Salary-cap deep dive for the New York Rangers

With Lafreniere scuffling through his first few NHL seasons, it came as no surprise that he followed Kakko in signing a bridge deal.  He’s fared a bit better in his first year under Peter Laviolette although he hasn’t yet become that consistent top threat that they hoped he’d be when they picked him first overall in 2020.  If he keeps at his current pace and then takes another small step forward next year, he’ll certainly do enough to beat his $2.65M qualifying offer.  But will New York be convinced that he’s worthy of that long-term big-money contract in the $7M range if that happens?  Or might they try one more bridge deal (likely a one-year pact) worth closer to half that?  It’s still early but there is a wide range of outcomes when it comes to his next deal.

Vesey opted to avoid going through free agency, instead choosing to sign this contract in-season last year.  It gives him some stability while he has outperformed the deal so far as a capable depth scorer.  Having bounced around in his career will hurt him a bit if he gets to free agency next time as teams will wonder if he’s turned a late corner or if he’s just a fit for how the Rangers play.  Still, a small raise at a minimum should be doable.

Miller had no choice but to take a bridge deal over the summer as well given New York’s limited cap space.  He continues to be a valuable two-way piece on their back end despite not seeing much power play time.  Miller will be owed a $4.646M qualifying offer in 2025 but his next contract could check in closer to double his current one if a long-term agreement is worked out.  Jones, on the other hand, has had a very limited role so far.  He’ll need to lock down a full-time spot if he wants to reach the seven-figure mark on his next deal.

Shesterkin has been one of the top goalies since coming over for the 2019-20 campaign although his first half of this season has been more pedestrian.  Still, the 28-year-old is regarded as one of the top netminders league-wide and he’ll be well-positioned to capitalize on that reputation on this next contract.  He’ll likely look to Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (seven years, $8.5M on his recent extension) as a starting point for discussions.

Signed through 2025-26

F Artemi Panarin ($11.643M, UFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($8M, UFA)

No one will ever call Panarin’s contract – the richest for a winger in NHL history – a bargain but at the same time, it’s fair to say that he has lived up to it so far, producing at a 105-point per 82-game rate to put him among the top-scoring forwards in the league.  There’s little reason to think a big collapse is on the horizon but that concern should come into play on his next deal, one that’s likely to be more of a medium-term agreement at a small discount on his current rate given the age risk.

Trouba hasn’t been able to get back to the offensive highs he reached in his final season with Winnipeg but for the tough minutes he logs, the captain is still providing some value on this deal.  Having said that, if he wants to land any sort of sizable raise, he’ll need to rediscover at least some of that scoring touch.  Otherwise, his next deal should check in close to this one.

Signed through 2026-27 or longer

F Filip Chytil ($4.4375M through 2026-27)
D Adam Fox ($9.5M through 2028-29)
F Barclay Goodrow ($3.642M through 2026-27)
F Chris Kreider ($6.5M through 2026-27)
F Vincent Trocheck ($5.625M through 2028-29)
F Mika Zibanejad ($8.5M through 2029-30)

It took Zibanejad a couple of years after joining the Rangers to really live up to the offensive expectations placed on him when Ottawa picked him sixth overall in 2011 but since then, he hasn’t looked back.  He has blossomed into an all-situations, true top-line center and someone filling that role for this price point is a bit of a bargain, at least for the time being.  Given the heavy minutes he logs, it’s fair to expect some sort of struggles over the next six seasons and that expectation has been factored into the contract which decreases in salary as the years progress.  But for right now, the Rangers are getting strong bang for their buck for Zibanejad and have done so for the past several years going back to his previous contract.

Kreider was one of the few veterans who wasn’t moved out when they were selling, a decision that has worked out quite well for him as he has become a true top-line power forward who even managed a 52-goal season two years ago.  He’s rebounding well this year after a step back last season and even as he ages, that type of physicality and scoring touch will always be in high demand which bodes well for his next deal.  Trocheck has found another gear since coming over from Carolina a year and a half ago, giving the Rangers the solid second center that they had been seeking for quite a while.  Again, there are some age risks toward the end of the deal but he’s giving them a lot of surplus value early on.

Chytil had a breakout year last season, providing some hope that he’d fill the third center hole for the foreseeable future.  This year, he has been out with concussion trouble which makes him the centerpiece of what New York may or may not be able to do at the trade deadline (more on that shortly).  Contract-wise, if he can stay in the mid-40-point range, he could land a small raise on a long-term agreement in 2027.  But if he can take another leap forward, Chytil should push past the $6M mark.  New York paid a premium both in term and money to get Goodrow and it has not worked out as planned.  He has languished in the bottom six and is someone they’d certainly like to move.  The problem is how much they’d have to add to incentivize a team to take on the rest of this deal.

Buyouts

F Brad Richards ($1.056M through 2025-26, cap-exempt)

Retained salary transactions

None

Best value: Wheeler
Worst value: Goodrow

Looking Ahead

Let’s go back to Chytil.  He returned to North America this week for the next phase of his recovery.  If he’s able to return this season, New York will be out of LTIR and very tight to the Upper Limit, forcing them into a money-in, money-out situation (and perhaps a roster size under the maximum to accrue some flexibility).  But if they determine that Chytil won’t be back until the playoffs, then they’ll have $4.4 million at their disposal, opening up several opportunities that they wouldn’t have otherwise.  Until they get clarity on that front, they can’t do much.

Beyond this season, GM Chris Drury doesn’t have much flexibility coming up.  New deals for Kakko and Lindgren will take up a decent chunk of the cap space they’ll have while they’ll need to sign several players for close to the minimum to round out their roster.  A year later, Miller and Lafreniere will need big-ticket deals which could push their expenditure closer to $70M on just nine players.  Accordingly, the Rangers will likely be focused on short-term acquisitions for the foreseeable future.