What happens if Penguins can’t move veterans?

Beyond the top six, the Penguins have many potential options for their bottom six, including some costly depth veterans who might not make the lineup. If Novak ends up as Pittsburgh’s third-line center, he could be flanked on the wings by young players Rutger McGroarty and Philip Tomasino. Both are former first-round picks and have the ability to generate offense from the third line, something the Penguins haven’t seen from their bottom two lines in quite some time.

On the fourth line, the most likely lineup would be Blake Lizotte centering newcomer Justin Brazeau and Connor Dewar. That isn’t a bad fourth line, but the Penguins could also run Noel Acciari, Danton Heinen, or Kevin Hayes, who are all veterans making north of $2MM in the final year of their contracts and will be motivated to prove they still belong in the NHL.

The bottom line is that if Rust and Rakell aren’t traded, the Penguins have a forward group capable of getting a team to a Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. However, their defensive unit is where it gets messy and might be the worst in the NHL.

General manager Kyle Dubas opted for quantity over quality this summer on the backend, which makes sense given the Penguins’ current situation as an organization. Dubas decided to buy low on a group of defensemen who badly needed a fresh start. Matt Dumba and Connor Clifton have both been effective in the past, but have recently fallen on hard times and were essentially traded to Pittsburgh along with assets as a cap dump. Their presence congests an already deep right side for the Penguins, as they currently have Kris Letang and the aforementioned Karlsson still in the top four, as well as 2024 second-round pick Harrison Brunicke, who could be NHL-ready, along with Jack St. Ivany and Philip Kemp.

The left side has even more players, but none of them are likely capable of top-pairing minutes for Pittsburgh, and they might not even have a solid second-pair option either. The Penguins’ left side is mediocre, with Ryan Graves and Owen Pickering as the most likely players to see time on the top two pairs. Beyond that, it is truly anyone’s guess, as Pittsburgh also brought in Caleb Jones, Parker Wotherspoon, and Alexander Alexeyev in free agency to join holdovers Graves, Pickering, Ryan Shea, and Sebastian Aho.

All in all, Dubas has assembled 14 potential NHL defensemen for the Penguins to use this season, with only two or possibly three capable of playing on the top two pairs. It’s a bold strategy and certainly a unique idea that will either end in total disaster or be a surprise of the season.

None of this will matter if Pittsburgh gets goaltending like they did last season, when Tristan Jarry struggled for most of the year before a late-season turnaround after two AHL demotions and a waiver wire pass. Jarry can win NHL games, as shown by his two All-Star Game appearances. However, if he plays like he did last season, Pittsburgh won’t be able to outscore the problem. But if Jarry can be league average next year and the Penguins keep the likes of Rust, Rakell, and Karlsson, that might be enough to put them in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.

The other variable in net is 24-year-old Arturs Silovs, who was acquired from the Vancouver Canucks in mid-July. The reigning MVP of the Calder Cup Playoffs last season will suit up as an Olympian next year for Latvia and has the potential to make an impact in the NHL. Whether or not he makes an impact next season remains to be seen, but again, if he is league average as a backup for the Penguins, it would be an improvement on last season’s goaltending.

If Pittsburgh gets some goaltending and scores the way they are capable of, it could turn into a feel-good story for the Penguins, especially if Malkin’s NHL swan song is near. Having Letang and Crosby there for it would be pretty special.

Now, a lot would have to go right for Pittsburgh to make the postseason, and it would be nearly impossible if they move on from the veterans on the trade block. However, if their asking price isn’t met and the Penguins are left holding onto Rust, Rakell, and Karlsson, they might surprise some people, even if they remain flawed and older. The talent is there to make some noise; it’s just not guaranteed that the talent will still be present when the season begins.

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