What does a successful 2025-26 season look like for Morgan Rielly?

If it weren’t for Mitch Marner and the way his time in Toronto ended, Morgan Rielly would easily be the most polarizing player among the Maple Leafs’ fanbase.

Drafted fifth overall by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2012 NHL Draft, Rielly entered the NHL as a 19-year-old and never looked back. Although he was advertised as an offensive defenceman when the Leafs selected him, his offensive potential was held back in his first few seasons as the team was in a rebuilding stage and the team wanted him to concentrate on developing his game. His breakout season came in the form of a 52-point year in 2017-18. The following year he rose to stardom with 20 goals and 72 points in 82 games, and since then, it’s been a rollercoaster of emotions.

Ever since the COVID-altered 2020-21 season, Rielly has sort of been operating on a good-year, bad-year basis. Before I go over his annual point totals, it’s important to look at this in context – Rielly still very much relies on his offensive game for the crux of his strengths. His defensive awareness has improved over the years, but he still has the mental gaffes that prevent him from getting that two-way title.

In 2021-22, he had ten goals and 68 points in 82 games. The following year, he dipped down to 41 points. In 2023-24, his point total rose again, with 58 points in 72 games, and then he dropped back down to 41 last season. An interesting note about his season-by-season performance is that in each of his last two ‘struggle’ seasons, being last year and 2022-23, the Maple Leafs advanced to the second round and he found his offensive game in the playoffs. He had four goals and 12 points in 11 games in 2022-23 and four goals en route to seven points in 13 games in 2024-25.

At this point, fans have come to expect the inconsistency from Rielly, but that’s not where the polarization comes from. It comes from the contract he’s signed to in addition to the inconsistency. He inked a eight-year contract in October 2021 worth $7.5 million annually, which he’s worth if he’s recording 60+ points, but when his past few seasons have been of such a yin and yang nature, it makes it harder to stomach the number during the bad times. Plus-minus isn’t a good category to judge a player at face value with, but it can’t fully be ignored. His minus-8 was the worst on the team last season, and he still lacks the ability to carry a pairing on his own, which is why it’s been so hard to find him a consistent partner.

The other side of the polarization is the fact that, in an era of Maple Leafs hockey where people who want to play in Toronto are valued even if it comes at the expense of skill when compared to other players, Rielly has been the face of the guys who just get it. Although his contract seems inflated when he plays poorly, it came in at a number that was probably below what he would have gotten on the open market, especially since he went on to record 68 points after signing it. He’s always spoken highly about the honour it is to play for the Leafs, and he’s never expressed a desire to go anywhere else. When you look past his shortcomings, he’s at the top of the list of guys you’d want to see hoist a Stanley Cup.

While the Maple Leafs’ defensive corps has undergone minor renovations every year since he’s been here, this time the Leafs have a strong defensive corps and one that’s entering the 2025-26 season looking the exact same as it did the year before, at least post-deadline. One hopes the familiarity will work in Rielly’s favour this season, and he can continue his trend of up-down-up-down with a rebound year offensively.

The expectation: Lead defencemen in scoring and be a contributor on the power play

If nothing else, Rielly should be expected to lead the team’s defensive corps in scoring, and if he can get back to being a regular contributor on the power play, that would do wonders for both him and the rest of the team. The Maple Leafs’ power play has been frustratingly inconsistent in recent years, especially for a team that’s so stacked with offensive talent, but his lack of a booming slap shot from the point has worked against him. Still, he has the vision and the playmaking to provide more than what he has recently, and if he can find a way to get pucks to the net and and let the guys in front of the net take care of business, it will help his confidence in a big way.

The goal: Crack 60 points 

Once you have a 60-point season as a defenceman, the expectation going forward is that you’re capable of repeating it. Rielly has shown he’s capable of this on three different occasions, with his 72 points in 2018-19, his 68 points in 2021-22, and his 58 points in 72 games in 2023-24, which he would have cracked 60 had he stayed healthy.

With the Maple Leafs swinging a deal for shutdown righty Brandon Carlo at the trade deadline last season, Rielly will have a full training camp to skate with a partner who can be trusted in his own zone and hopefully open up some opportunity for him to get back into the rush and thrive where he’s most comfortable. If this leads to another strong offensive season, fans will be much more forgiving of the defensive gaffes.