Salary cap on the rise, CBA optimism, and expansion

The NHL held its Board of Governors meeting this week and with it came a brief update on some key issues from Gary Bettman regarding the league. We’ll take a high level look at some of the key items from a Maple Leafs perspective.

The projected $92.5M salary cap makes life easier for the Maple Leafs

It is not really a surprise that the salary cap is projected to increase. As of right now there isn’t another pandemic on the horizon and the NHL is still living the good life that comes from their gambling revenue. The Coyotes being replaced by a potentially profitable team in Utah will help so the new norm is that there will be more money to work with each summer.

That said, the $92.5M salary cap projection that Gary Bettman shared is on the conservative side of things. It would be a smaller increase than the one this summer and doesn’t account for if the NHLPA will want to use an inflator on it. The number is the safest bet, but realistically the number could go higher.

In a general sense, for the Maple Leafs, a team that not only looks to spend to the salary cap but also find interesting ways around it, more money to work with is certainly a positive. It should be easier for the Maple Leafs to continue to improve each season rather than be forced into making difficult decisions like I dunno, letting Zach Hyman walk.

The Leafs will have three key free agents that will need to be dealt with next summer. Matthew Knies isn’t going to break the bank, especially if the Leafs get his deal done sooner rather than later. John Tavares is someone the Leafs will have a walk away from number in mind that probably won’t be changed by the salary cap situation, but Mitch Marner potentially becomes more expensive as the salary cap goes up. Giving Marner the same cap percentage that William Nylander received when his contract was renewed would result in paying Marner $12.08M AAV. That’s possibly a number the Leafs could live with. Where it becomes interesting is that every other team in the NHL is seeing the salary cap go up too and Marner, along with Aaron Ekblad, Mikko Rantanen, and Igor Shesterkin have the opportunity to take advantage of an increasingly difficult to reach cap ceiling. How much Marner’s value on the open market factors into negotiations could make the rising salary cap less than a blessing for the Maple Leafs.

Rather than assume the worst, it’s problem best to take the situation for what it is and that is increased flexibility for the Maple Leafs. The Leafs presently have over $30M at their disposal for the 2025-26 season and at least in October the 2025 UFA class looks promising (fun fact, it won’t look as promising by June 30th.)

Bettman seems optimistic about the CBA

Right now it seems like good times a plenty for the NHL and NHLPA. Everyone is getting their money, the Olympics are happening, TV deals and expansion are on the horizon. No one is wanting to see the league grind to a halt despite there being some reasonable potential asks from the NHLPA regarding entry level contracts, restricted free agency, players safety, and making a shift from a hard salary cap to anything else.

The main thing is the pay cheques seem to be arriving on time in the correct amount, so there might not be interest in rocking the boat. This bodes well for the league and for the Maple Leafs who don’t need their competitive window interrupted by a labour stoppage.

While there is no doubt that there are plenty of benefits of not just extending the current CBA and looking at making improvements, there is also the potential that the NHL would close some of the loopholes that have been benefiting the Leafs as well. While Toronto hasn’t been one of the worst offenders when it comes to taking advantage of long term injuries, they have certainly used that additional cap space to their advantage over the years and reopening discussions would potentially take that away.

The one other thing that has been discussed that benefits everyone is potentially capping the preseason at 4 games, but adding 2 more to the regular season. The two additional regular season games seem unnecessary but if it shortens the preseason it is a small price to pay.

Expansion is on hold (for now)

Gary Bettman has been very vocal about how the NHL is looking to expand immediately and no one is seriously being vetted for expansion. That’s all well and good to say, but with the NHL reportedly having applications from Houston, Atlanta, Arizona, Quebec City, and Toronto (yes, that city where the Leafs play) it is likely that once the CBA is stabilized and the NHLPA can no longer ask for a cut of the expansion fee pie, expansion will happen rather rapidly.

The obvious one to talk about first is the potential of a Toronto expansion franchise. The idea of a second team in Toronto has made sense from the very first time the NHL expanded and it has never happened. The Toronto second franchise drought is as long as the Stanley Cup drought and if you think it is a good idea or not, it’s worth noting it has always been blocked by the Why the MLSE sale likely ends the dream of a second NHL team in Toronto – The Athletic (nytimes.com) As much as it would be a potentially good thing for Toronto hockey fans and would add an additional urgency for the Leafs to be successful, the reality is the sweetner for MLSE in the process would have to be astronomical.

Onto the general idea of expansion and it’s worth looking at the potential talent dilution that goes on with it. Each round of expansion increases the impact of high end talent in the league and most notably waters down the goaltending situation. The importance of having an Auston Matthews type star goes up with every expansion team and the Leafs seem to have a good handle on the core talent model that works from a expansion draft protection philosophy.

With expansion also comes the potential for the league to look at expanding the playoffs, and perhaps that is another thing that could be a CBA sticking point if the league chooses it to be. You can certainly see the league pushing for it but it isn’t something the players should give up too easily, but that is probably a topic for another day.