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Rookie or veteran? Why Rory Kerins deserved a spot on the Calgary Flames over Justin Kirkland

Originally posted on The Win Column | By Joshua Serafini | Last updated Oct 3, 2025 4:16 PM ET

The 2025–26 regular season is almost here, and the Calgary Flames roster is almost set. One of the big questions facing the team was who will start the year as the team’s fourth-line centre? After letting Kevin Rooney walk in free agency, there was an opening down the middle of the Flames’ fourth line. After placing Rory Kerins on waivers yesterday, we have our answer as Justin Kirkland has won the spot.

Here’s why Rory Kerins, and not Kirkland, deserved to start the season as the team’s fourth line centre.

A team in need of offence

It’s no secret that the Flames desperately need to find some more offence this season. After finishing as the NHL’s fourth-worst offence last year, something has to give. Had the Flames had an even below-average offence instead of a terrible one, they would’ve been in the playoffs. Now entering 2025–26 with an identical core forward group, the only area to improve that offence is on the fourth line. Enter Kerins.

The 2020 sixth-round pick is certainly not an elite offensive talent by any stretch, but he carries some intriguing upside when it comes to putting the puck in the net. You don’t post 118 points in 67 games in the OHL without some offensive talent. While it took him a couple seasons to fully adapt to the pro game after his breakout year in junior, Kerins exploded last year with 33 goals and 61 points in 63 AHL games to pace the Calgary Wranglers in both categories.

That’s the kind of production that warrants a long look in the NHL, and yet Kerins was only used in four NHL games last season. Instead, the Flames trotted out Rooney as the fourth line option, and he did little to nothing to help the Flames’ porous offence with only five goals in 70 games. The Flames look to have made that same mistake again in 2025–26 with Kirkland earning the spot.

While Kirkland offers the same intangibles Rooney did as a veteran and respected locker room guy, his offensive talent pales in comparison to Kerins. Across 30 career NHL games, Kirkland has managed just two goals and eight points. During his last year in the AHL in 2023–24, he posted just eight goals in 43 games. That very same season in the AHL, Kerins posted 16 goals as an AHL rookie.

Last season, Kirkland was incredibly inefficient offensively as well. Despite logging 21 games, he posted just two single goals and rarely generated any chances on net. Here’s his rank among Flames forwards last year with at least 100 minutes TOI.

Stat	Justin Kirkland	Team rank
Shots	9	17th out of 18
iCF	21	18th out of 18
iHDCF	5	17th out of 18

Kirkland was doing cardio out there last year. He was averaging under 0.5 shots per game. In other words, every two games, he’d manage one shot on net. In terms of general chances put towards the net, he tallied just 21 iCF in 21 games, and a measly five iHDCF. You’re not going to help offensively when you’re managing a high danger chance once every four games. The only Flame who was worse at generating shots and chances last year was Walker Duehr.

With Kirkland, you know what you’re getting on offence, not much of anything. You send him out there and hope he can stay afloat until he comes off. With Kerins, you have the potential for some legitimate offensive depth, something this roster desperately needs.

Justin Kirkland wasn’t very good in 2024–25

Now, this may seem like a bold claim considering the reputation Kirkland earned in the media last season, but when you dig into the numbers, it starts to paint a clear picture. Kirkland was flat-out bad with the Flames last season.

Flashy shootout goals aside, Kirkland was regularly caved in at 5v5 in 2024–25. That’s not exactly what you want out of a fourth-line centre who doesn’t offer much offensively either. Here’s where Kirkland ranked in some major metrics last season, and his rank among Flames forwards with at least 100 minutes TOI.

Stat	Justin Kirkland	Team rank
CF%	40.31	18th out of 18
xGF%	40.72	18th out of 18
HDCF%	47.93	10th out of 18
xGF/60 Relative	-0.57	15th out of 18
xGA/60 Relative	0.19	15th out of 18

Kirkland was dead last for both CF% and xGF% among Flames forwards with at least 100 minutes. He finished behind the likes of Duehr and Jakob Pelletier, who both hit waivers last year. Relative to the rest of his team, his expected goals and against per 60 don’t look much better, ranking 15th in both categories. He wasn’t generating much of anything offensively and was also giving up a lot the other way. See where this is going?

Kirkland just simply didn’t contribute much in either zone last year. Even as a face-off specialist, he failed, winning just 43% of his draws. For context, that number was tied with winger Matt Coronato, who took right around the same amount of draws.

The future is now

The Flames really had nothing to lose by choosing Kerins over Kirkland. One is young, coming off a superb AHL season, and may end up getting claimed on waivers today. The other is a career AHL journeyman who doesn’t do much of anything well in either zone. Kirkland is a nice piece to have in the AHL as a call-up option, but Kerins should’ve been the one staying in the NHL this season to see what he can do. Now the Flames risk once again pushing a young player out without ever seeing what he can do.

This article first appeared on The Win Column and was syndicated with permission.

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