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Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)

Weak NHL Free Agent Class Could Lead to a Crazy 2025 Offseason

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Alex Chauvancy | Last updated May 30, 2025 10:15 AM ET

There’s always tons of money dished out during NHL free agency, and this year won’t be any different. While you can expect most teams to spend plenty of cash since the salary cap ceiling is rising to $95.5 million, this may not be the year to do it. It’s a weak free-agent class, but that could make for a crazy offseason that has a ripple effect across the league.

There’s Not Much Star Talent Among UFAs

We already have our top 30 UFAs published, and that list will expand to 40 players in the next week or so. I’m not going to talk about every player we have in our top 30, so I’d encourage you to take a look at that post when you get the chance. But the gist is this is not a particularly good free-agent class.

Mitch Marner headlines the 2025 crop of UFAs. Despite the narratives around his playoff struggles, he’s averaged 30 goals and 102 points per 82 games over the last three seasons. He will be worth whatever he gets from whichever team pursues him on July 1, but there’s a dropoff after him.

John Tavares and Matt Duchene project to land AAVs just north of $7 million. They’re likely to live up to their end of the bargain, especially since those should be short-term deals. You can say the same about Nikolaj Ehlers, who could get nearly $8 million annually for seven or eight years, but then we enter potential bad contract territory.

All the talk around pending UFAs right now seems to be around Sam Bennett, with some pundits claiming he could get nearly $10 million annually. I’ll believe that when I see it, but he’s a prime candidate for the classic UFA overpay. He totaled 51 points this season, which was a career-high. Even an AAV of $7-8 million will likely turn his next contract into poison for whoever signs him, and that’s with the rising cap.

Given that the Florida Panthers acquired Seth Jones at the trade deadline, it seems like Aaron Ekblad is a good bet to hit free agency. Evolving Hockey has him signing a six-year contract at a cap hit of $7.685 million, but I can’t imagine that deal aging well for any team that signs him.

Brock Boeser deserves all the good things in the world, but his next contract could be problematic for whichever team signs him; Evolving Hockey has him signing for seven years and a cap hit north of $8 million. Those are just the top UFAs, and the overpays could get worse when you step down a tier.

The reality is that there are not many star-caliber players in the 2025 UFA class, but that’s usually when overpays occur. Plenty of teams want to improve, so they’ll pay whatever it takes to bring in some free agents, especially with the cap rising to what it is. I can imagine second-tier UFAs getting paid well more than their projections, and that could make for some horrific contracts handed out on July 1.

Weak UFA Class Could Mean More Trades & Offer Sheets

Fortunately, not every team overpays in free agency. Some have gotten smarter, and I’m sure those organizations know the UFA class poses its risks this offseason. That could make for a more active trade market and up the odds of some offer sheets occurring.

First, for trades. Daily Faceoff and The Athletic released their initial trade boards, with some interesting names on each (From ‘NHL offseason trade board: An early look at the summer’s top targets, from Kreider to Rossi to Ehlers’ – The Athletic, 5/29/2025). Among the most common were Chris Kreider, JJ Peterka and Marco Rossi. The latter two should have robust trade markets, given their age, upside, and team control. Kreider had a down year in 2024-25, but he feels like a good change-of-scenery candidate rather than a player in his mid-30s who’s declining.

Also among the possible trade candidates are Erik Karlsson, Bowen Byram, Jonathan Marchessault, Rasmus Andersson, K’Andre Miller and John Gibson. We’ll see how available these players truly are, but they’re certainly better options than most of the players in this year’s UFA pool. I’d like to think most teams know that, and that could make for an active trade market in addition to whatever free agency presents.

I also wouldn’t be shocked to see teams dumping their bad contracts to make room for more contracts (possibly more bad ones). In theory, it should be easier to dump your bad deals since teams have more money available. There should be more organizations, especially ones that need to hit the floor, that are willing to take on bad deals. It might cost you a sweetener, but that’s the price of doing business to free up cap space. We haven’t seen as much of this in recent years because of the flat cap, but that should change this summer.

As for offer sheets, don’t count on seeing 10-15 offer sheets this offseason, but there could be a few. GMs like Jeff Gorton and Tom Fitzgerald said they expect them to become more of a tool after teams saw the success the St. Louis Blues had with Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg’s offer sheets last summer.

I’d guess that Rossi and Peterka will get traded before they can field offer sheets on July 1, but they will be prime offer-sheet targets, especially Peterka. The Dallas Stars are in a cap crunch, so Mavrik Bourque could be a sneaky offer-sheet target for a team looking to bet on upside.

Meanwhile, Matthew Knies has been a popular offer-sheet candidate among fans on social media. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t re-sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs before July 1, but he could be prone to an offer sheet if the two sides can’t agree on a number that makes everyone happy. The RFA class is much stronger than the UFA class this summer, so teams could look to offer sheets to try and shake up their rosters.

At the Very Least, It Should Be Entertaining

NHL offseasons can sometimes be disappointing, but that shouldn’t be the case this summer, and it might be for the wrong reasons, too. The weak UFA class is setting teams up for some poor decisions and contracts that will likely cause a stir among fans. But it could also make for a more active trade and offer-sheet market, and that at least provides entertainment. After all, that’s what it’s all about for the fans, right?