 2024-25, would do well to model his expected game in 2025-26. Give him third line minutes, throw in the specialty teams, and consider great chemistry with his linemates. Also, consider the fact that being sheltered on the third line, generally will keep you away from tougher matchups. His ice time and Pts/60 should improve slightly based on 2024-25, just from natural career trajectory. As the chemistry grows, his offensive efficiency should also improve, so we can expect a slight raise in his shooting percentage. For these reasons, and of course assuming a similar amount of games, in the 75+ range, we will forecast the following. Look for Greig to be at 14-18 goals this year. Also, we can expect his assists values to be from 20-25. Therefore, he should be able to increase his total points, with the low end looking like 2024-25 total of 34, but all the way up to 43 or 44.