Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vancouver Canucks: Targeting the over/under

We turn our attention to the last game of the day in the NHL, as some numbers and trends suggest it's a game worth following.

I think we can expect plenty of scoring between Tampa Bay and Vancouver this evening, and with a current over/under at 6.5 (-104 on FanDuel), let me explain why I like betting the over.

Goal-Scoring Averages

The first step for these types of bets is typically a look at how each has been scoring in their location and how many goals they're letting up.

Vancouver is red-hot, averaging 4.8 goals per game in their last five at home. While they're due for some regression based on their expected goals, the number remains above 3.0 for that metric, which is very good.

Tampa Bay has been struggling to slow down scoring when playing away from home, allowing 4.0 goals per game in their past five on the road.

On expected goals allowed, the Lightning are deservedly letting in these scores and the numbers suggest they should maintain this defensive vulnerability.

The Lightning are, of course, no slouch themselves in the scoring department, averaging 3.5 goals per game in their last five on the road. 

Vancouver has been a fine target for goals, allowing over 3 per game at home.

Power Play Favors Tampa Bay Scoring

On paper, the Canucks have the scoring edge, but it's encouraging to see the disparity between the Tampa Bay power play and the Vancouver penalty kill.

This is a top-ten unit versus one of the worst PK teams in the league. I expect Tampa to bounce-back after last night's one-goal showing to Edmonton.

Look for Nikita Kucherov, who has always been involved on the power play and feels due for a goal after a six-game drought.

Back-to-Backs Lead to Scoring in Lightning Games

One last nugget on why I like this game is a look at the back-to-backs Tampa Bay has played in this season. This will be the eighth instance of a back-to-back for the Lightning, and six of the previous seven reached 6 goals, with an average total of 7 goals scored per game.

That's enough for me, and at just 6.5 total goals, I'm betting on scoring tonight in the late game.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay-Vancouver over 6.5 goals (-104 FD)