Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Stanley Cup Final bets: Two Game 3 props

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Jun 8, 2023 11:49 AM ET

With Florida's back against the wall, the investment I'm most confident making is in Panthers players shooting the puck. They're desperate and are typically a shot-happy team. On home ice, it's likely now or never for this team to make this a series.

With that established, I'm running a pair of SOG straights on the players I see as most likely to deliver tonight.

Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 SOG (-108 FD)

I was given two FanDuel 50% profit boosts, and am using my first on Tkachuk here to get him at +139. I still like the -108 price as a straight.

Matthew Tkachuk has certainly been a culprit in this 0-2 start for Florida. He seems addicted to picking up 10-minute misconducts, a weird hobby to get into in the Stanley Cup Final.

Tkachuk has to be more disciplined and set the tone tonight, and it appears he knows it.

Matthew Tkachuk calls tonight the Panthers’ biggest game of the season. On his own game, says he needs to have the puck more tonight, get more pucks to the net, shoot more. Needs to find more room through that Vegas D. pic.twitter.com/l76i7UoqSW
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) June 8, 2023

I say we listen to the man and load up his SOG prop. Tkachuk has finished with four shots in three of his last four against Vegas and has covered this 3.5 line in 65% of home games on the year.

If Tkachuk does indeed rip more shots, that only helps the cause, which sounds obvious. When Tkachuk has tallied 4+ attempts on home ice this year, he's finished with 4+ shots at a 77% rate. Should he find 6+ attempts, that hit-rate jumps to 89%.

Shoot the puck!

Sam Bennett over 3.5 SOG (+100 DK)

Sam Bennett is leading Florida in shot attempts this series and over the past few rounds, and he deserves our trust tonight.

Over his last three home games, Bennett has piled up 26 shot attempts and 12 SOG. He's gone over 3.5 SOG in four of his last six games and is one I'm confidently projecting for 6+ attempts.

Bennett has finished with 6+ attempts 39 times this season, going over 3.5 SOG in 30 of them.

Griffin Carroll

Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders.

More must-reads: