The Evolution of Maxence Guénette

In June of 2019, Maxence Guénette was sitting at home on the second day of the NHL Entry Draft watching, waiting and hoping. Through six full rounds of selections, the product of Saint-Foy had yet to hear his name.  However, with the 187th selection, the Ottawa Senators took a flyer on the right shot rearguard.

When you hear your name called at the NHL Draft, it’s a dream come true. It doesn’t matter when it happens. That being said, the expectations that a defender selected in the seventh round ends up having an impact on an NHL organization are pretty low — next to nothing, realistically.

For Guénette, though, there may be a different narrative here. Generally, even when a player produces at a high level in junior, they see their statistical contributions dip as they progress into their professional career. Look no further than the best in the world for validation here. Connor McDavid posted a 1.72 pts/GP in the OHL. In the NHL, he produces at a 1.50 rate. Obviously, fantastic. But as you get to the top league, there’s no doubt that your ability to dominate lessens.

But sometimes, you have a late bloomer. Guénette appears to be one of them. After posting 0.47 pts/GP in the QMJHL, Guénette has a 0.54 pts/GP to his name with the Belleville Senators. Somehow, some way, Guénette has got better, even as his competition has become more difficult. What’s even more interesting is that Guénette’s primary points per game this season (0.45) almost matches his total points per game as a defender in the QMJHL. So, not only has Guénette’s ability to produce points improved, he’s doing so as the primary contributor to those points. His assists are the ones that lead right to the goal, rather than piling up secondary passes that happen to lead to a goal.

The other aspect of production to look at with a player is their development. For Guénette, year over year, he’s seen great strides in his primary points per game (P1/GP). He kicked off his career with 0.25 P1/GP as a rookie and followed that up with a breakout season as a sophomore, which saw this metric rise to 0.31. Through 22 games this year, he’s seen another increase to 0.45.

It’s no surprise that Guénette was a standout at camp with Ottawa, initially earning a spot on the roster before being returned to Belleville.

Offensively, Guénette has the toolkit of an NHL blueliner — not only by putting points on the board, but also through his above average transition play where he’s regularly helping his team move out of its own zone and into attack mode. Where Guénette will need to see continued growth is in the aspects that make you a successful third pairing defender in the eyes of an NHL coach. It’s unlikely, barring injury, that he’ll be afforded the opportunity to earn a spot in the top four right away.

Fortunately, at 6’3″, Guénette has the frame to grow into a player capable of boxing out in front of the net and winning battles in the corners. But, he’ll need to learn to adapt this part of his game if he wants to take his already impressive career trajectory to the level where he’s an every day player in the NHL.