So are the 2025-26 Penguins actually good?

So much for predictable narratives.

Wasn’t 2025-26 supposed to represent the next completed rotation in the Pittsburgh Penguins’ 21-year generational stardom calendar? They owned the No. 1 overall pick in the 1984 NHL Draft and selected Mario Lemieux. He led them to two Stanley Cups and became a top-five player all-time. They owned the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 NHL Draft and selected Sidney Crosby. He led them to three Stanley Cups and became a top-five player all-time. Coming off three consecutive playoff misses and bottoming out with their lowest points percentage since 2005-06 last season, the Pens seemed preordained to win the 2026 Draft Lottery and nab their next franchise icon in Gavin McKenna, right?

But this team had other plans, apparently. We’re only a week away from the American Thanksgiving juncture, which has famously predicted playoff positioning, and the Pens hold a 10-5-4 record, good for third in the Metropolitan Division. That’s their best start to a season through 19 games since 2016-17, the last time they won the Stanley Cup. The success has come despite a non-stop parade of injuries, most significantly to top-line forward Rickard Rakell. Crosby, 38, and Evgeni Malkin, 39, have peppered the scoresheet with vintage efforts to keep the Pens shockingly competitive so far this season.

But is this team truly for real? Could we see two legends and fellow 20-season teammate Kris Letang get one last playoff run together? Let’s examine the Pens’ first quarter of 2025-26 in hopes of understanding whether it’s sustainable.

The surface stats check out on offense and defense

This we already knew, hence the 10 wins in 19 games. Through Tuesday’s action, Pittsburgh sat eighth in goals per game and allowed the second-fewest goals per game. The latter stat in particular is staggering. Crosby has been the key offensive driver, pacing for a career-high 52 goals, but he and Malkin have gotten help from surprising places. Perennial underachiever Anthony Mantha has put his talented mitts to work with eight goals in 17 games; big grinder Justin Brazeau’s six goals (in only 12 games) are more than halfway to his career best of 11. Even teenaged rookie Ben Kindel, selected in the 2025 NHL Draft’s first round, has buried five. Depth scoring was supposed to be a nightmare for this team but, at least in terms of completed games so far, the goals have shown up for the Pens.

The goals also haven’t gone into their net. Goaltending was a legendary disaster for the Pens last year, to the point Tristan Jarry allowed a goal on the first shot he faced in six of his first 22 games. But Jarry looked sharp early this season before a lower-body injury sidelined him, offseason acquisition Arturs Silovs has looked sharper, and sensational rookie Sergei Murashov has looked the sharpest. The three Pens stoppers have combined for a .917 save percentage this season, third-best in the NHL.

So, yeah, when you’re scoring goals and stopping goals from going in, you’re going to win games. But that doesn’t tell us yet if we can expect the results to continue. Let’s delve deeper.

Under the hood: Are the Pens lucky or good?

Are the Pens actually playing sustainably good hockey under new head coach Dan Muse, or have they simply gotten lucky so far?

Offensively, their habits don’t look overly impressive at first glance. Per 60 at 5-on-5, they sit in the NHL’s bottom half in shot attempts and shots, and they’re near the bottom of the league in scoring chances. They’ve made their chances count, however, ranking near the top in high-danger chances, and it may surprise you to know the Pens don’t have one of the higher shooting percentages. Their goal production more or less matches their expected production at 5-on-5. It’s the power play where they excel, converting at an NHL-best 34.1 percent so far this season. That rate won’t hold, as it would be the highest in NHL history if it did, but they actually lead the NHL in expected goals on the power play. They do have the highest shooting percentage in the league with the man advantage, but only one team generates more high-danger chances. In other words: the Pens are mostly earning all those power-play goals because they’re generating so many quality looks.

Defensively is where things look more suspect. The Pens aren’t absolute sieves but do land in the bottom third of the NHL when it comes to preventing shots, scoring chances and expected goals. The pairing of Parker Wotherspoon and Erik Karlsson has been above average at limiting scoring chances, but, sheesh, Ryan Shea and Kris Letang have not. Among 30 duos league-wide to play 200 minutes together at 5-on-5 so far this season, only the Edmonton Oilers’ maligned Darnell Nurse/Jake Walman pairing has surrendered more chances per 60 than Shea/Letang. The Pens, then, have been bailed out largely by their outstanding goaltending.

And yet, fascinatingly: they have the league’s No. 4 penalty kill at an excellent 85.7 percent, and it’s totally legit. Only one team allows fewer expected goals on the PK, and the Pens allow the fewest high-danger chances. They legitimately have the best special teams in the NHL right now. Credit is thus owed to Muse and the Pens’ whole coaching staff, which has Todd Nelson working the power play and Mike Stothers overseeing the PK.

The verdict

The Pens are playing over their heads…but only a little. They don’t generate a ton of 5-on-5 offense and rely on being opportunistic, with chance quality trumping quantity. Their goaltending has masked the fact that they’re a pretty mediocre defensive team. At the same time: they’re doing plenty of sustainably good things, especially on special teams. They actually haven’t been all that lucky, and when they’re getting great goaltending three deep, chances are at least one of Jarry, Silovs and Murashov can deliver a strong wire-to-wire season.

So are the Pens a playoff team? It’s too early to tell, but it’s not out of the question. What we can pretty confidently say at this point: they are not a lottery team.