What does a successful 2025-26 season look like for Brandon Carlo?

Brad Treliving’s decision to bring in Brandon Carlo at the trade deadline was a bit of an unexpected move. The underwhelming season from Morgan Rielly and sharp downturn in play from Oliver Ekman-Larsson after a strong start to the season made a move for a top four defenceman a bit of a necessity, but opting for a stay at home, tougher defenceman ran counter to the narrative that the Maple Leafs needed to find a way to move pucks out of their own end and generate offence from the blueline.

Perhaps the assumption was that Carlo’s arrival would enable Morgan Rielly to play his offensive game more comfortably or that Carlo would allow Ekman-Larsson to play on a more appropriate pairing where he too could transition back into a puck mover role. Ultimately, as is often the case with acquiring a defenceman late in the season, no one was able to adjust to what was being asked of them in the time frame they were given. Rielly’s offence improved in the playoffs, Ekman-Larsson looked more at home on the third pairing, and Carlo, who helped bring about those changes, was still in a state of adaptation after spending his entire NHL career to date with the Bruins.

2025-26 brings a chance for Carlo to get a true fresh start with the Maple Leafs and to some degree that’s exciting (as much as anything involving stay-at-home defence is exciting.) And while the Leafs are down a first and a top prospect in Fraser Minten for the opportunity to see what Carlo can do, divorcing the player from the trade that brought him in will be necessary in looking at what goals and expectations are reasonable for one of the Leafs “younger” defensive options at 29 years of age.

The Goal: Do the defensive zone heavy lifting for Morgan Rielly

The plan hasn’t come together yet. Rielly nor Carlo have been traded… yet. There is a case to be made off of the limited run success of Tanev and Rielly and potential for a strong shutdown pairing of Jake McCabe and Carlo to potentially deviate from the plan, but given how smitten the Leafs are with the McCabe and Tanev pairing and a decade worth of evidence that shows Rielly likes playing with a stay-at-home partner on the right side, the goal is probably to make Rielly and Carlo work.

What needs to happen for Rielly and Carlo to work? From Carlo’s side of things he needs to adjust his expectations from playing with Hampus Lindholm. Rielly isn’t nearly as well rounded and before Craig Berube, Morgan was used to a perpetual green light to join rushes and make the stretch pass. If there is a movement back in that direction, Carlo needs to plan on being not just the last line of defence but often the only line of defence.

There will also be an adjustment to Rielly’s decision making in his own end and that’s going to mean that somehow Carlo is expected to own both the corners as well as the front of the net. The toughest assignment will always belong to him and that will take some getting used to.

Last season, Brandon Carlo had two very different partners: Nikita Zadorov on the Bruins and Morgan Rielly on the Leafs. It’s a pretty safe bet that it takes some time to adjust from Lindholm to Zadorov to Rielly. And with time Carlo might be able to be what the Leafs need him to be.

The Expectation: Play tough minutes, kill penalties, and put the puck off the glass and out

Whether it is with Rielly or anyone else, Carlo won’t have an easy job. Treliving specifically brought Carlo in with the expectation that he would continue to play the big bad Bruin style of hockey just in a Leafs uniform.

Carlo’s hit totals dropped last season, that comes from playing with Nikita Zadorov instead of Hampus Lindholm. If you put Carlo with McCabe or Simon Benoit (neither a bad option), you’d also likely see him take on more of a positional role rather than a defined archetype.

Whether on the penalty kill or even strength it will also be expected that Carlo is blocking as many shots as possible and ensuring that the Leafs always have at least one defenceman on the ice who is making the opposition pay for coming in proximity to the Leafs net.

With the exception of maybe Benoit, there is no one on the Leafs blueline that is going to be trusted less than Carlo to make a play with the puck. Close outlets, around the boards to his partner, or simply getting the puck out of the zone will be the ask for Carlo if the puck ever happens to land on his stick. The only area that might be worth exploring is if the Maple Leafs want to use his point shot at all. Given that the Leafs’ blueline is short on heavy shots and playing with Rielly will put Carlo frequently on the ice in offensive situations, it might be an expectation that Carlo shoots more.

While Carlo wasn’t bad in his time with the Leafs late last season, it seems like a training camp and set plan for him could warrant some optimism. And while the expectations for Carlo are pretty achievable, there is hope that he’s a better fit than initially advertised.