A new season of NHL hockey is upon us. A new season always brings fresh optimism, but for a few Edmonton Oilers, it also brings something heavier — the weight of expectation.
There are numerous players with the potential to make a significant impact this season, either by exceeding or falling short of expectations. Whether it’s due to past failures or simply being hard to project for this season, I’m going to examine the players who will have the biggest chip on their shoulder heading into the 2025-26 season.
Starting with the most volatile position in hockey, goaltender Stuart Skinner has a critical season ahead between the pipes. The Oilers are the highest-scoring team in the NHL over the past three seasons, and they’ve given up the fewest high-danger chances and the sixth-fewest expected goals against in that timeframe. By all accounts, they have been one of the league’s best teams, except in goaltending.
Since Skinner’s arrival in 2022-23, Edmonton ranks 15th in SV% and 13th in goals-against despite being a top-tier defensive team. They need their starter to step up and prove that he can be trusted.
He had an excellent rookie season in 2022-23, but my primary concern with Skinner is the decline in his numbers over the past two seasons.
My other concern is consistency. Skinner’s highs rival any goalie in the league, but his lows come often enough to raise doubts about his long-term hold on the starter role. This is a contract year for Skinner, and the Oilers brought in a new goalie coach, Peter Aubry, to see if a new voice can help improve his game. If those factors aren’t enough to right the ship with Skinner, his time in Oil Country might come to an end sooner rather than later.
Goaltending could swing Edmonton’s season dramatically. A new and improved Skinner under Aubry could be enough to make them Stanley Cup favourites. At the same time, a disaster season could force the Oilers to finally seek goaltending help from outside the organization or roll the dice on a Connor Ingram resurgence.
Much like Skinner, Darnell Nurse’s level of consistency and performance in the playoffs will be key factors in Edmonton’s season. I wrote a piece last week going into detail on what Nurse needs to do this season, so I’ll keep it brief here.
Nurse is a top-four defenseman for this team, and we’ve watched him make a significant impact over the years. Unfortunately, when under pressure in the postseason, he has had a lot of difficulty making plays with the puck.
The result is an alarming -14 goal differential at 5-on-5 with Nurse on the ice for the Oilers in their last three playoff runs. It’s a stark contrast to their +23 differential in the non-Nurse minutes.
Despite past inconsistencies, there is reason for optimism. Nurse had a ton of success playing next to Jake Walman down the stretch last season, so a whole year together presents a new opportunity to stabilize the second pair once and for all.
The Oilers traded for Trent Frederic last season, during an injury-riddled year in Boston that saw his numbers plummet. He was unable to get healthy and make the impact that he wanted for Edmonton in the playoffs, but the team still decided to sign him to an eight-year contract extension carrying an AAV of $3.85M.
Frederic possesses the tools that coaches dream of: speed, size, physicality, and solid offensive production. From 2022-2024, his point-scoring rates at 5-on-5 would’ve ranked 5th best on the Oilers (minimum 30 GP), behind only Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Warren Foegele.
Edmonton made a big bet on Frederic despite a difficult season last year. It’s an understandable one given his success when healthy, but now he needs to deliver and prove them right.
With Hyman out until November while he continues to rehab the wrist injury he suffered in the playoffs, there will be some significant opportunities for Frederic to get the ball rolling. Eight years is a long time, and if things don’t go well this season, it will start looking even longer.
David Tomášek received several NHL offers over the years. After a standout season in which he led the SHL in scoring with 57 points in 47 games, he finally decided to make the move to North America.
Tomášek is truly a wildcard this season. You never know how European stars will perform when making the move to the NHL, but he has the upside to be a valuable player for the Oilers.
He was a versatile player for Färjestad BK, a force at even strength, on the power play, and in the faceoff circle. He has also received praise from scouts on his play without the puck.
With Hyman sidelined to start the season, Tomášek has been taking reps on the top power play unit in a net-front role. His size and offensive prowess give him the potential to score a lot of goals, especially surrounded by some of the best players in the world.
At 29 years old, Tomášek won’t have much more time to prove that he can succeed in the NHL. This season might be his only chance. He has an opportunity to be an excellent find for the Oilers if he can provide meaningful secondary scoring.
Uncertainty is the theme of this season for the Oilers. While most analysts are projecting them to contend again, it’s tough to know just how good they can be with their refreshed lineup. Are they Stanley Cup favourites, or will this younger team take a slight step back?
If nothing else, the supporting cast this season will provide plenty of new line combinations, opportunities, and intrigue for fans and analysts to dissect. Edmonton’s core group remains the gold standard in the NHL, but can key supporting players thrive under pressure to get them over the hump? That will be the ultimate question for the 2025-26 season.
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