What the Carolina Hurricanes Should do with Martin Necas

Does the Shoe Fit?

The downside to Necas’ game is his decision-making at times and his fit into certain aspects of the Hurricanes system. Let’s start with the first. There have been many times over his career that Necas has made questionable decisions with (or without) the puck that have either killed scoring chances or worse ended up with a goal against. Ill-advised drop passes, shooting when he should pass and vice versa all make their way into Necas’ game. Then at other times Necas seems lost defensively. But every player makes mistakes, they are all human in fact.

One issue is that Necas’ high level of skill sometimes works against him in this system. For example, there are numerous times where chipping the puck off the wall out of the zone or dumping it in for a forecheck is the smart play and Necas instead opts to skate the puck. I know dump and chase is not always the most exciting hockey, but it is a big component of this team’s game. And Necas doesn’t seem to always go to the safer and more grinding style the system warrants.

Point Production

The thing about Necas is that he is in fact one of Carolina’s best offensive weapons. Last season, he led the team in points with 71 while almost hitting the 30-goal mark with 28. This season, he is third on the team in points with 26. He also has nine goals. His expected goals is near the top of the team while he also sits near the top in shots and high-danger shots.

What is interesting to look at statistically is what Necas has done physically and his “give versus his take” comparisons. What I mean is while the eye test shows that Necas leans away from some of the heavy forechecking style of the Canes, he actually is in the top ten for Hurricanes skaters in hits. Meanwhile, he has 14 takeaways compared to 13 giveaways with a -2 on-ice goal differential compared to a 10.4 expected goal differential. That final spread is one of the biggest negative statistically for Necas.

Everyone has their opinions on advanced stats (and all stats in general). But what this does tend to show is that Necas seems to be producing both more positively and less costly than many are thinking. Nevertheless, it’s no secret he remains one of the top offensive producers on the team.

Systemic Fit

So the question becomes, does Necas actually fit well or not? On one hand, he is statistically producing fairly well. For a team that is consistently looking for help in the scoring department over the last few years, Necas provides the team with an offensive threat. Not to mention that the team has actually done much better in the goal-scoring department this season with a top-rated power play and top one-third goals for record in the league.

On the other hand, does Necas’ wide-open and highly skilled game actually favour his use by a different system? For example, Necas’ game fits a style that plays more off the rush and less of a deep forecheck/low cycle style game. This doesn’t mean he can’t contribute here, but his game may favour a more wide-open transition game. With that, Carolina plays man-to-man defence. This means that unlike a zone defence where Necas, as the winger, would be waiting at the point or the half wall for an out pass, or maybe even breaking out for a stretch pass on the weak side, he may be drawn down low covering his man. Necas has the speed to play that defensive style, but it may actually work against him as far as rush and breakaway chances are concerned.

This is an interesting question for sure. It doesn’t seem like he doesn’t entirely fit the system, but is his high skill level being optimized?

Martin Necas Options for Carolina

If there is something Carolina likes to do it is attempt to maximize the value of every player. Refusing to sign or trade for guys over what they feel is their fair value combined with finding diamonds in the rough like Jalen Chatfield and Stefan Noesen, Carolina plays the “Moneyball” game.

Optimizing Value Elsewhere

Under that lens, do Eric Tulsky and the rest of management enthralled in advanced analytics see Necas as an opportunity to bring in optimal value over the value he provides on the team? And would that actually be better for Necas himself? There’s no doubt there would be suitors for Necas but the question for Carolina is not even can they get a player that in a vacuum is better than Necas. It is if they could find a player better suited for their game plan. Of course, Necas is also in the last year of his two-year contract too. That will not dictate the decision but certainly have an effect.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

Then to play devil’s advocate, Necas is a home-grown talent that does seem to enjoy playing here. He has not played with any other NHL team and has helped the team win some big games. He was drafted at a time when Carolina was barely starting to get back to relevance and is still only 24 years old. Carolina may see Necas as a player they can still develop who can help now, even if not at his absolute optimal level, and serve as a consistent top-six forward down the road.

Should I Stay or Should I Go…

Unless there is a “perfect” player that Carolina can obtain in exchange for Necas, it actually seems best to keep holding onto the Czech forward. He plays at a high pace and is one of the top producers on the team. Like various other players, Necas has shown moments of brilliance and great chemistry with other Hurricanes players. But he needs more consistency. If Brind’Amour can keep working with him to refine his skill set (as he has done the last few years) he can be a core piece of this team. He’s definitely not untouchable and I wouldn’t even go so far as to say he only gets traded for a home run deal. But Carolina doesn’t need to trade him for a backup goalie for example just because they need one. Yes, Carolina is in a win-now mode. But absent a great deal, his value to the team still seems fairly high.