Updating the mess of the Flames’ conditional 2025 first-round draft picks

It’s finally here, gang: the 2024-25 NHL season’s trade deadline. While we’re not quite sure what will unfold for the Calgary Flames, we do know one thing: the Flames have complicated trade conditions they’ll need to untangle when it comes to their first round picks.

So as we await what moves the Flames will make before Friday’s 1 p.m. MT trade deadline, let’s try to make sense of the Flames’ first-rounders!

Three trades

There are three trades that factor in:

• The July 2022 trade that sent Matthew Tkachuk to Florida; the Flames are owed a first-rounder from the Panthers (in 2025 or 2026).
• The August 2022 trade that sent Sean Monahan to Montreal; the Canadiens are owed a first-rounder from the Flames (in 2025 or 2026).
• The June 2024 trade that sent Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey; the Flames are owed a first-rounder from the Devils (in 2025 or 2026).

Three conditions

So here’s the deal, bear in mind every “top 10” reference refers to where a pick lands after the draft lottery:

• If the Panthers’ first-round pick in 2025 is in the top 10, the Flames receive their 2026 first-round pick. If the Panthers’ first-round pick in 2025 is outside the top 10, the Flames receive their 2025 first-round pick.
• If the Devils’ first-round pick in 2025 is in the top 10, the Flames receive their 2026 first-round pick. If the Devils’ first-round pick in 2025 is outside the top 10, the Flames receive their 2025 first-round pick.
• If the Flames receive Florida’s 2025 first-rounder, then Montreal gets the earlier of Calgary and Florida’s 2025 first-rounders (if the Flames’ pick is outside the top 10) OR Florida’s 2025 first-rounder (if the Flames’ pick is in the top 10). If the Flames don’t receive Florida’s 2025 first-rounder, then Montreal gets Calgary’s 2025 first-rounder unless it’s first overall, in which case Montreal receives Calgary’s 2026 first-rounder and 2025 third-rounder. (The extra pick is for the inconvenience of waiting another year for the first-rounder).

So, what’s going to happen?

The web of conditions centre around Calgary, Florida or New Jersey’s picks landing in the top 10. So… are those likely possibilities?

Right now, the New York Islanders are the team slated to draft 10th overall – they’re 10th from the bottom in the standings – with 63 points and a .516 save percentage. The Flames have 68 points, so they would need to slide back by five points. the Devils have 72 points, and they would need to slide back nine points. The Panthers have 81 points and would need to slide back 18 points.

The Flames back-sliding is possible, but they’ve been remarkably consistent this season. The Devils will be without Jack Hughes for the rest of the season and are without Dougie Hamilton for a little while. We could see them sliding out of the playoffs, but sliding all the way down to the Islanders seems like a tall order. We’re willing to say that Florida will not have a top 10 pick, so the Flames will receive that pick.

So… here are the possibilities, in a handy matrix.

The Flames have 20 games remaining in their 2024-25 regular season schedule. They’re back in action on Saturday night when they host the Montreal Canadiens at the Saddledome.