The New York Islander Mathew Barzal’s Point Projection for the 2025-26 Season

Ever since Mathew Barzal was drafted by the New York Islanders in the first round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, he has been one of their key contributors. That is, along with being one of the more skilled players in the league. He is also someone who is relied upon so heavily by his team. Fast forward to 2025, and not much has changed. After a disappointing campaign for both he and his team, from both perspectives, he will look to have a bounce back year. If the Islanders want any chance of the playoffs, they will need the former 16th overall pick to show up in a big way this season.

Mathew Barzal 2025-26 Point Projection Starting by Reviewing Last Year

To fully project what Barzal will do this season, we need to look at last season to provide context first. He is coming off an injury-plagued season. On February 1, he blocked a shot off his knee, which required surgery on his kneecap, effectively ending his 2024-25 season. What made this even more frustrating is that he had already missed 21 games earlier in the year because of an upper-body injury. In total, he was limited to just 30 games, producing 20 points (six goals, 14 assists) in those appearances. Ultimately, the Islanders fell nine points short of a Eastern Conference playoff spot. Had Barzal been healthy the whole time, you’d have to think things would’ve been different.

Barzal’s name has been thrown around in trade rumours this offseason. While those reports were shut down, whispers continued. With the new general manager, Mathieu Darche, taking the reins, this leads to a big season for Barzal. He will try to prove himself to his new boss.

Going Back to His Roots

With a new season on the horizon and new players coming in. Head coach Patrick Roy has stated that Barzal will move back to his natural position of centre. This is the position he played for years when he first came up for the Islanders. This was until the team acquired Bo Horvat to play top-line centre. That move pushed Barzal to the wing, so the two could play on a line together. The move down to the second line should help both the player and the team succeed.

Being on the second line will still have Barzal seeing heavy minutes in a top-six role. However, in this role, he likely won’t draw the matchup of the opposition’s top defensive pair. This should help find more goal-scoring chances. His linemates are projected to be veteran Anders Lee, with whom Barzal is familiar. Also, they will team up with KHL newcomer Maxim Shabanov. These two fit Barzal’s game well. Lee, the power forward, will get in on the forecheck and fight to retrieve the puck. He will also go to the dirty areas in front of the net, redirect shots, pick up rebounds and try to get dirty goals. Shabanov is a skilled winger who can absolutely fly and has a nice set of hands. His game has already received high praise out of Islanders training camp. The style he plays is similar to Barzal’s, making for a great fit on his line.

Power-Play Upside

Something that could help Barzal reach his point ceiling this season is an improved power play. This was a unit that ranked 31st in the league last year. Simply put, that kind of production, or lack thereof, will not cut it. In years past, like 2023-24, when Barzal had an 80-point season, he added 25 extra points just from power-play production alone. Barzal will remain on the top power play unit coming into this year. This group will welcome Jonathan Drouin, a proven goal scorer who figures to slot into that first unit with Barzal and Horvat. This will make for a strong combination, along with new assistant coaches Ray Bennett and Bob Boughner. The two were handpicked by Patrick Roy. The hope is that the new tactics will help improve the special teams under these two.

Barzal’s Point Floor and Ceiling

To determine this year’s point total, it will help to look at the previous years. 2024-25 was already discussed and was hampered due to injury.

2023-24: GP: 80, PTS: 80 (23 goals, 57 assists)

2022-23: GP: 58, PTS: 51 (14 goals, 37 assists)

2021-22: GP: 73, PTS: 59 (15 goals, 44 assists)

When Barzal can stay on the ice, he is nearly a point-per-game player. We will set his floor at 55-60 points, even if the power play doesn’t improve, he normally hits that mark every season. The more likely outcome is for him to finish around 65-75 points, that is, if he stays healthy all year. His ceiling could be 80-90+ points, meaning he could break his career high of 85 points. If everything goes according to plan, including him being able to stay on the ice.

Final Thoughts and Projection

We think Barzal will finish this season at 78 points, with 22 goals and 56 assists. The move to the second-line centre role should benefit him greatly. The open ice and less focus on his line should help him get back to playing like we know he can. That kind of production should see him selected for his fourth All-Star Game. It would be this kind of season that would silence those trade rumours for good. His team will need him to have that kind of season, or better, if they want to make the playoffs in a tough division and conference.