Senators Need a More Disciplined Ridly Greig in Game 6

In the playoffs, however, Greig hasn’t been nearly as effective. After five games, he currently has the lowest scoring-chance percentage, which compares the Senators scoring chances to the Maple Leafs’ scoring chances while he’s on the ice, at at a negative 7.32. Only one other player has a negative value in that stat, that being depth replacement Matthew Highmore, who’s averaging less than 10 minutes a game. Meanwhile, Greig is playing over 18 minutes a night.

Once again, Greig has been employed heavily in the defensive zone, starting 76.3% of the time in front of his goalie, but he’s rarely taken any draws. In five games, he’s taken just seven faceoffs and won three. That’s a significant drop from his regular season deployment. Instead, Pinto has taken the majority of draws while on the third line, winning 45% of them. Greig isn’t shooting as much, not blocking shots as much, and bringing less offence than he was just a few weeks ago.

Greig’s Problems Come Down to Poor Decision-Making

The biggest reason Greig hasn’t been as effective is that he’s sat in the box more times than any other Senators forward, leading the group with four minor penalties. On the surface, eight penalty minutes (PIM) isn’t that bad spread across five games; Winnipeg Jets defenders Luke Schenn and Logan Stanley both have over 30 PIMs in their series with the St. Louis Blues. But, more often than not, Greig has been penalized for plays that were not helping the play at all and demonstrated that he is not thinking his actions through.

The worst example is his tangle with Marner in Game 5. As I mentioned in the Senators Roundtable following the game, I completely understand Greig’s actions. He was frustrated that Marner got away with a blatant hold, stripping him of his stick and leaving it at centre ice. Instead of leaving his man and grabbing it, Greig skated up to Marner and did the one thing he could do to strip him of the puck – grab him.

Yes, it was a funny play, and it didn’t hurt the Senators, who scored on the resulting penalty kill. But it could have just as easily resulted in a game-tying goal from the Maple Leafs. The Senators’ penalty kill was 19th in the league in the regular season and has been one of the worst in the playoffs. Before the last game, it was operating at just a 61% effectiveness, just ahead of the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings. That was an unnecessary risk from Greig.

Earlier in the game, Greig was penalized for a cross-check on Matthew Knies. While it was far less egregious and arguably a weaker call, it was also the exact penalty that the Senators were struggling with in Game 1. They were too too careless with their sticks, and the refs called them on it almost every time. By Game 5, the rest of the team had adapted to watching where they put their sticks, but Greig didn’t, catching Knies up high right in front of the referee.

It’s not like Greig didn’t know, either. He was called for the exact same penalty in Game 1, catching Tavares up high in the corner and was initially assessed a five-minute major before being downgraded to a minor penalty. He thankfully wasn’t given any supplemental discipline, but it was seemingly discussed after the game. There was also the incident with Anthony Stolarz near the end of Game 2, where Greig was shoved by the Toronto goalie, but there was no call on the ice. While it looked bad enough for a penalty, Greig was already earning a reputation after his encounter with Stolarz in Game 1, where the two collided near the end of the game and could have easily resulted in a serious injury.

When Greig is on his game, he’s an incredibly effective agitator. He knows how to get under an opponent’s skin and can also contribute offensively. He’s done neither in this series, largely because he’s struggled to adapt his game for the playoffs. The Maple Leafs look largely unfazed when he’s on the ice, and they’ve let him get frustrated, which has resulted in several power-play chances for them.

Senators Need Everyone to Win Game 6

Game 5 was a full team effort. Nearly everyone was pulling their weight and playing perfect hockey, and as a result, they sailed past the lacklustre-looking Maple Leafs. Fans on both sides are well acquainted with Toronto’s demons in elimination games, but with Craig Berube behind the bench, there’s little chance they won’t come out guns blazing in Ottawa on Thursday night. That means the Senators will once again need to play perfectly and not give the Maple Leafs any chances. If they do, the cohort of Marner, Knies, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander will be sure to pounce.

Greig is a big part of the Senators’ offence. He’s aggravating to play against and makes opponents make mistakes. In this series, he’s been the opposite, yet the Senators have competed right along with Toronto. If he can get back to his game, Ottawa has a great chance to push this series to Game 7 and truly scare the Maple Leafs.

Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference.