The Edmonton Oilers will enter the third round of the playoffs with more momentum than they have ever had this season. More than a few people considered the Los Angeles Kings to be the favourites, but Edmonton disposed of them in six quick games. Despite that, no one but Edmonton’s most die hard fans considered the Oilers to be the favourite against the Vegas Golden Knights. As deep and talented as they are, Edmonton said, “Thanks for stopping by” and showed Vegas the door in five tidy games.
The Oilers were the first to advance to the Western Conference Final and will face an extremely difficult opponent in the Dallas Stars. Dallas’ win last night sets up a rematch from last year’s conference final which Edmonton won in six games.
Dallas poses a similar problem to Vegas, namely, incredible depth. Before the start of these playoffs I would have said that a deep offensive team would be Edmonton’s Achilles heel, since on paper, Edmonton just doesn’t have the same depth. When they hit the ice though, the Oilers have proved that they are perfectly able to overcome that perceived shortcoming.
The question is, what are the optimal lines for the Oilers facing such deep team as Dallas?
Without getting into the conversation of goalies too much, and while acknowledging the outstanding performances the Oilers have got from their netminders the last few games, Edmonton has always been a team that travels on it’s offence. Certainly the hope is that the quality goalie starts will continue but it would be too much to expect continued shutouts against teams like Dallas and Winnipeg.
Edmonton is the second highest scoring team to play in the playoffs and highest still standing, they also get scored on third most among teams still alive. So overpowering offence is probably the best policy right now.
It’s my opinion that, considering the unpredictable, fast paced, and ever-changing nature of hockey, it’s a mistake for a team to focus too much on defence. No matter how good your team’s defence is, something will go wrong and you will get scored on. Defence is about control and you just can’t exercise that much control in a game like hockey.
The problem with taking stats from playoffs is that there isn’t a large sample size. So looking back into the regular season shows, to no one’s surprise, that the Zach Hyman-Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid line was the most successful line the Oilers fielded and one of the best in the league. The Viktor Arvidsson-Draisaitl-Vasily Podkolzin line was also solid. After that though the lines start to get pretty questionable, highlighting the Oiler’s depth problem.
However things have changed since then and something new and impressive has emerged in the playoffs. Looking at the playoff stats shows something incredibly rare. The four best lines in goals for% over 25 minutes played have no overlap with each other, I can promise you that this is essentially unheard of.
Those lines are:
Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing | GF% | Line TOI |
McDavid | Draisaitl | Perry | 66.7% | 73.2 |
Hyman | Kane | Nugent-Hopkins | 75% | 61.6 |
Arvidsson | Janmark | Podkolzin | 71.4% | 37.4 |
Frederic | Henrique | Brown | 75% | 57.4 |
If I’m Kris Knoblauch, this is what I’m riding with. Granted this isn’t based on much data, but if you’ve got something working this well you just stay with it. This is a lineup that is performing completely opposite to how the team played in the regular season. That is to say that the second, third, and fourth lines are all performing well—these stats show a deep team.
Arvidsson hasn’t played the last two games, having been replaced by Kasperi Kapanen. I don’t think this is likely to change since Kapanen has played well and scored the OT goal to send Edmonton to the third round. It’s easy to put Podkolzin on the left wing and Kapanen on the right wing in that line, but I think Arvidsson should draw back into the lineup at some point.
This lineup seems to solve a problem that every coach in the McDavid era has faced: do you stack the first line with McDavid and Draisaitl, or attempt for a one-two punch with each centring their own line? It’s my opinion that if you can stack the first line, you should. It forces the other coach to give even more attention to line matching and may free up weaker lines for the rest of the Oilers lineup to play against.
While I do believe that the Oilers are an offence-first team and that a hockey team in general should focus more on offence than defence, you obviously can’t just ignore defensive play. Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston in Dallas all require special attention, and both teams have great supporting casts.
When looking at the rostered Oilers players ranked by on-ice GA/60 the best forwards are Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark, Adam Henrique, and Draisaitl. When looking at the lines ranked by fewest GA/60 the most common names to appear at the top are Brown, Janmark, Skinner, and Henrique.
These impressive numbers may very well be the result of having played against the bottom-six more often than not, but it doesn’t change the fact that they’re are getting the best of them, and that’s encouraging.
Jeff Skinner has fallen out of favour and hasn’t played since the start of playoffs but the lineup above boasts a solid defensive line with two of the Oilers better defensive forwards: Henrique and Brown. If the first two lines can provide steady offence, Edmonton has a good chance at returning to the Stanley Cup Final.
All said and done this is the most balanced this team can be while still packing a huge punch with the first line.
The series against Dallas will start Wednesday, May 21.
stats from NHL.com, naturalstatrick.com, and moneypuck.com
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