The Cowan fit, Carlo as trade bait, and too many forwards: Leaflets

Back when I was a youngin’ in the days before the internet, I used to carry a notebook around with me along with a giant Hockey Almanac book. And whenever I needed to kill some time, I’d sit around writing up trades that were going to improve the Toronto Maple Leafs. I certainly wasn’t trading Doug Gilmour or Felix Potvin but would usually end up with a page of six or seven trades that would make the Leafs better around them.

Most years six or seven trades seems pretty excessive, but a potential over/under of 6.5 for Brad Treliving deals this offseason seems reasonable. The Roy, Maccelli, Thrun, and Joshua deals put Treliving at four trades, and the Leafs are presently sitting at 16 NHL forwards (if you include Robertson and Cowan), and eight NHL defencemen. At least three bodies still need to be sent out (two if you aren’t planning on Cowan getting a shot with the Leafs immediately). Either way, unless it is a multi-player deal, there are still signs that Treliving’s phone will be busy.  It’s an interesting offseason and a once we’re a bit closer to training camp we can start debating if it has been a good one.

Here’s a few other thoughts relating to the Leafs roster situation:

Leafs made a fit for Cowan and he fills a need

The one thing that the Leafs have in abundance are veteran players. There is no real danger of Toronto undergoing another youth movement anytime soon and while I say that as a primarily negative thing, it also means that the Maple Leafs can insulate the youth they do have and with their current depth, as well there is a great opportunity to take a chance on a rookie like Easton Cowan and have him start the season in the NHL playing curated minutes in the Leafs’ bottom six forward group.

Top to bottom the Leafs now have the opportunity to put Cowan with a veteran centre, which is a real plus. Players like Roy or Laughton might not be offensive dynamos, but their play doesn’t prohibit the development of his offensive skill nor would potential additional linemates like Dakota Joshua, Bobby McMann, Matias Maccelli, etc. The Leafs also have enough two-way talent for matching against bottom six competition that rookie mistakes can be more easily absorbed while letting Cowan develop his game. The opportunity to keep him with the Leafs is there. Not only is the opportunity there but there is a need for Cowan as well.

At this point, Cowan might be one of the better potential bottom six puck moving and playmaking options to spark secondary offence on the Leafs. The bottom six will have enough capable finishers but is lacking players that will give them something to finish. Cowan fills that need.

Cowan versus a player like Kampf or Jarnkrok is also about exploring what his potential brings. Calle Jarnkrok on day one of the season might be a decent two-way player capable of putting up 20-30 points and killing some penalties but he’s still going to be that at the end of the season as well. Cowan might be slow out of the gate, but as he gets his reps and approaches 50 games or so the Leafs might find that the player who started at a 10-15 point pace at the beginning of the year has developed into a 40-50 point pace guy who doesn’t require sheltering and is capable of filling some special team roles as well.

The argument shouldn’t be that Cowan gets a spot no matter what, but while the longstanding belief for opening night rosters has been “tie goes to the veteran”, it seems like the better outlook for the Leafs might be that the tie goes to the rookie.

Brandon Carlo might not be long for the Leafs

Brandon Carlo is in the unfortunate situation of being the easiest to trade Leafs defenceman of the group. The growing sentiment might be the organization wants to part ways with Morgan Rielly and honestly, there is a case to made for that change, but his full no movement clause makes that difficult.

I’d argue that if the Leafs are actively trying to ship out a defenceman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the way to go, but if the intention is to bring back a meaningful return for the player departing, I guess you can scrap my idea.

That leaves Carlo, who is on a reasonable $3.485M AAV cap hit for the next two seasons and only has an 8-team no trade list. Throw in that fact that there is likely a market for him and that’s why we are hearing about him.

Carlo is not someone the Leafs should be in a hurry to discard. Give him a training camp with the Leafs and he’ll be far more effective than he was for Toronto late last season and in the playoffs. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to explore what he can do away from Morgan Rielly as well.

Carlo departing would hinge on one of two things. The first being that if the Leafs were attempting to make a trade for a top six forward, Carlo is a potential trade chip for that. The second being that if the Leafs are looking to add a puck mover to their blueline, he might be the guy dealt to make space for them.

Carlo is one of the few Leafs defencemen on the right side of 30 and maybe that needs to factor into their intentions a little. On the other side of the coin, players with Carlo’s skill set are readily available every NHL trade deadline and if the Leafs move on from him and regret it, they can correct their mistake at a later date.

Who’s left and who’s leaving?

Carlo might be the odd man out on the blueline, but the forward situation is a lot murkier, especially if Easton Cowan is in the mix.

Let’s start with the premise that Michael Pezzetta is unlikely to hold a spot in the Leafs lineup but he is exactly the type of player that Brad Treliving and Craig Berube think they need as a 13th forward option. As easy as it would be to say Pezzetta and Cowan are Marlies and we’re talking about the Leafs having 14 forwards and 8 defencemen, and really only one player having to go, it’s probably not that simple. It might be, but the Leafs are likely looking at moving out at least two.

Calle Jarnkrok and David Kampf are the names that are most frequently touted as departing but the reality is that teams aren’t lining up for them and the Leafs might be better off dealing serviceable players for better returns and embracing what Jarnkrok and Kampf can still provide in a depth capacity.

Nick Robertson constantly seems to be on the verge of being traded but he too is still here. When you look at the Leafs roster, it is difficult to envision a spot on the lineup card that makes sense for him, but similar to how the Leafs should make an effort to accommodate Easton Cowan, there might be a place for a north-south skater with an aggressive offensive zone attack. That said, other teams want that too and unlike his brother, Nick isn’t 6-foot-3 which seems to be more of a prerequisite for the Leafs now.

Brad Treliving has spent the summer (and trade deadline for that matter) finding guys who do less for $3M than what Bobby McMann does for $1.35M. It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that McMann still looks like the better alternative to Scott Laughton, Nicolas Roy, Matias Maccelli, and Dakota Joshua, but it’s probably also worth appreciating that will create some value for McMann in a league that doesn’t have many 20-goal scorer options on the market, especially at that price.

McMann is also in the last year of his deal and will likely be making more than $1.35M in 2026-27. He was not a favourite of Craig Berube and didn’t score in his final 11 regular season games nor did he score in 13 playoff games. If Toronto can cash out on McMann, it might not be a bad thing and given that 16 of his 20 goals came against Metro Division (8) or Pacific Division (8) opponents, perhaps teams on one of those divisions will see value in an affordable scoring option (he has future Oiler written all over him.)

Domi shouldn’t be exempt from consideration when considering potential moves at the forward position, but it does seem hard to envision it happening unless a further upgrade is coming to the Leafs’ top six forward group. After an underwhelming 2024-25, Domi improved in the playoffs, and perhaps the best thing for him and the Leafs is to see what he can do in what should be a year spent entirely on the wing.

Assuming nothing happens and this is the Leafs group heading into 2025-26, waivers and demotions to the AHL for some long time NHLers might be necessary. Kampf is certainly a possibility there and Jarnkrok may be as well, but the most likely option is that there is still one more Leafs trade coming.