These RFAs Will Fetch Surprising Contracts This Summer

The UFA class this summer is looking rather sparse at this point, which will put pressure on teams to lock up their restricted free agents, particularly if they are eligible to sign an offer sheet. While Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson will get much of the chatter among the RFA class, there are a handful of lesser-known players who are on the cusp of signing eye-popping contracts over the next few months. These candidates are largely under the radar for the more casual fan, but they have put in the work to secure a healthy payday this summer. The rising salary cap, coupled with a lack of UFAs, is going to give arbitration-eligible RFAs unprecedented leverage, and it will be on full display this summer.

The Vegas Golden Knights are on a heater in the postseason, thanks to their stars, including Mitch Marner. However, one lesser-known contributor is forward Pavel Dorofeyev, who is finishing a season in which he made just $1.835MM. The 25-year-old just had a career year, posting 37 goals and 27 assists in 82 games, after tallying 52 points in 82 games a year ago. Dorofeyev is a potential offer sheet candidate, given the Golden Knights’ precarious cap position this offseason, his age, and his recent run of success. An offer of $9.5MM per season isn’t out of the question for Dorofeyev, and if Vegas didn’t match, they would receive a first, second, and third-round draft pick.

Would a team be willing to pay that much for Dorofeyev’s services? It’s entirely possible, given the thin free-agent market and the sheer number of teams sitting on absurd amounts of cap space for the first time in years. Couple those factors with GMs in several markets fighting to keep their jobs, and you have a recipe for some wild RFA contracts. But a $9.5MM AAV for Dorofeyev isn’t out of the question, and projections from AFP Analytics have come in around $9MM annually on a long-term deal. Goal scorers almost always get paid (see Brock Boeser), and with Dorofeyev entering his prime, someone somewhere will pay handsomely if Vegas can’t or won’t.

Another forward who is sure to get paid this summer is Connor McMichael of the Washington Capitals. The 25-year-old was a late first-round pick (25th overall) in 2019 and took his time developing, but has become a bona fide middle-six forward over the last two years after establishing himself as a full-time NHLer at 23. McMichael took a step back offensively this season, dropping from 57 points to 46, with much of the decline coming from a nearly five-percentage-point drop in shooting percentage. AFP has McMichael receiving just shy of $6.5MM on a six-year deal if he signs long term, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility given his offensive production over the last two years. McMichael might have more to give as he continues to approach his prime, which could add an additional bit of intrigue to a contract negotiation that could come with some sticker shock when it concludes.

Winnipeg Jets forward Cole Perfetti took a major step back this season in offensive production, dropping from 50 points to just 32, although his PPG drop wasn’t as dramatic given the time he missed. Perfetti was an obvious long-term extension candidate a year ago, but after this year’s setback, he could be looking at a bridge deal of one year, in the $4MM to $4.5MM range. However, given his age (24) and talent, it would not be shocking to see him signed long-term if the Jets (or another team) feel they could buy low and get him at a discount before he breaks out. AFP Analytics has him tabbed for a long-term AAV of $6.395MM, a number that would send shockwaves around the NHL. However, that price tag is the cost of buying upside, and teams have done it before and had it work, making it a real possibility.

Next, we head to Florida to examine the case of Panthers forward Mackie Samoskevich, who is set to join a long list of Florida players who have cashed in on their success over the last few seasons. Coming off his second full NHL season, the 23-year-old isn’t going to get big money long term, but he will likely receive a bridge deal worth around $3MM per season, which should get some people’s attention. Last summer, Samoskevich took a one-year deal at the league minimum ($775K), but this summer will be a very different story. The Panthers have some business to attend to in the crease, as both their goalies are UFAs, but they do have a decent amount of cap space, so it’s unlikely that Samoskevich is moved out.

One look at Braden Schneider’s offensive stats and the casual observer might not believe he is due for a big payday, but he is. It’s typical for defensive defensemen are often overlooked as they don’t appear on the scoresheet or draw headlines in the media. But NHL teams pay a premium for defenders who can take on tough defensive assignments against their opponents’ top players, and that’s what the New York Rangers rearguard is capable of. Whether Schneider can actually do that is up for healthy debate, as it pits the analytics crew against the eye-test crowd. But debate or not, the 24-year-old is getting paid this summer. AFP Analytics has him at a $4MM AAV on a short-term deal and $6MM if he goes long term, both numbers that will have some folks mouthing the word, “Wow.”

Lastly, we come to Ottawa Senators defenseman Jordan Spence, who is also due a large payday that will surely surprise some people. Spence quietly had a terrific first season in Ottawa and is projected by AFP Analytics to receive either a one-year deal worth just over $3MM or a longer-term deal for nearly $5MM. That number is eye-popping, but given the rising cap, Spence’s untapped potential, and his previous work, $5MM isn’t outrageous, even though it is surprising. Spence’s contract could be one that wakes fans up to the new economic reality in the NHL, where defenders who can play the minutes he can will be receiving north of $5MM fairly regularly. There are some unique circumstances with Spence. He is a right-handed offensive defenseman who can play up and down the defensive unit. He drives play offensively and has sparkling underlying numbers.

This list isn’t exhaustive, as there are a handful of other players who will receive eye-popping extensions as RFAs, including the likes of Jet Greaves and Peyton Krebs. In terms of projecting things out, these seem to be the most obvious candidates to get big raises this offseason, but there are always surprises, and given the plethora of teams with money this offseason, some wild numbers will surely be thrown around.