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Thomas Chabot, Ottawa Senators (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Senators Playoff Hopes Lie in a Healthy Defence

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Dayton Reimer | Last updated Jan 8, 2026 9:35 AM ET

When the Ottawa Senators lost Brady Tkachuk early in the season with a hand injury, fans expected the worst. The Senators’ captain is the heart and soul of the team, and having him out for an extended period would certainly doom the season.

Yet, when Tkachuk finally returned 19 games later, the Senators were in OK shape, stringing together a 10-5-4 record, including some big wins against the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins. “Made the recovery a little bit better,” said Tkachuk after his return. “It made my life a lot easier, seeing all the wins.”

It was the same story for Linus Ullmark, who was granted a personal leave of absence, leaving Ottawa without its workhorse starting goalie. Still, in the four games following his departure, the Senators are 2-2, which isn’t bad considering they are now relying on two rookie goalies for the foreseeable future.

But when Thomas Chabot missed 15 games between November and December, Ottawa struggled to keep a .500 record, finishing with a 7-8-0 record before returning on Dec. 20, 2025. His injury revealed a much bigger issue that could threaten the Senators’ playoff hopes – the Senators have a perfectly constructed blue line and no depth to fill in an injury.

Senators Can’t Afford to Lose Any Defencemen

There’s no question that Chabot is a key member of the Senators. “I’m not going to sit here and say we don’t miss him,” Senators coach Travis Green said while Chabot was on the sidelines. “What’s probably been the most impressive thing with Chabot is he’s committed to defending the last year and a half. He’s such a gifted skater that it was easy for him just to play on the move.”

With him in the lineup, the Senators have a 13-8-5 record, which averages out to a 48-point pace over 41 games. While still under a .500 win percentage, that would put them just on the outside of the wild card race instead of ninth in the Eastern Conference.

But it doesn’t stop with Chabot. Whenever any of the Senators’ top six defencemen have been out with an injury, the team does worse. Tyler Kleven has missed five games this season, three of which were when he was the only defender out of the lineup. Although he plays on the third pair, Ottawa lost two of those three games, including the 7-5 blowout against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Nick Jensen has missed just one game, and although he isn’t the defender he used to be, Ottawa still lost that game he was out, 4-1 to the last-place Columbus Blue Jackets.

The only game Arten Zub has missed this season was on Dec. 4, when the Senators hosted the New York Rangers, who have struggled for long stretches of this season. Although Chabot was also out, Zub’s absence only made matters worse, and the Senators lost 4-2.

Jordan Spence hasn’t been as impactful as his five teammates, with the Senators going 4-2-3 during his absences, but he also has the lowest on-ice expected goals against per 60 minutes, sitting ninth among all NHL defencemen with a 2.06 average. The Spence/Kleven combo has also been one of the most effective pairings in the league. As of Jan. 6, 2026, they sit third in the lowest expected goals against per 60 among pairs who have played 250 minutes together. Jake Sanderson and Zub are first.

The Senators Lack Defensive Depth

There are, of course, other circumstances that are at play in a loss, but, on average, the Senators lose when they are missing a defenceman. This season, they’ve played 28 games without at least one of their six defencemen and have put up a 12-12-4 record. With everyone healthy, they have an 8-4-1 record. That’s a pace that wouldn’t just make the Senators a playoff team, but tied for second place in the NHL with 54 points.

The problem comes down to their replacements. Nik Matinpalo has been a solid replacement defender for the Senators, averaging 2.21 on-ice goals against per 60 minutes at even strength, but he also plays relatively sheltered minutes. In his 28 games this season, he’s averaged less than 14 minutes per night and 1:15 minutes shorthanded. But his presence doesn’t move the needle nearly as much as the defencemen ahead of him, as he’s only played when one of the six other defenders is injured.

After him, Dennis Gilbert is the only other defenceman who’s dressed for Ottawa this season, appearing in the 4-2 loss to the Rangers when Ottawa was without Zub and Chabot. Like Matinpalo, he didn’t play much, only skating 13:50 minutes and finishing with a 4.3 goals-against per 60 at even strength. That’s the worst average from a defenceman on the team this season.

Who else could they call up? Carter Yakemchuk is having a solid season in the American Hockey League (AHL), but isn’t ready to handle significant NHL minutes yet. Nor is Tomas Hamara, who is still adjusting to the pro pace in Belleville. Jorian Donovan and Lassi Thomson are viable options, as both have been solid two-way performers this season, and Thomson also has 18 NHL games plus 107 pro games in Europe under his belt.

The Senators also signed Cameron Crotty over the offseason for added defensive depth, and he could be a call-up if the Senators are hit with more long-term injuries. But he is much more of a risk, as the 26-year-old has played just two NHL games so far in his career, both of which were fairly unremarkable.

Is There a Trade in the Future?

According to The Hockey Writers’ Trade Bait List, two defencemen could find new homes before the March deadline: Rasmus Andersson and Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton is almost certainly out of the question. With two more years at $9 million per season, there’s no way that Ottawa could fit him into its roster. Add in his injury history, and it just doesn’t make sense to trade for him.

Anderrson has long been rumoured to be on the move and doesn’t look like he’ll re-sign with the Calgary Flames, but he also needs a new deal next season. Ottawa can afford Andersson’s current $4.55 cap hit, but there’s no way they can afford him next season, which would make him a very costly rental.

The Senators could look at adding Pavel Mintyukov, who has expressed a desire to earn more minutes elsewhere, but that’s also not a guarantee in Ottawa. With Sanderson and Chabot above him, he’d be competing with Kleven for third-pairing minutes on the left side. He

That’s likely the case for almost any trade the Senators could consider – their defence is already very good. The only concern is that they are only very good when they are all together. Any adjustments seem to hurt the team’s ability to win games. That might mean that the Senators need to ride this one out and hope for the best.