Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

Why the Lightning are absolutely scary right now

Originally posted on Daily Faceoff | By Kyle Morton | Last updated Mar 24, 2026 12:35 PM ET

It’s been quite some time since the Tampa Bay Lightning made legitimate noise in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that may all change this year.

After winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, the Bolts fell to the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Final, and they haven’t won a playoff series in three attempts since then.

A 2023 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs was backed up by consecutive first-round losses to the Panthers in the Battle of Florida, and now this iteration of the Lightning’s core, with plenty of leaders still remaining from the back-to-back championships, is looking for its first taste of playoff success.

With goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy putting up his best season in years, and Tampa Bay delivering outstanding results on special teams to go with strong underlying numbers at 5-on-5, there’s plenty of reason to believe they’ll get the job done this spring.

The last 10 Stanley Cup winners :

– 9/10 were top 10 in 5v5 GF%
– 8/10 were top 12 in 5v5 xGF%
– 10/10 were top 12 in 5v5 SV%
– 9/10 were top 12 in PP% + PK%
– 9/10 were top half in PP%

Right now, only ONE team checks all 5: Tampa Bay Lightning
— Brock Seguin (@Brock_Seguin) March 23, 2026

On Monday’s episode of Daily Faceoff LIVE, host Tyler Yaremchuk and co-host and former NHL goaltender Carter Hutton were joined by Daily Faceoff Managing Fantasy Editor Brock Seguin to discuss why the Lightning check all the boxes you look for in a real, clear-cut Stanley Cup contender.

Carter Hutton: You broke down the last 10 years Stanley Cup champions, and what did you come to find? Because I saw your tweet; I thought this unbelievable number here.

Brock Seguin: Nine out of ten Stanley Cup winners were top 10 in 5v5 goals for percentage. They were top 12 in 5v5 expected goals percentage, top 12 in 5v5 save percentage, top 12 in power play plus penalty kill percentage, and then top half in the league just in power play percentage. Honestly, like all basically every champion over those 10 years was like top 10 in all those. The one outlier that kind of drags thing down was the the Vegas Golden Knights Stanley Cup run, but I looked at it, and they were the stats that most closely correlated with all of those Stanley Cup champions, and I just want to say like who is in the running this year, and the Tampa Bay Lightning were the only team that checked the box in all five of those categories. They’re right on the edge there in terms of their 5v5 save percentage, right at the 12 spot, but they’ve got Andrei Vasilevsky, so those numbers are probably being dragged down by Jonas Johansson just a tad. So yeah, the Lightning the only team that checks the box in all five.

You can watch the full segment and the rest of the episode below…

This article first appeared on Daily Faceoff and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: