Stan Bowman’s slow play approach to the Oilers Free Agency seems wise

WHO IMPROVED IN THE WEST?

The Oilers spanked Dallas and Vegas and won their last four games over LA to go 12-4 in three rounds in the West Conference bracket of the Stanley Cup playoffs. While the Oilers didn’t make a big splash, did any of the top teams in the West drastically improve?

Vegas landed Marner, along with Colton Scissons and Jeremy Lauzon, but they lost Alex Pietrangelo and Nic Hague on the blueline. Vegas looks different, but are they clearly better? Pietrangelo averaged the most minutes/game on their blueline at 22:24 while Hague averaged 17:00/game. Lauzon would replace Hague, but now Zach Whitecloud will move into their top-four and Kaeden Korczak will be their other third pairing defender. It is a clear downgrade from Pietrangelo/Hague to Lauzon/Korczak. But Marner is a huge offensive boost. They will still be competitive.

The Kings spent a lot of money, but I don’t see Ceci, Dumoulin, Perry, Anton Forsberg and Joel Armia eating up almost $16m in AAV and another $2m in bonuses for Perry. Those are fourth line players and #4-6 defenders and a backup goalie. The Kings lost Gavrikov, and will want Brandt Clarke to play more, but I’m not sold that the Kings are really any better. They will need to improve from within.

Vancouver retaining Boesers was huge for them. They added Evander Kane and if Demko stays healthy they will be in the mix in the Pacific again, but are they noticeably better?

How about the Oilers? I like to look at a team’s regular season roster (up to the trade deadline) from last year and compare it to this year.

Here’s how the Oilers forward group played last season up to the deadline.

They had 10 forwards play 52 or more of their 59 games up to the deadline:

RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Skinner-Henrique-Brown
Kapanen (35GP) -Janmark-Perry

Those were the 12 most common forwards. Derek Ryan was the 13th forward playing 33 games while Noah Philp (12), Drake Caggiula (7) and Matt Savoie (3) also played a few games.

As of today the Oilers forwards look to be (these are not guaranteed line combos):

Henrique-McDavid-Hyman
RNH-Draisaitl-Mangiapane
Frederic-Tomasek-Savoie
Janmark-Philp/Lazar-Kapanen

They removed Arvidsson, Skinner, Brown, Perry and Ryan (combined for 38 goals) in exchange for Andrew Mangiapane, Frederic, Tomasek, Savoie and Philp/Lazar. Can the new five players average 7.6 goals? Very likely.

The Oilers blue line looks better on paper than last season’s opening roster.

Edmonton used nine different D-men before the trade deadline. Brett Kulak and Evan Bouchard played all 58 games, Mattias Ekholm (58), Ty Emberson (57) and Darnell Nurse (56) were the regulars. Troy Stecher played 46 games, while Travis Dermott (10) and John Klingberg and Josh Brown each played eight.

This year the Oilers will start with Bouchard, Ekholm, Kulak, Nurse and Jake Walman and one of Troy Stecher, Ty Emberson or Alec Regula. They also have a wildcard in Atro Leppanen.

The top-five D with Walman is better than the top-five last year through 59 games.

The goalies look to be the same with Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Of the 50 NHL goalies who started 19 or more games up to the deadline, Skinner was 33rd in save percentage and Pickard was 36th, while Pickard was 22nd and Skinner 32nd in GAA. They had a combined record of 34-21-4.

The Oilers team save percentage was .897. They were eighth in GF/GP at 3.25 and 13th in GA/GP at 2.92. Their PP was seventh at 25.2 percent and the PK was 26th at 75 percent.

When I look at their roster, I see more skill on defence and their forward group is a bit quicker. The penalty kill must be better.

Ultimately I think the decisions at the trade deadline will have a big impact on their quest to win the Stanley Cup. Bowman will likely want to upgrade his second pair RD and they will have 3/4 of a season to find out what they need most upfront. A scoring winger? Some more size/grit in the bottom six. And the main question will be how do they look in goal. If the goalies are just average, I’d expect Bowman to add a new goalie.

Being patient with goalies isn’t the worst thing. Imagine if Florida had traded Bobrovsky in 2022 when they were rumoured to be trying, because he hadn’t played as well as they’d hoped. Skinner isn’t Bobrovsky, few are, but I believe the Oilers will make a change to their goalie coach, and that move combined with Skinner being a year older with more experience under his belt they believe he will continue to improve.

The regular season does matter. It allows you to make the playoffs, and it provides an opportunity for the Oilers to fine tune aspects of their game. Their penalty kill has to be better in the regular season, so they have a better chance for success in the playoffs. The Oilers made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup final, despite having the 348th ranked PK among 349 teams who played at least 10 playoff games in one season. It was terrible at 67.1 percent and played a big role in them losing to Florida as they allowed seven PP goals in the first four games, and often in the first period to put the Oilers in chase mode.

Edmonton did not have a flashy free agency, but I don’t think that is a bad thing. Their core is still intact, and Bowman will have time to evaluate his team.

I’ve found it perplexing how pundits and some fans  have talked about the Oilers since losing the Cup Final. It’s like they weren’t any good and have massive holes to fill. They lost in the Final after cruising to the Final. The Final was tied 2-2, before the Oilers got outplayed in the final two games.

The Oilers are very close. They don’t need a major overhaul. They need some tweaks, and I think the first 60 games of the regular season will provide Bowman and head coach Kris Knoblauch the opportunity to see where they need to upgrade at the deadline.