The Ottawa Senator Fabian Zetterlund’s 2025-26 Point Total Projection

One of the big Ottawa Senator players to do a point projection for, a relative newcomer, is Fabian Zetterlund. We’ve been covering a bunch of the Sens key players’ point projections, and today we take a look at a player with high variability in his estimated point total. We will add quick, that Ridly Greig, also fit that bill of big unknown. In any case, let’s get to it and provide some evidence of why we can anticipate uncertainty in Zetterlund’s projection.

Point Projection for Fabian Zetterlund in 2025-26

The biggest factor making Zetterlund’s point projection difficult, is studying his time with Ottawa. In 20 games for Ottawa last year to end the 2024-25 regular season, he had two goals and three assists. Whoopie-dee-doo, right? What’s all the hype. However, when he started with Ottawa, it was down on the fourth line. He was under ten minutes for a few games at the start. No wonder he went pointless in his first eight contests with Ottawa. In contrast, as he gained more trust from his coach, he eventually found himself on the top line with Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle.

Now, coming into 2025-26, there is some debate on how the lines will arrange themselves in Ottawa. That aforementioned line combo being suggested as the Sens go-to top line, for instance. However, Zetterlund needn’t be discouraged if he finds himself lower in the lineup. His fast, and physical game, along with the scoring ability, allow him to play up-and-down the lineup. Of course, getting too caught up in exact line combinations isn’t really productive. Especially with the top-nine depth the Sens forward group possesses, they could give opposition defences plenty of different looks, even in the same game.

Therefore, when it comes to Zetterlund, we want to focus in on his past two seasons. In that way, we can form a two-year moving average type of model for his predicted outcome. Even with the dip in ice time and overall production last year, due to his slow start with Ottawa, overall his numbers were still on par with 2023-24.

Let’s Break It All Down, Statistically Speaking

We are going to say that he will be boosted by top six and power play ice time. So, could Zetterlund 25-30 goals and assists? Quite possibly. He’s fast, has good hands and a decent shot, and not afraid of throwing his weight around. This allows him to be effective with skilled players, and open up room for them and him.

One other point we would like to add, is on our final point projections. This goes for most players. We tend to go on the high end, or an over-estimate. The main reason is injuries and ice time. We let you use your smart fantasy brains to allow for that factor, if you will be so gracious as to oblige us. There’s another idea, that starts to impact guys like Zetterlund’s bottom line. That is that there is only so many goals to go around. So, he will need to take advantage of his offensive zone opportunity.

Time for Our Prediction

As tempting as it is, to say Zetterlund sticks it out with Stutzle and Tkachuk, plays all the top power play minutes, and tops 75 points. Conversely, we don’t quite see that happening. Even though it is possible, we see his assist total more aligned with his previous two seasons. Yes, even tough they were in San Jose.

He tends to be a bit more of a scorer, than a passer. He’s averaged 22 goals and 21 assists the last two years. If we are predicting his goals up, we don’t quite think the assists will follow. We are saying he lands at around 22-27 assists. Now, we will disclaimer, his point total, driven mostly by assists, could be a lot higher if he plays primarily with Stutzle and Tkachuk. Moreover, we do see him as a role player, and playing with many different combinations throughout the campaign. Also, it is likely he doesn’t always get top power play minutes, as there’s only so much of the top unit time to go around. Therefore, we have him around 47-57 points.