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Vancouver Canucks center Elias Lindholm May 16, 2024; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Lindholm (23) during a stop in play against the Edmonton Oilers during the first period in game five of the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

UFA Projections: How much money did Canucks’ Elias Lindholm cost himself this year?

Originally posted on Daily Faceoff | By Frank Seravalli | Last updated 5/23/24

One of the toughest aspects of the free agent market to project has always been: How much money are these players earning or costing themselves with their play over the course of a season? We can see increases in point production or decreases in play quality with our eyes, but it isn’t always easy to quantify that in dollars. Sometimes we’re only left to grapple with reported offers that leak out into the public sphere.

We have a better idea now on changes in the marketplace thanks to @AFPAnalytics. This week, AFP Analytics released their final contract projections for pending free agents. When compared with their January midseason projections, we can more accurately quantify changes in a player’s equity.

Maybe equity is the best term for it. Because like a property’s value, it can be assessed based on conditions, but often the sale (or signing) will come in higher or lower depending on a number of variables, including position (or location), scarcity, etc.

Here are three pending UFAs who drastically increased their value this season:

Positive Equity

Player	Team	Jan. Projection	May Projection	Net Change
Jake Guentzel	CAR	6 years x $7.94 m	7 years x $9.28 m	$17.3 million
Sean Monahan	WPG	3 years x $2.87 m	4 years x $5.3 m	$12.5 million
Sam Reinhart	FLA	8 years x $10.25 m	8 years x $11.28 m	$8.25 million

Projection Source: @AFPAnalytics

Some of those names will not be a surprise, including Reinhart coming off a 57-goal season. Monahan went for a late first-round pick before the trade deadline to Winnipeg. Guentzel’s production increased in Carolina. Defensemen Nikita Zadorov, Matt Roy and Jalen Chatfield all significantly increased their value to the market, as indicated in our latest free agent ranking below.

But there are some players who took a real hit to the wallet over the last eight months. None bigger than Vancouver Canucks center Elias Lindholm, whose production dipped from a career-high of 42 goals and 82 points two seasons ago, down to 15 goals and 44 points this season.

Negative Equity

Player	Team	Jan. Projection	May Projection	Net Change
Elias Lindholm	VAN	7 years x $8.04 m	5 years x $6.75 m	($22.4 million)
Brandon Montour	FLA	7 years x $8.72 m	6 years x $7.7 m	($14.8 million)
Brett Pesce	CAR	6 years x $6.73 m	5 years x $6.2 m	($9.4 million)

Projection Source: @AFPAnalytics

The wild part about Lindholm’s number is that AFP Analytics’ projection is actually probably a little low. The Calgary Flames were believed to be offering an eight-year deal north of $8 million, likely totaling around $68 million. His current projection, around $34 million, has cut that offer in half. Yes, Lindholm may have lost upwards of $30-plus million between September and now. He was solid for the Canucks in the playoffs and made a ton of subtle, important plays – but his production has not rebounded to the level he was originally asking, which was believed to be around $9 million per year.

If that’s the case, two things are true: One, the Flames dodged a major bullet. And two, the idea of equity is really just that, an idea. It only truly counts when it is realized, or when the market decides what someone is willing to pay. And there’s a lot to be sorted out between now and when free agency opens on July 1.

With that, here is our latest top free agents ranking, which has expanded to 75 names:

Daily Faceoff’s Top 75 Pending Free Agents

Rank	Player	Pos	Age	Team	Cap Hit	GP	G	PTS	AFP Projection
1	Sam Reinhart	RW	29	FLA	$6.5M	82	57	94	8 x $11.3M
2	Jake Guentzel	LW	30	CAR	$6M	67	30	77	7 x $9.25M
3	Steven Stamkos	LW/C	34	TBL	$8.5M	79	40	81	3 x $6.13M
4	Brady Skjei	LD	30	CAR	$5.25M	80	13	47	5 x $7.5M
5	Brandon Montour	RD	30	FLA	$3.5M	66	8	33	6 x $7.7M
6	Jonathan Marchessault	RW	34	VGK	$5M	82	42	69	3 x $6.25M
7	Elias Lindholm	C/RW	30	VAN	$4.85M	75	15	44	5 x $6.75M
8	Chandler Stephenson	C	30	VGK	$2.75M	75	16	51	5 x $5.6M
9	Joe Pavelski	RW	40	DAL	$5.5M	82	27	67	1 x $3.5M
10	Patrick Kane	RW	36	DET	$2.75M	50	20	47	2 x $6.3M
11	Matt Roy	RD	29	LAK	$3.15M	81	5	25	5 x $5.8M
12	Nikita Zadorov	LD	29	VAN	$3.75M	75	6	20	5 x $5.3M
13	Matt Duchene	C/RW	33	DAL	$3M	80	25	65	3 x $4.8M
14	Sean Walker	RD	30	COL	$2.65M	81	10	29	3 x $4.65M
15	Brett Pesce	RD	30	CAR	$4.03M	70	3	13	5 x $6.25M
16	Teuvo Teravainen	LW	30	CAR	$5.4M	76	25	53	4 x $5.2M
17	Tyler Bertuzzi	LW	29	TOR	$5.5M	80	21	43	4 x $5.25M
18	Tyler Toffoli	RW	32	WPG	$4.25M	79	33	55	4 x $6M
19	Jake DeBrusk	LW	28	BOS	$4M	80	19	40	5 x $5.8M
20	Viktor Arvidsson	RW	31	LAK	$4.25M	18	6	15	3 x $4.75M
21	Jonathan Drouin	LW	29	COL	$825K	79	19	56	4 x $5M
22	Jalen Chatfield	RD	28	CAR	$763K	72	8	22	4 x $3.65M
23	Sean Monahan	C	30	WPG	$2M	83	26	59	4 x $5.3M
24	Max Domi	RW	29	TOR	$3M	80	9	47	2 x $3.5M
25	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	LD	33	FLA	$2.25M	80	9	32	3 x $4.1M
26	Chris Tanev	RD	35	DAL	$4.5M	75	2	19	3 x $4.7M
27	Dakota Joshua	LW	28	VAN	$825K	63	18	32	4 x $3.25M
28	Vladimir Tarasenko	RW	33	FLA	$5M	76	23	55	2 x $4.15M
29	Alexandre Carrier	RD	30	NSH	$2.5M	73	4	20	3 x $4M
30	Shayne Gostisbehere	LD	31	DET	$4.13M	81	10	56	3 x $5M
31	Tyler Myers	RD	34	VAN	$6M	77	5	29	2 x $3.1M
32	Alex Wennberg	C	30	NYR	$4.5M	79	10	30	4 x $3.85M
33	Anthony Duclair	LW	29	TBL	$3M	73	24	42	3 x $4.3M
34	Yakov Trenin	LW/C	28	COL	$1.7M	76	12	17	3 x $2.55M
35	Alex Nedeljkovic	G	29	PIT	$1.5M	38	2.96	.902	2 x $2.3M
36	David Perron	RW	36	DET	$4.75M	76	17	47	2 x $3M
37	Warren Foegele	LW	28	EDM	$2.75M	82	20	41	3 x $3.9M
38	Adam Henrique	C	34	EDM	$5.83M	82	24	51	3 x $4.3M
39	Anthony Mantha	LW	29	VGK	$5.7M	74	23	44	3 x $4.7M
40	Brenden Dillon	LD	34	WPG	$3.9M	77	8	20	2 x $2.9M
41	Jason Zucker	LW	32	NSH	$5.3M	69	14	32	2 x $3.7M
42	Matt Dumba	RD	30	TBL	$3.9M	76	4	12	3 x $3M
43	Dylan DeMelo	RD	31	WPG	$3M	82	3	31	4 x $5.3M
44	Matt Grzelcyk	LD	31	BOS	$3.7M	63	2	11	3 x $3.2M
45	Stefan Noesen	RW	31	CAR	$763K	81	14	37	3 x $3.2M
46	Michael Amadio	RW	28	VGK	$763K	73	14	27	3 x $3.1M
47	Erik Gustafsson	LD	32	NYR	$825K	76	6	31	3 x $3.85M
48	Daniel Sprong	RW	27	DET	$2M	76	18	43	3 x $4M
49	Kaapo Kahkonen	G	28	NJD	$2.75M	37	3.64	.898	2 x $2M
50	Teddy Blueger	C	30	VAN	$1.9M	68	6	28	2 x $2.1M
51	Jordan Martinook	LW	32	CAR	$1.8M	82	14	32	3 x $2.75M
52	Ilya Samsonov	G	27	TOR	$3.55M	40	3.13	.890	1 x $2.35M
53	T.J. Brodie	LD	34	TOR	$5M	78	1	26	2 x $3.65M
54	Vincent Desharnais	RD	28	EDM	$763K	78	1	11	1 x $1.1M
55	Jack Roslovic	RW	27	NYR	$4M	59	9	31	3 x $3M
56	Anthony Beauvillier	RW	27	NSH	$4.15M	60	5	17	1 x $900K
57	Mattias Janmark	LW	31	EDM	$1M	71	4	12	1 x $1M
58	Ian Cole	LD	35	VAN	$3M	78	2	11	1 x $2.1M
59	Tyson Barrie	RD	33	NSH	$4.5M	41	1	15	1 x $1.75M
60	James van Riemsdyk	RW	35	BOS	$1M	71	11	38	1 x $1.2M
61	Jani Haakanpaa	RD	32	DAL	$1.5M	64	2	12	1 x $1.5M
62	Alec Martinez	LD	36	VGK	$5.25M	55	4	17	1 x $1.25M
63	Cam Talbot	G	37	LAK	$2M	54	2.50	.913	1 x $1.8M
64	Tony DeAngelo	RD	28	CAR	$1.68M	31	3	11	2 x $1.75M
65	Sam Carrick	C	32	EDM	$850K	77	10	16	2 x $1.47M
66	Brandon Duhaime	LW	27	COL	$1.1M	80	5	13	3 x $1.8M
67	Tyler Johnson	RW	33	CHI	$5M	67	17	31	1 x $1.7M
68	Victor Olofsson	RW	28	BUF	$4.75M	51	7	15	1 x $1M
69	Kevin Labanc	RW	28	SJS	$4.73M	46	2	9	1 x $893K
70	Mike Hoffman	RW	34	SJS	$4.5M	66	10	23	1 x $1.15M
71	Joel Edmundson	LD	31	TOR	$3.5M	53	1	6	2 x $1.65M
72	Scott Wedgewood	G	31	DAL	$1M	32	2.85	.899	1 x $1.8M
73	Casey DeSmith	G	32	VAN	$1.8M	29	2.89	.896	1 x $1.65M
74	Oliver Kylington	LD	27	CGY	$2.5M	33	3	8	1 x $1.1M
75	Max Pacioretty	LW	35	WSH	$2M	47	4	23	1 x $1.5M