The Edmonton Oilers need Darnell Nurse to step up

When Nurse is on the bench, the Oilers significantly control play. In the past three postseasons combined, they have held a 59 percent goal share in these minutes, out-scoring opponents at a fantastic ratio of 71-to-50. A large part of that has been due to Evan Bouchard, who may have some deficiencies in his own end, but his net results rank amongst the best in the league. Note that the Bouchard pair has also spent the most amount of time against the opposition’s best players.

However, the Oilers’ goal share sees a whopping 20 percent decrease when Nurse steps on the ice. That’s a swing of 39 goals in 45 playoff games. Considering how small the margin for error is in the postseason, this is quite concerning.

It’s been at its worst in the current playoffs thus far. With Nurse, the Oilers are being out-scored 7-to-13, whereas without him, they out-score opponents 18-to-8. That’s a staggering 34 percent decrease in goal share.

Some may attempt to argue that these numbers may be misleading, as a significant chunk of the non-Nurse minutes come with Bouchard on-ice with Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl, so perhaps it is somewhat unfair to Nurse to compare his results to the team without him. However, even when Nurse has played next to McDavid, the team holds a brutal 39 percent goal differential. With Draisaitl on-ice, Nurse holds a 38 percent goal differential. Even with both McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice, Nurse has still managed to be out-scored.

At this point, these are not random results. They aren’t just merely caused by quality of teammates, quality of competition, or any other external factor out of Nurse’s control. This is a genuine trend where the team has significantly struggled with Nurse on-ice, which has lasted over three separate and consecutive postseasons, and it has been considerably detrimental to Edmonton’s chances of success.

When Nurse’s underlying playoff metrics have been brought up in previous years, many have claimed that they are simply due to the lack of a proper defensive partner, as Nurse primarily played with Cody Ceci in the 2023 and 2024 playoffs. Though I would counter-argue that a defenceman of his cap-hit should be successful regardless of who he plays with, I can at least understand the rationale. Indeed, Nurse did not have a true top-four defensive partner in prior postseasons, and this has likely played a role in his results.

But, there is just no excuse this time around. With Mattias Ekholm out due to injury, Nurse has played significant time next to a top-pairing defender in Evan Bouchard, and somehow, Nurse’s net goal differential has been even worse in these playoffs.

Nurse and Bouchard’s results with and without each other are quite revealing.

Together, the Nurse – Bouchard pair does possess a strong 58 percent expected goal differential – meaning they significantly control the shots and scoring chances – but they have been out-scored 5-to-8. Meanwhile, away from Nurse, Bouchard has absolutely thrived in terms of both actual and expected goal share, whereas the exact opposite is true for Nurse. At this point, it has been quite evident that Nurse has been a major drag on Bouchard, and it is well past the time to split them apart as a pairing.

Now, in regards to the team’s overall defensive results, the most amount of focus has been on the topic of goaltending this postseason. This is obvious given the immense struggles of Stuart Skinner. But, I would also consider the impact of Nurse on Edmonton’s goal suppression rates in this discussion.

Whether it’s goals, shots, or scoring chances, the Oilers are significantly better defensively without Nurse on-ice in the playoffs, to the point that Nurse has seemed to have a significant effect on Edmonton’s save percentage.

Without Nurse, Edmonton’s goaltending is actually quite fine. The net SV% is 0.911, and both Skinner and Pickard have even allowed slightly fewer goals than expected.

But the big chunk of Edmonton’s goaltending issues in the playoffs have occurred with Nurse on-ice, as the Oilers possess an abysmal 0.880 SV% with Nurse, allowing an astounding 3.7 goals against per hour.

A large part of this may be caused by Nurse’s poor rush defence. One of the most critical flaws of Nurse’s game is his inadequate gap control at the blueline, which often leads to more zone entries against and thus more rush chances, which are the biggest weakness of Skinner’s game due to his lacklustre lateral movement. Of course, that isn’t meant to take the blame away from Skinner and put everything on Nurse alone, but at this point, it’s difficult to deny that his style of play hasn’t exacerbated the team’s goaltending issue.

All things considered, there’s simply no other way to say it; Darnell Nurse has to step up.

From a deployment perspective, it may be a wise idea to simply limit his minutes. Perhaps the Oilers can deploy Brett Kulak next to Bouchard, a pairing with significantly better results than Nurse – Bouchard, while keeping Jake Walman and John Klingberg as the second-pair, allowing them to somewhat shelter Nurse on the third pair. This should limit his time against the opposition’s best rush attackers, which could end up having a genuine impact on the team’s save percentage and goal suppression rates.

But regardless of how the pairs are deployed, the team simply needs Nurse to be better one way or the other, particularly in the absence of Mattias Ekholm.

Luckily, all things considered, the Oilers are currently in a suitable spot. They’re up 2-1 in their current second-round series against the Golden Knights, and with a victory tonight at home, they have a chance to finish it in Vegas on Wednesday night.

However, if the Oilers do want to close out the series and eventually go all the way to win the Stanley Cup, they will need Darnell Nurse to be substantially better than he has been.